COVID betting aftermath

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arbusers
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arbusers

COVID betting aftermath
« on: September 01, 2020, 10:22:20 AM »

These last days I had several discussions with a number of industry figures, spanning from players to mid-high level managers. I also have a very accurate personal opinion, based on figures and volumes that I see in e-wallets and agents.

A quick recap of the current state of play:
1. Autumn 2019, Bet365 pulling out of PaySafe massively. That was the first slap for many.
2. February-March 2020, COVID comes like a hurricane.
3. Mid-March and especially April 2020, betting markets collapse. Only 5% or less of volumes during these 2 months.
4. May-June-July 2020, some normality starts to come back. Many believe to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
5. August 2020, markets are frozen again due to the end of season and summer holidays.

I can say that all actors, all managers, all shareholders are crossing their figures to see what happens after 11-12th of September. These are the days when most markets come back to life. Until mid-October, we will all know what the impact of Covid19 was in the industry. We will be able to compare figures and volumes with September-October 2019 and thus animate the aftermath.

So far, I see well-respected companies and individuals, struggling to stay alive, reducing costs, and save the last cent hidden under the table. Some of these individuals lost their previous status and moved to ''Non-performing area'' or, even worse, moved to the black side of the business.

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GreenScalper
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2020, 01:33:50 PM »

The picture isn't that bad at all. Football, NBA, MLB, horse racing are all going strong at the moment. Even tennis finally have serious tournaments. I bet month on month August 2020 was much better than August 2019 for many companies. Really don't agree that markets were frozen during August.
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Wolfie
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2020, 01:39:46 PM »

If you take only August, the picture its not bad. But seeing the whole situation with corona, a lot of smart gamblers are out of their game.
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GreenScalper
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2020, 06:04:52 PM »

@Arbusers, correct me if I am wrong, but the whole analysis feels too much European based, where football is the king and sports like baseball are pretty much insignificant. For US and LATAM operators MLB is huge, NBA is huge. I dare to say things are looking good for such operators. Even for European operators the worst is over as all football leagues are back.
As for smart gamblers if they are out of business after just 2-3 months without events maybe they weren't so smart in the first place.
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Matis77
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Matis77

Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2020, 06:45:18 PM »

and the NBA  and southamerican leagues, I think we have enough markets to do something.
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barret19
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2020, 12:23:07 AM »

Most bet365 locusts are out of the game also due to the new verifications and ewallet restrictions, but im pretty sure there are still plenty of smart gamblers on certain niches or locals.
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justanarber
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2020, 06:57:28 AM »

Most bet365 locusts are out of the game also due to the new verifications and ewallet restrictions, but im pretty sure there are still plenty of smart gamblers on certain niches or locals.

why do you say locusts? this job is purely about profit, how you take money from the bookmakers doesn't matter as long as you do,
this is a very inaccurate and unfair term to use, I am sure bookmakers and a lot of ordinary punters would refer to arbers as "locusts".
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AlexNotman1
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2020, 08:28:08 AM »

Most bet365 locusts are out of the game also due to the new verifications and ewallet restrictions, but im pretty sure there are still plenty of smart gamblers on certain niches or locals.

why do you say locusts? this job is purely about profit, how you take money from the bookmakers doesn't matter as long as you do,
this is a very inaccurate and unfair term to use, I am sure bookmakers and a lot of ordinary punters would refer to arbers as "locusts".

Simple. Loads of people don't care about future. As abovementioned "locusts". They want to milk the cow NOW. Lot of opportunities could last years if played right but some of them just don't care, they want a piece of cake now. So I call how I want people who kill the cow and my future income.
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2020, 10:22:50 AM »

Im back to full time "work"now.  I have noticed Betfair markets becoming much stronger and more liquid, which was the last thing is was expecting.  My first 2 weeks back earnings are similar to pre covid.
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justanarber
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2020, 11:01:55 AM »

Most bet365 locusts are out of the game also due to the new verifications and ewallet restrictions, but im pretty sure there are still plenty of smart gamblers on certain niches or locals.

why do you say locusts? this job is purely about profit, how you take money from the bookmakers doesn't matter as long as you do,
this is a very inaccurate and unfair term to use, I am sure bookmakers and a lot of ordinary punters would refer to arbers as "locusts".

