Everyone here see a lot of value in your posts.
If there is any way to share your knowledge with this community, please, do it.
I know that there is a lot of work involved and you are sharing this for nothing.
For that reason, i asked you to some formulas (like investment fund), that allows you to worth your time and receive something back, and allows us to win money from your knowledge.
I am not counting here the time that you need for your family and friends, that obviously cannot be paid.
So, my suggestion is just, to think a way, please.
We are all people with money, and we know others that have money. You make with your investments more than 100%. Most of us have money doing nothing, or waiting for a good investment....., just think about it.
Long on BTC
- apoel81
- Pro
Post
Re: Long on BTC
Since the end of cycle according to your expectation is near, how do you plan to protect your profits?
Do you plan to sell for fiat/stablecoins before the end of cycle or you simply move your funds at an exchange and use stop loss?
Do you plan to sell for fiat/stablecoins before the end of cycle or you simply move your funds at an exchange and use stop loss?
- arbusers
- Administrator
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This is the million dollar question. More data is needed to decide what kind of top this one will be.
Re: Long on BTC
Please read my previous posts. We don't know if we approach a very important top or the end of the cycle.apoel81 wrote: Since the end of cycle according to your expectation is near,
This is the million dollar question. More data is needed to decide what kind of top this one will be.
- arbusers
- Administrator
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Re: Long on BTC
Today's metrics: April 11th 2021.
Let's visualise the 2 remaining scenarios according to my analysis. As I already said, the simplest Technical Analysis is the most powerful. We identified a line deeply rooted in time since the inception of BTC. This line is now a resistance. We also identified cycles in the price of BTC. Each cycle should be around 4 years long, and as investors we should be preferring lengthening cycles instead of shortening.
Scenario 1: A very important top coming in the next couple of months with blow off signals, followed by a severe correction (above 40%). A price consolidation, and then again a 2nd most important top that would signal the end of the cycle and the end of the bull market at the end of 2021. This scenario is the strongest currently.
Scenario 2: A small correction followed by price consolidation ending with a blow off top at the end of 2021.
Both scenarios are visualised at the following graph:
You should not take the arrows above to the bank. These are indicative. Further data is needed to identify tops and bottoms. The arrows above can help you draw a strategy to follow according to your risk tolerance and investing style.
Now, I know I am repetitive, but some things must be highlighted.
1. Every passing day brings us closer to the top (self evident).
2. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.
3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith, at the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir?
4. I do not bite the New Paradigm. The more it changes, the more it remains the same. This time is not different.
No matter what Pauls and Pomps are saying, I do not bite the entertainers and the majorettes who are paid for clicks and video views. I remain strongly committed to a way of thinking as taught from Thucydides, Cavafy, Graham, and the later philosophers of the markets like Grantham and Taleb. People with skin in the game, are entitled to have an opinion, and this opinion must be respected. Absolutely no respect for the opinion of people with no skin in the game.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Let's visualise the 2 remaining scenarios according to my analysis. As I already said, the simplest Technical Analysis is the most powerful. We identified a line deeply rooted in time since the inception of BTC. This line is now a resistance. We also identified cycles in the price of BTC. Each cycle should be around 4 years long, and as investors we should be preferring lengthening cycles instead of shortening.
Scenario 1: A very important top coming in the next couple of months with blow off signals, followed by a severe correction (above 40%). A price consolidation, and then again a 2nd most important top that would signal the end of the cycle and the end of the bull market at the end of 2021. This scenario is the strongest currently.
Scenario 2: A small correction followed by price consolidation ending with a blow off top at the end of 2021.
Both scenarios are visualised at the following graph:
You should not take the arrows above to the bank. These are indicative. Further data is needed to identify tops and bottoms. The arrows above can help you draw a strategy to follow according to your risk tolerance and investing style.
Now, I know I am repetitive, but some things must be highlighted.
1. Every passing day brings us closer to the top (self evident).
2. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.
3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith, at the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir?
