Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting

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nasd91
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nasd91

Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« on: September 24, 2020, 11:38:20 AM »

How does one go about sizing multiple bets on the same event under different lines without getting over-exposed? Better yet what is the best, most optimal way to go about it?

Hypothetically let’s say that over tens of thousands of bets a player knows the following:
Bets between 1.80-2.00 have 4% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.60-1.80 have a 3% edge on evg.
Bets between 1.40-1.60 have a 2% edge on avg.

On some events the player is able to bet on just one of the three categories, on some he can bets on two of the three categories and on some he bets on all three of them.

The player is a value bettor and executes 2000-4000 bets per month.

The bets are not exclusive.

An example of when all three categories are bet on would look something like this:
Home +0 @ 1.95, Home +0.25 @ 1.65, Home +0.5 @1.40

I assume by taking all three bets instead of only the first one (Home +0 @ 1.95), the player can produce greater turnover, therefore greater P/L, but will increase size of swings. Am I right to think so?

What would be the optimal way to spread the risk across multiple bets?

Thanks in advance!
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De Graaf
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De Graaf

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2020, 08:06:12 PM »

Given your hypothetical about known edge, you would always take the home 0 in your example.

Think of your bet size, however you calculate it, as a cap (max limit). Why would you spread your limit to subpar positions?

You are right to think that betting all three will increase returns at the expense of swings, but this is not the contradictory with the above. If you bet 2% per bet flat, and you want to hit all three bets with a total size of 5% percent, with some distribution of the bets, you are better off hitting home 0 with 5%.

Nonetheless it may be very valuable sometimes to go with the safer options in order to reduce swings, rather than increase returns, which is more favorable to my mind, i.e. intentionally hit the home +.25 with my hypothetical 2% or spread thr max bet size with some distribution.

Edit: this turned out messy. Tldr is:
You take the best option fully or distribute among subpar options in order to reduce swings.
Distributing for returns (more than limit) in any variation will give you overexposure and potential heartache.

Cheers
« Last Edit: September 24, 2020, 08:12:12 PM by De Graaf » Logged
jazzz
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jazzz

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 04:32:47 PM »

Absolutely agree with De Graaf.

In terms of swings (downstreak, variance, etc.) they are expected to be lower for higher probabilities. Meaning the odds of 1.40-1.60 are not exposed to those at the same level the odds 1.80-2.00 do.
From the other hand, higher edge = lower swings.

In the long term higher edge will bring you higher return.
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barret19
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barret19

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2020, 07:41:41 PM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.
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nasd91
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nasd91

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2020, 04:07:54 AM »

Thanks for your input guys, much appreciated!
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2020, 10:27:43 AM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.

I agree. Still losing in sharp side and winning in soft but didn't lose much in sharp side this month. However, when we look overall, nothing changed in my opinion. Since last 4 months, lost around 80k in asian/betfair side while softbook side was +150k. Pinnacle lean is still effective in my opinion.

By the way, there's something ''interesting'' I noticed recently. I'm covering majority of my arbs via Betfair specially in rugby and eastern leagues such as Qatar. These bets which I cover in Betfair have a higher win rate then the ones I cover in Pinnacle. Something to consider when you're arbing. In arbs like these, I just cover the risk and left all the profit on softbookie side. Sometimes I take %20 risk. Well, you can call it ''Light'' Value Betting :D

« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 02:18:50 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
risilloch
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risilloch

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2020, 09:24:26 PM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.

Based on my results I no longer consider Pinnacle (and its variants) sharp in my area of interest. And they have not been so for the last 18 months.
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Mamba333
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Mamba333

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 09:54:23 PM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.

Based on my results I no longer consider Pinnacle (and its variants) sharp in my area of interest. And they have not been so for the last 18 months.
So what do you using for value betting reference?
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risilloch
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risilloch

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 09:26:05 PM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.

Based on my results I no longer consider Pinnacle (and its variants) sharp in my area of interest. And they have not been so for the last 18 months.
So what do you using for value betting reference?

i'm now using my own analysis
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2020, 10:58:20 PM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.
I think it is, but today it is efficient only in some markets. "The more liquidity, the better the reference" still applies today I think.

- Some odd sources at other bookmakers seem technically tied to pinnacle, so when the line changes in one direction, so does the bookmaker's.
- Pinnacle reduced their liquidity significantly on many of their markets a couple of years ago.

Here is a hypothesis: The result of the two statements above is that it is easier today to influence the market if you would. You may try it for yourself one day. Put 100 euro on a small market at pinnacle and see the market follow. Do it several times and you may see a small landslide. It is kind of disproportionate that one can move the odds via 100 euro on pinnacle and thereafter put 200 euro in the local offline betting machine.

If you only bet on big markets I wouldn't bother, but if you bet on small markets, you should consider the idea that pinnacle lines are being used to play tricks with the market and that you should try not be caught on the wrong side.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2020, 04:47:07 AM »

This month been terrible for most value bettors.
I wonder if pinnacle is still efficient as before covid19. I think having no fans at matches can have impact on some teams and markets are not evaluating this properly.

A number of bookmakers are not evaluating properly certain markets, due to Covid19 new reality. To better illustrate what I am saying, I will simply make a rhetorical question.
FIFA, has approved changes to the substitutions rule to take account of the impact of the virus on the sport. Teams were allowed to make a maximum of five substitutions per game. This created some more extra time per game. Was this extra time taken into consideration by all bookmakers?

If you use Pinnacle as a reference you may want to review your tactics for the reasons previously mentioned by Vidablue. You might also need to read our opinion about Pinnacle as the last man standing here: https://arbusers.com/portal/last-man-standing-pinnacle/

Most probably you are right to say ''this month is terrible for value bettors'', but I m observing a couple-three value betting projects that do not use Pinnacle as a reference, and these projects are working like beauties.
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risilloch
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risilloch

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2020, 12:34:05 PM »


A number of bookmakers are not evaluating properly certain markets, due to Covid19 new reality.

I think that is pretty much what is happening.
eg traditional home advantage has been significantly eroded due to empty stadiums.

I believe the models being used by those who set odds are based on pre-Covid conditions
(or possibly slowly evolving to account for Covid but no where near being finalised)

As a result the disruption due to Covid should be considered as a period of opportunity for those who are observant \ smart.


Vidablue, I acknowledge a good deal of value to your insights. I have made that same observation and come to that particular conclusion also. Its commendable that you have warned the community about a possible danger but you should remember that the bookmakers are on here also and broadcasting certain information can cause these 'loopholes' to disappear as the bookmakers tighten up their operations based on what they learn here.

It could be that someone is exploiting a 'loophole' and when it becomes public knowledge in the forum the bookies close it down. In this instance it think your post is sufficiently vague that nobody will lose a source of income as a consequence.

However, a few years back Yngwie did something similar and within a week that loophole was closed down and a nice source of income vanished.

I don't mean to lecture anyone and the point of this forum is to share experience \ knowledge and so evolve our business.
But sometimes we can share too much to the detriment of our comrades.


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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Betting multiple lines on same event when value betting
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2020, 01:35:02 PM »

sometimes we can share too much to the detriment of our comrades.
Sure. It is often a balancing act to reveal enough information that adds value to the discussions, while not damaging oneself or others. Also, it can be a double-edged sword where information helps out some members while it (unintentionally) exposes others. Thank you for reminding me risilloch. It is much appreciated and I will give it increased thought.

I hope that this post was sufficiently vague as you mention. It probably is. After all, any bookmaker in the industry should know that provoked false signals exist all the time and that pinnacle is considered market leader, even in small markets.
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