Arbusers

I'm just looking to beat Inflation with my cash savings so I'm happy if I do get 8-11% per year with the core of my Investments. Plus I have been buying in tax free wrappers (stocks and shares ISA) which will help. Money sitting in bank accounts is getting destroyed by high Inflation.

DPG wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:11 pm

I'm just looking to beat Inflation with my cash savings so I'm happy if I do get 8-11% per year with the core of my Investments. Plus I have been buying in tax free wrappers (stocks and shares ISA) which will help. Money sitting in bank accounts is getting destroyed by high Inflation.

I am not sure how will affect the actual environment to the stock markets.
We have a war in Europe.
We have US questioned every day by other countries.
We have China threat to US hegemony.
We have US dollar not as strong as some years ago.
We have a debt in the West like never in our history. Almost every west country has over 100% of debt.
The old Europe looks tired. And looks weak. Others with more energy, will take our place.

I don't know, what will happen. But, for the momment i will put my money out from Stock Markets.

DPG wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:03 pm

It's so much better investing in the Stock Market than it is to bet - You can't get limited or banned buying ETF's and shares etc.
It's really very easy aswell. DCA in to low cost globally well diversified Index funds and ETF's and let compounding work its magic. That makes the core of your portfolio and allocate a small percentage to individual shares/sectors if you have the skills and knowledge to do so.
The customer service is 100 times better with the investing platforms than bookies and betting exchanges too.

It is always better to have a source that generates income, and then you invest the surplus to the markets. The source that generates income can be a safety net if something goes bad, and it also helps you to keep in touch with the real economy. Take it as your personal crystal ball.

DPG wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:10 am

Yes. You can't go wrong with low cost Globally diversified ETF's and Index Funds. They average 8-11% per year. (As long as you are prepared to hold them for the long term). I will happily take that.

I believe you should rethink here. There is no guarantee this 8-11% will be there for ever. In fact, if it was that easy then alpha investors would not be able to make the difference and beat the market.

Let me comment a little bit further.
People with a significant wealth is measuring their performance in 2 different ways, depending on various factors.

1st. They compare their performance with the SP500 annual performance. This is a very difficult task to achieve. If we believe what people like Buffett, Greenblatt, Dalio, etc are saying, then we can assume that only 2% of investors are able to outperform the SP500. An ETF might be close to that performance but you should deduct the fees you have to pay. In addition, there are months and years the stock markets are negative. For example, 2022 had a negative 20% performance for SP500. Achieving a -18-19% performance is not something any serious investor would accept. They take for granted their exposure is limited during these times.

2nd. They say to themselves they need a standard growth percentage each year, no matter what happens to the market. In recent years, I know many investors/family offices etc, consider the 20% annual performance as the performance that all bonuses are paid and they can go for vacation to Mykonos and the Maldives like very year. Just have a look at the Forbes list and compare the majority of these billionaires year by year. You will notice that most of them are on average 20% richer than the previous year. In the event of a 30% performance, champagne baths take place and the bonuses are beyond generocity.

Some times a major catastrophe appears and the cards are reshuffled. That was the 1929 crisis, and in recent years the 2001 dot.com bubble and the 2008-9 Global Financial Crisis.

At the same time, I know there are people who outperform the SP500 by far each year, and they also achieve the 20-30% performance. These people also expect the reshuffle as an opportunity and not as a crisis. They stay in silence, they don't tweet and they don't youtube. Some times they drive Golfs and people around them don't understand who they really are and what they do for a living.

According to my research, only 1.75% traders beat sp500 growth.
Surprisingly, an even smaller percentage of people are profitable when it comes to betting.

Some people say to put wealth in different assets. Before you become really rich, you need to risk.

I personally see only one very safe investment that will outperform the SP500 in the next 2-3 years, and that topic is discussed a lot on this forum.

crypto data wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:43 am

I personally see only one very safe investment that will outperform the SP500 in the next 2-3 years, and that topic is discussed a lot on this forum.

