Arbusers

apoel81 wrote:

arbusers wrote:

apoel81 wrote: what i don't understand is why Tesla didn't buy 2 weeks ago. He pumped the price with his tweet only to buy 2 weeks later at a higher price?

In fact, if you read Tesla's announcement you ll find out they bought in mid January.

Unless i miss something, it says that they changed investment policy on January, not that they bought on January.

https://imgur.com/a/RkCZvfJ

Anyway personally i am not a fan of such moves.

Let's say Tesla bought at 30.000 and they pump the price let's say to 60.000. Tesla slowly sold some btc and then Elon Musk wake up one day and writes ''Bitcoing is overvalued'' and price will be back to 30.000

Not really, because the mere announcement of Tesla buying coins made thousands of others buy coins as well, as long as a portion of those people hold or become adopters, the price will be higher in the long run than it was where it started before the announcement even is Tesla sells again.  Of course an announcement of them selling coins will have the same effect.

I would like to speak some more about the nature and the length of the current cycle.

If you follow this thread (and the ETH one) since the very start you have seen me mentioning market maturity many times. If BTC price goes up vertically then we should be expecting the cycle to end within some days. If price takes breaths and intermissions, we will see a higher final price at the end of the cycle. That is why pullbacks like those we observed during January are important. More pullbacks will result to a higher price in the end. Days that we have +10% in the price are not helping us, no matter how odd this might sound. It is better to have 5 days with +2% each, than 1 day with +10%.

After passing the previous ATHs, there is not much we can do with classic technical analysis. In addition, the Elliot Wave Theory looks like not working as the 1.618 analogy is long ago destroyed by the BTC price. Who knows which Fibo level proves right? It could be 2.618, 3,618, whatever.

What is left, is market sentiment, our loyal RSI, and a decent Dynamic Dollar Cost averaging staking system. That said, I spent 1000s of hours these last months in order to understand the nature of this cycle and find tools that would help me identify a top. Since y axis is not helping much, I decided to focus on the x axis. That is time. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable will increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.

To work on the x axis instead of the y, I had to build new metrics. Like our loyal RSI, these metrics gain or lose momentum in the depth of time and that means that today’s extrapolations will not be valid tomorrow. But at least, I managed to reduced randomness a lot. These metrics, or indicators, seem to be working well in simulations of the past cycles behaviours.

Because of this, my future transactions will be based in both price and time, and not only price as I did so far. This is a change of tactic as my goal is to get as closer as I can to the top.

From Reddit. That was 1 month ago.

arbusers wrote: From Reddit. That was 1 month ago.

[attachment id=0 msg=82550]

nypost.com/2021/02/09/reddit-user-says-post-on-800m-tesla-bitcoin-buy-was-a-hoax/

bigtuna wrote:

arbusers wrote: From Reddit. That was 1 month ago.

[attachment id=0 msg=82550]

nypost.com/2021/02/09/reddit-user-says-post-on-800m-tesla-bitcoin-buy-was-a-hoax/

The truth is on the details.
He explain how many btc bought Tesla, he explain the price, and the manner: with a bot.
After just one month, his post become truth.

Now he says that he took LSD, and wrote this bullshit.

I believe that this guy now wants to cover himself for his little discretion, and his job is in doubt.

I thought to highlight some of the good quotes of both BTC and ETH threads:

1. Every passing day brings us closer to the top (this is a new one and self evident).

2. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.

3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. Let’s renew our meeting for the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith?

4. I do not bite the New Paradigm. The more it changes, the more it remains the same. This time is not different.

A new idea incubates in my mind. The top of the BTC cycle, could highlight a top in the stock markets too.

arbusers wrote: 3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. Let’s renew our meeting for the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith?

I'm mildly tempted to contend with 3, just for the sake of a healthy dialogue. The architecture of Bitcoin et al implies the absence of faith, by design. In fact, that is the critical point of the whole domain. Two generals of Byzantium can only communicate cohesively without a 3rd party intermidiary only if:
- the state of things is known
- the rules of the game are known
- the knowing of the two above is constant through time.

So the substance of the protocol is just there, agnostic, like any other technology.

Hope I havent misunderstood your point 3 and I do agree with number 4.

