Long on ETH

Poll
Question: Our good member CharlieSheen99 suggested that we start a new board in our forum dedicated to cryptos only. What do you think?
Yes, start the board.
No, no need for it.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 9
Author Topic: Long on ETH  (Read 9267 times)
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Long on ETH
« on: October 27, 2020, 08:44:23 AM »
0

There is no question about it, the elephant in the room is called BTC. A prudent investor should look for ways to maximize his profits while diminishing his risks. In my last post in the BTC thread, I concluded that a cryptocurrency portfolio should include both BTC and ETH in an 80/20 analogy. Read here: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7174.msg79685#msg79685
Now I would like to explain why I believe ETH should be in our portfolio. There are some good reasons for that:

1. When BTC was born in 2009 it took 100% of the total market cap of all cryptos. After BTC, a number of other cryptocurrencies appeared in the market, and for various reasons they occupied a part of the pie. 11 years after the birth of BTC, there is a trend showing that BTC part of the total market cap is slowly going down. We will not further elaborate on the reasons for that phenomenon, we will just simply accept it.
2. The 2nd most popular cryptocurrency in ETH. If we take a look at historical data we will find out there is a dependency between BTC and ETH prices. The most important observation, says that when BTC is consolidating, ETH is going up. During these last months, we witnessed the increase of BTC price and we exploited it accordingly resulting in good profits.
3. Taking a look at BTCs technicals I conclude there is a good possibility that its price will consolidate here for a substantial time. That is why I am not willing to increase my positions further in BTC, unless some discounts make it more lucrative. Have no doubt, we started a big positive cycle for BTC and in the end, the price will amaze us. Now I am talking about a time window where we should accumulate ETH more than BTC.
4. Realistically, no-one knows how big that window will be, but it is valid to say that it will be there for the next 1 to 3 months. This is the time when we should accumulate our ETH position in order to accomplish the 80/20 analogy I suggested before. It would be wrong to dive in with the head and get this position straight away. I would suggest a Dollar Cost Averaging tactic where we divide the total capital to be invested in BTC in 12 equal parts, and each week we buy some more. If the price goes down, we buy some more, if it goes up we buy less.

As you understand, these are complex calculations with several unknown factors. We are now trying to find a tactic to maximize our profits in the long run.
To sum up, we keep our BTC positions as they are, and we invest more in ETH. If now BTC position is ready, this should be accomplished in the coming period, even at these price levels, provided that we will not need that funds in the long run.

In the following graph, see how ETH outperformed BTC since the start of the pandemics.

BTC ETH.png


* BTC ETH.png (922.36 kB, 2878x1712 - viewed 534 times.)
« Last Edit: October 27, 2020, 08:50:17 AM by arbusers » Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2020, 03:58:06 PM »
0

The price of ETH depends a lot on the price of BTC. They are indeed correlated, but the magic of this correlation is hiding in the way it switches from positive to negative.
We witnessed a remarkable BTC rally during these last weeks, which was followed by a more moderate ETH rally. The dynamic of many crypto-assets is immense and it is fueled by the money printing in the US and elsewhere. BTC clearly outperformed ETH, but it seems to me that we are closing to the day when ETH will outperform BTC. That said, it is now time to accumulate more ETH than BTC. In fact, I find it intolerable to accumulate more BTC at these prices, when ETH has a perfect dynamic. The following ETH/BTC chart shows that soon the tide will change. This will happen, most probably, in November and December 2020.

BTC:ETH.png

Have no doubt we started a long positive cycle for cryptocurrencies and investing in them is the right thing to do, provided that you are a long-term investor. Those who will timely and correctly jump from 1 crypto-currency to another, will maximize their profits.