I have valid reasons to believe that the current BTC cycle will be the last to beat the SP500. After the peak, we will all have to make serious decisions.

A monthly close yesterday. To me, it looks ready for a strong move up. A simple chart. Maybe 4600 would be a 1st stop.
Of course, I do not pay attention at the narratives, I focus on my charts.


Of course, do your own Due Diligence.

Well, you know what to do when Jim says...

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 10, 2023 7:34 am

Well, you know what to do when Jim says...


Cramer.png

Have you personally bought up?

Lumberjack wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 10, 2023 11:40 am

Have you personally bought up?

Jim Cramer should be used as a contrarian indicator. Whatever he does, you should do the exact opposite to guarantee profit. I have a large list of stocks but Apple is not one of them

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 04, 2022 9:31 pm

Very quickly, and not a financial advise.

It seems to me that someone with an horizon of at least some months, is safe to buy growth US stocks. There are discounts in the market right now, and many stocks are very much undervalued. I m a clear buyer these last weeks. This is the reason why I m silent in the forum lately and I avoid commenting to an extend. My analysis and the transactions are sucking my time.

I do not buy the narratives. Narratives are there to full you. Latest narrative, inflation, hedges, the FED etc. These are retro already. I m simply following my TA as implemented in individual stocks. You should not use the SP500 or any other US market as a reference to buy stocks outside the US. The US markets are in a different pace compared to Europe and other parts of the world.

''Bobby Axelrod bought the dip''.

For years I have insisted on the forum emphasizing the value of circles when it comes to investing. But cycles should not be limited only to financial ones, because there are other types of cycles that interact and in fact create an invincible reality that is reflected on stock market charts.

I have said before that I expect a blow off top which should be revealed in 2024 or 2025. In these years I detect the end of 3 relevant historical cycles. More specifically:
- The end of a 30-year or so cycle of the post-Cold War and US-centric order.
- The end of an 80-year cycle of the post-WWII reality of the Western-centric order.
- The end of a 200-year cycle characterised by Anglo-Saxon primacy.

But counting years, decades, or whatever, is not nearly as accurate as counting generations. The number of generations is the surest way of timing events. Here is an example that may surprise you: 6 generations after Queen Victoria who was also Empress of India, an Indian became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

When the succession of 4 generations is completed from the end of the WWII, the historical post-war cycle of approximately 80 years will be closed.

All of this marks the end of a major deviation which will be corrected because historical reality dictates so. A new reality will have to emerge, which will not be Western-centric, or American-centric. It will be less democratic, less based in the Greco-Roman (add Judeo too if you like) way of life as we know it. The circles close both in terms of their material reality (economy, demography, geography, etc.) and in terms of their theoretical, intellectual value and ideological realities.

I understand that I m looking too far now, and one should take what I say in this post in a macroscopic view. The blow off top is first.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 05, 2023 8:28 am

I expect a blow off top which should be revealed in 2024 or 2025.

And what would be the potential target of this top?
Because of you and because of this forum I started studying technical analysis. Now I see hanging man candles in both AAPL and MSFT. This is very bearish if not the most bearish candles according to the theory. How can you think of a top when the 2 most influential companies are declining?

Kreon wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 06, 2023 7:36 am

And what would be the potential target of this top?
Because of you and because of this forum I started studying technical analysis. Now I see hanging man candles in both AAPL and MSFT. This is very bearish if not the most bearish candles according to the theory. How can you think of a top when the 2 most influential companies are declining?

First of all I am happy that you study T.A.
Secondly, there is no hanging man in the MSFT graph, but there is one indeed in AAPL. This is on the daily time frame which means that its importance is not that big. Maybe it is bearish for the days/weeks to come, but you need to see a hanging man on the weekly to start thinking bearish.
As for the targets, very briefly, with the data that I have right now it seems to me the final target would be something between 6200 and 6400. I dont want to upload a graph on that as my analysis is very much unique. However, I must say that SP500 has its own unique ways to trick everyone and bypass any kind of T.A, and EWT.