Arbusers

I thank you very much for the analysis you share uncharitably in this forum. I have been benefited to an unprecedented extend in my life. I feel guilty for not paying back a single penny for what I received.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 06, 2023 7:36 pm

seems to me the final target would be something between 6200 and 6400.

I am also reading closely the BTC thread and I noticed the end of the current cycle at the end of 2025. I assume your 6200-6400 target will coincide with the end of the BTC cycle, or am I missing something here?

Again, thank you very much.

Kreon wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 07, 2023 10:00 am

I am also reading closely the BTC thread and I noticed the end of the current cycle at the end of 2025. I assume your 6200-6400 target will coincide with the end of the BTC cycle, or am I missing something here?

Thank you for the good words, much appreciated!
At this point in time I am not able to work on the X axis, that is time, for the SP500, simply because the data that I have do not give me a credible clue. As I said in the past, EWT is not applicable to the SP500 in the same manner that is applicable to other charts (BTC for example).
It seems to me that SP500 and BTC will be de-correlated violently at a point in time. It seems to me that SP500 will have a blow off top long before the end of the BTC cycle. It doesn't look like 2023, but most probably it will be 2024. Of course, as you can imagine the US elections will play a role.
To de-correlate BTC from SP500 you need an event that will make the economy crumble, taking down the SP500 and at the same time an event that will take BTC up. The only event I can't think of right now, is a big liquidity problem with banks, or a general debt issue (state or corporate). Banks will not be left alone in a pre-election year, and the only way to support them is by printing fresh fiat money. Fresh fiat money will push investors to inflation-resistant items such us BTC, and there you have it. The SP500 goes down while BTC goes up.
Of course, we are talking about vivid imagination here. Maybe the SP500 cycle is extended to 2025, who knows.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 06, 2023 7:36 pm

As for the targets, very briefly, with the data that I have right now it seems to me the final target would be something between 6200 and 6400.

Of course, as always, this is not a financial advise but I wanted to visualise my way of thinking in regards to the SP500 targets that I previously set.

To me, there is a clear and well-defined descending flag as you can see in the uploaded image. Descending flags within bullish markets are trend continuation signals. The dominant trend will be continued, and this trend is clearly bullish. According to classic T.A, the final target will be determined by the length of the pole of the flag, added to the price the exact time when the flag is broken. By implementing this simple rule, we see a target of 6400.
Have a look:


But...
The SP500 has a very bad record of obeying to classic T.A and EWT. That said, my best case scenario as we speak, (and I always keep the right to change my opinion when the charts dictate so) is a final push towards 6200-6400. Like always, I am closing my eyes and ears to CNBC, Twitter and Youtubers (not to mention TikTokers and the Veles boys), and I choose the scenario that comes from my charts.

Again, not a financial advise. I am telling you what I do with my own money, and not what you should do with yours.

We see tipical SP500 move dawn in pre-election year, at this time of the year

crypto data wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:04 pm

We see tipical SP500 move dawn in pre-election year, at this time of the year

I am always very skeptic with the dominant narratives.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 18, 2023 4:24 pm

crypto data wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:04 pm

We see tipical SP500 move dawn in pre-election year, at this time of the year

I am always very skeptic with the dominant narratives.

Reasons why I mention this

1) You wrote this and mention pre-election years :
The reason why I say this is because 2023 is a US pre-election year. These pre-election years are the best performers of the 4 year Presidency and that means the SP500 at the end of the year will be significantly .

2) Second part of the pre-election years are normaly not so bullish like the first half of the year

So my conclusion is that the SP500 market is totaly normal for pre-election year like I wrote on Aug 06, 2023 that I expect some dawn trend in the coming 3 months.

My only conclusion is that I dont see any panic becouse of this SP500 dump that is hapenning this week

Several times in the past, I mentioned the bullishness of the SP500 the way I understand it. In an environment full of sirens (CNBC, Twitter, Youtube, etc) screaming for forthcoming recessions, collapses, etc, I openly spoke about my positions in growth stocks. It pays.

I also spoke about the potential targets of the SP500 based on the patterns that I see in the charts. As I always say, I need confluence before making a decision. So today I will present another factor that gives me hints on where the market is going. A factor that I use as a parameter of my confluence. Again, I am talking about my loyal RSI, an indicator that has the ability to strip price action from every pretentious move.

The following graph is on the monthly time frame. As I said several times, the bigger the time frame, the better picture it presents. In this graph we see a monstrous negative divergence that goes on for 5 consecutive years. This type of divergences do not end up well. They end with generational events. Any rational thinker would immediately think that I am playing with fire by staying in the market. The answer is yes, I am playing with fire. But at the same time the risk/reward ratio is favouring me right now.