* BTC:ETH.png (182.58 kB, 2042x1076 - viewed 487 times.)
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2020, 07:05:43 AM »
0

There is no question about it we are in a new cycle for cryptocurrencies. Over the years we are noticing that cycles of the cryptomarket are lengthening. Even though we know the destination, the road is very bumpy. As previously mentioned BTC is losing market share in the long run and altcoins are taking a part in market capitalization. The most important altcoin is ETH.
The logic of this thread is to use an ETH/BTC tug of war, in order to jump from one coin to another, in a way where we are maximizing our profits. We avoid deep downs when possible, and we exploit bubbles to the maximum extend. Thus, our final goal is to outperform the market during, and by the end of the cycle.
At this point in time, it seems to me that a very good distribution of cryptos within a portfolio would be 70% BTC and 30% ETH. It would be a mistake to jump into the market in an ''all in'' style for obvious reasons. Let's not forget that cryptos are more unpredictable than stock markets. Thus, a prudent investor should jump in gradually in a DCA style (Dollar Cost Averaging).
This is the time when we should buy ETH. We identify an accumulation zone that started at the beginning of November and will end most probably by the end of December. We then expect ETH to outperform BTC in Q1 2021.
I m visualizing this in the following graph:

ETHBTC.png

ETH and BTC are connected in various ways and we analyzed their positive or negative correlation.
If you intend to follow this thread (and BTCs as well) you must not think in terms of USD or EUR. You should think in terms of ETH and BTC. We are not trying to beat the USD or EUR price of any cryptocurrency. This will be fulfilled by the market itself. We are trying to maximize our overall profit during and by the end of this cycle.
To sum up, we don't care if the price of any cryptocurrency is X or 2X at the end of the cycle. This will be decided by the market. We are trying to have as many cryptocurrencies as possible at any given time, including the end of the cycle. If we achive that, then we can think in USD and EUR terms.


* ETHBTC.png (332.37 kB, 1764x1152 - viewed 448 times.)
Logged
apoel81
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 21
Posts: 284


View Profile

apoel81

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2020, 09:56:57 AM »
0

Much like your analyses mate, let's go ETH!
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2020, 03:33:50 PM »
0

With BTC going parabolic, several factors are aligning to confirm our thinking.

1. The ETHBTC is getting closer and closer to our support line. The prudent investor is not getting ''all in'' at any given point. A DCA style of accumulating ETH is the best way to jump into the market at this given point.
2. This move coincides with the BTC price closing into 20.000$.
3. In addition, we have a positive divergence in the RSI of the ETHBTC.

Cryptos are more volatile than stock markets and they do not forgive those who leave everything for the last minute. You could wake up one morning and see your crypto going up or down by 30%. We have seen these several times.

The smartest money is now selling BTC to buy ETH. The dumb money is simply buying BTC.

RSI positivi divergence.png


* RSI positivi divergence.png (532.75 kB, 1900x1134 - viewed 419 times.)
Logged
apoel81
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 21
Posts: 284


View Profile

apoel81

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2020, 04:40:14 PM »
0

With BTC going parabolic, several factors are aligning to confirm our thinking.

1. The ETHBTC is getting closer and closer to our support line. The prudent investor is not getting ''all in'' at any given point. A DCA style of accumulating ETH is the best way to jump into the market at this given point.
2. This move coincides with the BTC price closing into 20.000$.
3. In addition, we have a positive divergence in the RSI of the ETHBTC.

Cryptos are more volatile than stock markets and they do not forgive those who leave everything for the last minute. You could wake up one morning and see your crypto going up or down by 30%. We have seen these several times.

The smartest money is now selling BTC to buy ETH. The dumb money is simply buying BTC.

RSI positivi divergence.png

what proportion of BTC and ETH are you suggesting now mate?
Logged
CharlieSheen99
Has experience
**

Karma: 9
Posts: 249


View Profile

CharlieSheen99

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2020, 05:15:56 PM »
0

Which cryptos do you think that we should take in mind?

Other question is:

I see a website with hundreds of cryptocurrencies, and i see some cryptos that goes up 10.000% in one day. Of course will be others that went down 99% in 24 hours.

Anyway, could be a possibility to bet a little amount of money in a lot of small cryptos, just waiting for a jump like this.

Of course, we should consider other things, like market capitalization, or 24 hours volume.

If someone with more expertise could give us his opinion, and the risks of really small cryptos, i would like to hear.

cheers
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2020, 06:03:35 PM »
0

I believe the cryptos you should focus on are primarily BTC and ETH.
Other than that, ADA and Link might be worth a tiny part of your portfolio.
Logged
apoel81
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 21
Posts: 284


View Profile

apoel81

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2020, 06:36:50 PM »
0

I believe the cryptos you should focus on are primarily BTC and ETH.
Other than that, ADA and Link might be worth a tiny part of your portfolio.