4. I do not bite the New Paradigm. The more it changes, the more it remains the same. This time is not different.
No matter what Pauls and Pomps are saying, I do not bite the entertainers and the majorettes who are paid for clicks and video views. I remain strongly committed to a way of thinking as taught from Thucydides, Cavafy, Graham, and the later philosophers of the markets like Grantham and Taleb. People with skin in the game, are entitled to have an opinion, and this opinion must be respected. Absolutely no respect for the opinion of people with no skin in the game.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
Last edited by arbusers on Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- balls of steele
- Has experience
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Re: Long on BTC
This is blasphemy. What makes you think you are better than these 2?arbusers wrote: No matter what Pauls and Pomps are saying, I do not bite the entertainers and the majorettes who are paid for clicks and video views.
- arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
There is no bigger fraud in these times than the ''New Paradigm''.
An additional problem is that everyone understands the ''New Paradigm'' differently.
Headless chickens believe that cryptos will replace fiat.
Governments believe they can print fiat for ever.
Both so lethally dangerous.
An additional problem is that everyone understands the ''New Paradigm'' differently.
Headless chickens believe that cryptos will replace fiat.
Governments believe they can print fiat for ever.
Both so lethally dangerous.
- CharlieSheen99
- Pro
Post
And, for that, he puts all his money in BTC. I mean...ALL.
Re: Long on BTC
One guy i follow in twitter talking about being short to the actual financial system because of inflation and money printing.arbusers wrote: There is no bigger fraud in these times than the ''New Paradigm''.
An additional problem is that everyone understands the ''New Paradigm'' differently.
Headless chickens believe that cryptos will replace fiat.
Governments believe they can print fiat for ever.
Both so lethally dangerous.
And, for that, he puts all his money in BTC. I mean...ALL.
- arbusers
- Administrator
- Contact:
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Today's metrics: April the 7th.
Things are heating up again, and if they continue like this I will sell some more in the next days.
Re: Long on BTC
This is to inform you that my BTC holdings are again back to 50% as I sold the 5% I purchased back in the days. It was sold to fiat at 58000$.arbusers wrote: This is to inform you that I am slowly DCAing some BTC to add to my position. This should bring my BTC position to 55% (from 50%).
Today's metrics: April the 7th.
Things are heating up again, and if they continue like this I will sell some more in the next days.
Last edited by arbusers on Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
- TheStakeHunters
- Gaining experience
- down
- Gaining experience
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Re: Long on BTC
So, long story short, you will have a peak close to the end of 2021 with deeps between q2-q3.
Not to take away anyhting from your work, but if someone read anyone beeing in the game since 2014 onwards could tell you the exact same thing.
All in all, good luck!
Not to take away anyhting from your work, but if someone read anyone beeing in the game since 2014 onwards could tell you the exact same thing.
All in all, good luck!
- arbusers
- Administrator
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Re: Long on BTC
A massive thank you for the “good luck”.down wrote: So, long story short, you will have a peak close to the end of 2021 with deeps between q2-q3.
Not to take away anyhting from your work, but if someone read anyone beeing in the game since 2014 onwards could tell you the exact same thing.
All in all, good luck!
- arbusers
- Administrator
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I could come up with thousands ifs, it makes no sense analysing them.
Re: Long on BTC
It always a bad tactic reacting to news. Because if news are the trigger of your action, you will always be the last in the chain to take that action.TheStakeHunters wrote: How do you think what scenario could it be if Apple will buy Bitcoin ?
I could come up with thousands ifs, it makes no sense analysing them.
- Bobby80
- Gaining experience
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Re: Long on BTC
How are the metrics looking?
Will you be shorting bitcoin at this top we are approaching?
Will you be shorting bitcoin at this top we are approaching?
- arbusers
- Administrator
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I do not belong to these 4-5 people globally who can short BTC successfully, therefore I will not short it.
I am about to post a more detailed post during the weekend.
Re: Long on BTC
Today's metrics show April the 8th as a potential important top.Bobby80 wrote: How are the metrics looking?
Will you be shorting bitcoin at this top we are approaching?
I do not belong to these 4-5 people globally who can short BTC successfully, therefore I will not short it.
I am about to post a more detailed post during the weekend.
- cortomaltese
- Pro
Post
Re: Long on BTC
It's very possible indeed that we are approaching an important top but something tells me that maybe Bitcoin will not attract the main lights of this stage!