I am very sneaky, and I practice classic T.A in the index of RSI instead of the price itself. Patterns are repeated decorative designs, and because they are repeated they make me think that the RSI is magnetised by the red descending line. Somewhere in the near future they will meet. Today, RSI stands at 58 and the descending trend line stands at 72.4. This price difference of 14.4 in the monthly RSI, represents a price difference of approximately 1100 for the SP500.

But, reality shows that time is needed for the 2 in order to meet somewhere in 2024 or 2025. With today's data and I stress the words today's data we are talking about a price target of 5600 for the SP500. But, we can never be sure how this pattern evolves and what the future will bring. Usually, these patterns are not straight lines, they are zig zags with an excellent talent to fool everyone, and create margins. I will keep observing the behaviour of the RSI price and SP500 price.

Of course, this is not an investment advise and you should do your own Due Diligence.

I would like to update you guys in regards to the recent SP500 action because I see some worrying signals. I will firstly describe what the charts are telling me, and then I will explain my thinking process and how I will manage things.

Again, this is not a financial advise, I am not telling you what to do with your money, I am simply describing what I do with the funds that I manage. Do your own Due Diligence.

Have a look at the following graph:


What caught my eye again is the monstrous negative RSI divergence on the weekly timeframe. It started in 2018 and it is re-confirmed several times until today. The bigger the time frame, the stronger signal. These things do not end up well and as I mentioned several times a catastrophe is in the cards. However, this catastrophe should happen after a final text book blow-off top. On the other hand, maybe there are too many people now expecting that blow-off top that makes the charts to re-adjust accordingly against them. We do not want to be trapped in this.

The ascending channel was broken last Friday, predominantly because of the poor Tesla results. If more companies of what they call ''The magnificent 7'' follow this example, I don't see how things could return back in order. This week more companies will announce their earnings, I believe META being the most obvious to watch will trigger the next move up or down.

Something which is not shown in the graph, is that low-cap companies are slaughtered and no technical signals seem to operate as safety nets. Usually, it is the periphery that starts the collapse, and then the landslide moves towards the Ciscos and the Blue Chips. We have seen that in the past, and it is because no fresh funds are entering the market.

On the other hand, the Stochastic RSI seems ready for an outstanding move upwards. If we combine this with the seasonality of the Q4, together with the fact that pre-election years are generally very generous to the investors, I would normally expect a good move up starting these days until the end of the year. This move up will determine my over-all position in the market. If it is strong, I will bullishly stay in the market. If it is weak and hectic, I will re-adjust my strategy and overall position.

Again, not a financial advise. Do your own DD.

I'll repeat myself. Currently, we are in a normal pre-election year. There isn't much room left for S&P 500 growth in a pre-election year. The fact is that S&P 500 sees its most significant growth in the first half of the pre-election year, and that's precisely what happened this year. Now, we've had a correction, which is typical for this pre-election year period (August to October). It's likely that the mini bull market from a year ago will continue for some time, but I'm not claiming we'll see the S&P 500 at a new high. As long as the Treasury yield curve remains inverted, there's a higher chance that the S&P 500 will continue to grow rather than decline. Even if there is a S&P 500 decline during a period when the Treasury yield curve is inverted, we probably won't see significant bloodshed. Many analysts have been warning that a recession is coming (without claiming that we are in one yet).


I still see most probable recession to hit in H2 2024 (this is very dinamic).

Central Banks QT, high interest rates are kilink opening jobs and the jobs are those who tells if recession will come or not. They can kill sticky inflation only if unemploment rate will go up, and unemploment up mens recession. And bond markets tend to bottom before Sp500.

And like I observe on social media, most belive that recession was in 2022 and that we will not see recession in next 2 years.

I'd like to offer my own rather simple view - not investment advice, needless to say, but I think that it might be interesting for some of the members here to look at things from a more fundamental perspective.

Over the last decade, we've seen a massive bull run driven my falling interest rates. Low interest rates increase stock prices in two ways: 1) make it easier for firms to borrow money and expand, and 2) make equity returns more attractive relative to bond returns.

When bond returns were around 0%, there was nowhere else to park your money except for stocks / real estate, and therefore these grew in price very quickly. The S&P PE ratio was such that your investments were returning around 4% a year, relative to 0% from bonds -> more money moved into stocks.

Now with the 10Y treasury rate at over 5%, the S&P index seems much less attractive. With a PE ratio of around 20, it also represents about a 5% return on your capital (meaning that the companies return about 5%. The prices might change significantly - but this is what your money is "doing" inside of the companies). So that's far less attractive, and there's much worry that returns will drop lower due to constricting money supply and reduced economic activity.
Therefore - money is generally exiting stocks and flowing into bonds.