When you say to swap btc and for ETH, is there any percentage of BTC we shall keep mate?
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2020, 06:48:22 PM »
0

When I started this thread I was suggesting a distribution of 80% BTC and 20% ETH. Later, I changed this to 70% BTC and 30% ETH, because of the very good potential of ETH.

That said, if your portfolio is 100% BTC and you want to swap 30% to ETH, you should follow a DCA tactic, spreading your transactions until the end of December. However, this should not be taken for granted, because the trend could surprise us earlier, or, request more time until it changes.

Alternatively, if you dont want to sell your BTC, you could buy ETH with fiat money.
Logged
apoel81
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 21
Posts: 284


View Profile

apoel81

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2020, 07:01:49 PM »
0

When I started this thread I was suggesting a distribution of 80% BTC and 20% ETH. Later, I changed this to 70% BTC and 30% ETH, because of the very good potential of ETH.

That said, if your portfolio is 100% BTC and you want to swap 30% to ETH, you should follow a DCA tactic, spreading your transactions until the end of December. However, this should not be taken for granted, because the trend could surprise us earlier, or, request more time until it changes.

Alternatively, if you dont want to sell your BTC, you could buy ETH with fiat money.

Thanks mate, i already followed the 70-30% advice. For a moment i thought you proposed to swap all btc's for ETH.
Logged
neopas
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 22
Posts: 315


View Profile

neopas

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 06:34:04 AM »
0

Already in profit.
When do we sell to BTC? Or when do we go to fiat again?
Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2020, 04:15:11 PM »
0

The trade is already in our favor and I would stop accumulating ETH at this point.
Look how perfectly the tails are touching our line, paying attention to the last cent. At the same moment, these tails are showing us that the market gives only half-opened windows of opportunity. Players must be vigilant to jump in for as long as the windows are half-open. The rest will simply watch.

Perfection.png

Frankly, I would prefer this window to stay open for a longer time, until the end of December. However, we alerted our members 4 weeks ago, and one would say this was a wide-open door and not a half-opened window.

Already in profit.
When do we sell to BTC? Or when do we go to fiat again?

It is too early to take profits from the table. We still have a long way to go. We do not even know if the price turns down again in order to puzzle people. We have to see. But when the time comes to sell our ETH, we will again sell them in a DCA manner.

I m putting a lot of effort into these analyses about stocks and cryptos, and I hope you do take advantage of what is offered for free.


* Perfection.png (433.05 kB, 2250x1470 - viewed 357 times.)
Logged
apoel81
To become a Pro
***

Karma: 21
Posts: 284


View Profile

apoel81

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2020, 10:00:10 PM »
0

[quote author=arbusers link=topic=7623.msg80326#msg80326 date=1606148111

I m putting a lot of effort into these analyses about stocks and cryptos, and I hope you do take advantage of what is offered for free.
[/quote]

keep them coming mate, your analyses looks descent. Followed last 4-5 analyses with descent results, much appreciated.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 07:34:43 AM by apoel81 » Logged
arbusers
Administrator
Totally Pro
*****

Karma: 500
Posts: 4602



View Profile WWW

arbusers

Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2020, 01:01:59 PM »
0

I want to update you on where we stand at this trade.
Basically, it goes very well so far. We are already in profit as the price stands at 0.0315. ETH is following all rallies that BTC does, but so far it didn't give us a rally independently from BTC. That is why we believe this rally against BTC will happen in the months to come. Of course, we can't put a date on that rally, but we speculate it will happen soon and as a result, ETH will outperform BTC.
If we should put a target in this rally, we can set as a 1st (but not last) target the 0.0400 level. This is 27% above current levels. When the time is right, we will discuss the next targets.
For the time being, with ETH above 500EUR/600USD I must tell you that I no longer accumulate ETH in a DCA style. I already have my position built at 30% of my entire cryptos portfolio. I would like to remind you that for now, I suggest an allocation of 70/30 BTC/ETH.
Here is the graph plotting my way of thinking.

ETH:BTC last.png


* ETH:BTC last.png (482.74 kB, 1808x1156 - viewed 313 times.)
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 9
Print