Simple. Loads of people don't care about future. As abovementioned "locusts". They want to milk the cow NOW. Lot of opportunities could last years if played right but some of them just don't care, they want a piece of cake now. So I call how I want people who kill the cow and my future income.

people care about their own profits and behave accordingly, for every single arbuser it's all about profit, personally I wish I had the resources
these locusts have, I'm sure I'd be doing what they do/did and I'm sure most if not all on here would too?

the future is uncertain, you have to strike when the iron is hot and make as much as you can, when you can.

since the resumption of the bundesliga (thank you Angela Merkel) my earnings went back to normal and have continued that way
and with the right resources??? I'd expect that in the short term to continue with covid making no difference but as I said the future is
uncertain and name calling people with better resources/profits is futile and based on jealousy.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2020, 11:12:06 AM »

@Arbusers, correct me if I am wrong, but the whole analysis feels too much European based, where football is the king and sports like baseball are pretty much insignificant. For US and LATAM operators MLB is huge, NBA is huge. I dare to say things are looking good for such operators. Even for European operators the worst is over as all football leagues are back.
As for smart gamblers if they are out of business after just 2-3 months without events maybe they weren't so smart in the first place.

The majority of smart betting comes from Europe. I really can't estimate accurately, but I d say 80% of smart betting action comes from Europe.
I m not sure where your optimism is based, but for sure, no betting operator believes the worst is over. At this point, no one knows and this is the spirit of my post.
As previously said, the best lesson one could get from the COVID betting crisis, is called multidisciplinary. Anyone with just 1 source of profit will be shaken out, one way or another, now, or later.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2020, 11:13:30 AM »

Most bet365 locusts are out of the game also due to the new verifications and ewallet restrictions, but im pretty sure there are still plenty of smart gamblers on certain niches or locals.

It is crystal clear, that locusts caused these restrictions. But the damage in for everyone, not just locusts.
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arbusers
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2020, 11:14:28 AM »

why do you say locusts? this job is purely about profit, how you take money from the bookmakers doesn't matter as long as you do,
this is a very inaccurate and unfair term to use, I am sure bookmakers and a lot of ordinary punters would refer to arbers as "locusts".

It is not clear if you really know what locusts are.
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justanarber
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justanarber

Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2020, 11:42:43 AM »

why do you say locusts? this job is purely about profit, how you take money from the bookmakers doesn't matter as long as you do,
this is a very inaccurate and unfair term to use, I am sure bookmakers and a lot of ordinary punters would refer to arbers as "locusts".

It is not clear if you really know what locusts are.

no I do not, if it's someone who has access to 1000's of accounts and attacks arbing ferociously with them then of course it's not good for other arbers as it causes the bookmaker to get smarter and be more defensive but at the same time this someone is making lots of cash, am I to believe there are people who would turn down these profits given the same opportunity out of morals and to protect his fellow arber?

honestly, it's every man for themselves, people who claim otherwise? well....?

but maybe I am wrong and locust is something else?
« Last Edit: September 02, 2020, 11:44:49 AM by justanarber » Logged
Wolfie
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Re: COVID betting aftermath
« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2020, 11:57:09 AM »

Its the fear of missing out. Locusts thinking pattern is if i dont do it, some other will milk the cow. What tends to make this centralized is the fact that only a few people win enough from gambling to be eager to find new solutions for problems. And this people tend to outsource some things and do them massively.
What is killing smart gambling is making same action in many accounts simultaneously.
When many accs do same things its very easy for bookies to recognize them. Bookies make decision on patterns.
For example most of bonus hunting people were using ewallets. This led to ewallet deposit being a not able to claim bonus.
Using alert services for arbing led to many people hitting same lines resulting in acc limitation.
Same with alert service value betting.
Most of winning accs were using skrill and neteller, this led bet365 to remove them entirely.
So everything that is done massively its recognized by bookies.
Its a war. You can win battles but bookies win the war. But if you win 3-4 battles
3 years each, you may win money you cant make in lifetime.
So this is smart gambling.
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