My view - is that it's best to invest in bonds at the moment (what lengths of bonds depends a lot on your economic forecast, but I think that longer bonds are finally starting to become safe), and when interest rates start to drop - your investments will gain value immediately (a 10Y bond returning 5% gains value immediately if interest rates drop to 4%), and you can sell them and jump on stocks, which which will in turn start to gain value.

I could be wrong, of course, but it seems to me like this is what the economic cycle is predicting.
I would love to have more input from someone more knowledgeable in macroeconomics: what's the likelihood of a recession? How will it affect stock earnings (and therefore prices)? How high can interest rates go, in the sense that the US government itself must pay interest on its debt? Can it sustain 6%? 7%? What is the likelihood of a larger scale conflict growing from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East? How will such a conflict affect bond yields and stock prices?

It is time to provide a quick update on the grand picture of the SP500. Of course, this is not a financial advise and I am not telling you what to do with your money (TikTok and Youtube guys are way better). I am simply telling you what I do with the money under my management.

Technically, the market looks ready to explode upwards. I m not registering yet under the quick melt up scenario and I will explain the reasons. The majority of investors spanning from fund managers to small investors are still sitting on the side without enjoying the bull market. They bought expensively the recession scenario and they simply observe the markets with no appetite for risks. Recession didn't come in 21, 22, and 23, but somehow they do believe it will come in 2024. There will be a year they will be right in the end. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.

NASDAQ, DJIA and other indexes already did new ATH but we speak about SP500 here. In the short run, I believe we will have a new ATH for SP500 before the year is out, or by the very beginning of 2024. The bears, CNBC, (and the TikTokers) will come with a new scenario in order to scaremonger naive investors. They will say ''we see a double top'', which is a very bearish technical signal.

But...
Once again they will be wrong.

In my view, the most possible scenario is a pullback after the double top, followed by a quick move up to strip all bears from their silly rhetorics. The target of 6200 remains in the cards as explained in previous posts.


The graph above is on the monthly time frame. I use the monthly RSI to determine a potential top. As I m sure you are familiar with by now... biggest time frames come with more credible signals. When the monthly RSI meets the descending trend line that comes from 2018, we will have a completed monstrous divergence that will signal the end of this bull market that started in 2008.
You can understand what comes next for the SP500.

To prevent the wrong questions, I m stressing that markets do not have to be correlated all the time.

Again, not a financial advise. You can get your financial advise from various self proclaimed master traders, presidents etc, easily found in Youtube, TikTok and Twitter.

BTW, did you know that a notorious Twitter account that repeatedly failed to identify a correct trend and keeps shorting BTC since 15K, gained some 100.000 new followers these last months? At the same time our Twitter account lost 10 followers, which represents 1.5% of our followers. People never change.

I would like to share with you guys some thoughts that I have in my mind for some months now.

Back in 2000 with the Greek elections ante portas, the socialist government of PASOK decided to provide support in the Greek stock market. The nation was in a frenzy for stocks and people were selling the barn to buy stocks they never heard before. Even Bill Clinton praised the Greek stock market at his visit in Athens.

That was a very easy money to be made, because sellers were selling through out the day, and just 15 minutes before the closing bell, banks and funds controlled by the state were buying until the day closes green. Can you imagine the ridiculously easy money some people made?

So today, I recognise a pattern that shows the game being rigged. This time it is in the US markets.
It seems to me the whole interest rates and inflation cycles are both doctored to coincide with a great performance for 2024, just months before the elections.

You might say the US is not a banana republic to act like this, but I am asking you to think again. Maybe that is why inflation, interest rates, and over all business cycle became that easy to predict.

Now you all know what followed the Greek naughtiness of the 00s. As I said in various posts before, the Greek stock market is one cycle ahead of all other stock markets globally and it provides a cheat code, a blue print for what comes next.

I might come back again on that with a detailed article.

And of course, not a financial advise, do your own DD.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:58 pm

It seems to me whole interest rates and inflation cycles are both doctored to coincide with a great performance for 2024, just months before the elections.

What do you mean by that? You think US government rigged inflation and interest rates to improve stock market performance?

mrJustice wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:15 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:58 pm

It seems to me whole interest rates and inflation cycles are both doctored to coincide with a great performance for 2024, just months before the elections.

What do you mean by that? You think US government rigged inflation and interest rates to improve stock market performance?

just a bit.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 20, 2023 1:58 pm

So today, I recognise a pattern that shows the game being rigged. This time it is in the US markets.
It seems to me the whole interest rates and inflation cycles are both doctored to coincide with a great performance for 2024, just months before the elections.

You might say the US is not a banana republic to act like this, but I am asking you to think again. Maybe that is why inflation, interest rates, and over all business cycle became that easy to predict.

Now you all know what followed the Greek naughtiness of the 00s. As I said in various posts before, the Greek stock market is one cycle ahead of all other stock markets globally and it provides a cheat code, a blue print for what comes next.

These are not serious arguments.