Cheers

De Graaf wrote:

arbusers wrote: 3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. Let’s renew our meeting for the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith?

I'm mildly tempted to contend with 3, just for the sake of a healthy dialogue. The architecture of Bitcoin et al implies the absence of faith, by design. In fact, that is the critical point of the whole domain. Two generals of Byzantium can only communicate cohesively without a 3rd party intermidiary only if:
- the state of things is known
- the rules of the game are known
- the knowing of the two above is constant through time.

So the substance of the protocol is just there, agnostic, like any other technology.

Hope I havent misunderstood your point 3 and I do agree with number 4.

Cheers

In my opinion both of you are correct. In Bitcoin network and its everyday functions the faith doesn't exists. It is a hard coded program that does specific stuffs only. The faith comes when it is connected to the fiat system. When you compare Bitcoin with the USD, this price discovery is based on faith from one system to the other. When the one systems faith fails, the other succeeded. So, based on the price charts faith is all over the place but based on the bitcoin network and its functionality faith is nowhere.

ilovethisforum wrote: In my opinion both of you are correct. In Bitcoin network and its everyday functions the faith doesn't exists. It is a hard coded program that does specific stuffs only. The faith comes when it is connected to the fiat system. When you compare Bitcoin with the USD, this price discovery is based on faith from one system to the other. When the one systems faith fails, the other succeeded. So, based on the price charts faith is all over the place but based on the bitcoin network and its functionality faith is nowhere.

Most of the users at this point in time use it just for investing. But i am sure this will change since we are still in the early phase. Second layer technology which will allow scaling has already been tested. After some years buying coffee with btc may be an usual thing. We will see people just scanning QR code given by the waiter tablet with their phones.

This is to inform you that I sold 30% of my LINK position to fiat at a price of $27.3.
So far I sold 50% of my total LINK assets. I managed to outperform both BTC and ETH with LINK. However, it worths saying that LINK represents the smaller part of my total crypto assets.

To illustrate how dangerous it is to jump in cryptos now, I am presenting how Isaac Newton, one of the most genius humans ever, went broke in the South Sea Stock Bubble.



I thought to highlight once again some of the key quotes of this thread.

1. Every passing day brings us closer to the top.

2. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.

3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. Let’s renew our meeting for the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith?

4. I do not bite the New Paradigm. The more it changes, the more it remains the same. This time is not different.

With all due respect,just stop  it man.its obvious you dont know how to trade cryptos.You think crypto should be traded like conventional markets and you are applying the same logic.
Just look what you did,you sold link at 27,eth at 1400.I mean what more can i say.
Not to mention you sold btc way too early.

He suggested Ethereum at 400, got out 1400, and yet people complain cause it wasn't the best trade.

Obviously it wasn't the best trade. Prove us you can do better next time.

He suggested btc at 6.5k, he got out at 9k, then he bought back at 12.5 and get out at 30k and 40k+

Show me another 2 who posted better trades anywhere. I am speaking seriously.

Spent a lot of days searching for good tips but couldn't find any. From tradingview to etoro, from bitcointalk etc.

All place a trade but noone is explaining what he is doing, what is his target, when is he is planning to get out from a trade.

sandy wrote: With all due respect,just stop  it man.its obvious you dont know how to trade cryptos.You think crypto should be traded like conventional markets and you are applying the same logic.
Just look what you did,you sold link at 27,eth at 1400.I mean what more can i say.
Not to mention you sold btc way too early.

I congratulate, and I am happy for everyone that made more money than me. Who cares who wins?
I am also happy with my performance. Mid 3 digits and counting. I feel really blessed.
And yes, cryptos like any other security are bought by the same humans. So until an Allien starts buying them, I will follow the tactics and the strategy that is confirmed over the centuries.

You can´t be happy that you sell early, it´s fake pose.
I bought at 600 and sell at 3000...than missed 20000 sell. Now i don´t sell under 100k

You can´t be happy that everybody get rich except you. We can see it today in mainstream discussion when nocoiners hate bitcoin. Envy is natural human behavior. You started convince us about bubble, tulips, southsea bubble because you want crash and buy lower, and have true. Like ivanontech
You are always upset in bull market that you invest too little.
You are always upset in bear market that you sell at top not so much as you wish.