Arbusers

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 17, 2023 11:38 am

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 06, 2023 7:36 pm

As for the targets, very briefly, with the data that I have right now it seems to me the final target would be something between 6200 and 6400.

Of course, as always, this is not a financial advise but I wanted to visualise my way of thinking in regards to the SP500 targets that I previously set.

To me, there is a clear and well-defined descending flag as you can see in the uploaded image. Descending flags within bullish markets are trend continuation signals. The dominant trend will be continued, and this trend is clearly bullish. According to classic T.A, the final target will be determined by the length of the pole of the flag, added to the price the exact time when the flag is broken. By implementing this simple rule, we see a target of 6400.
Have a look:

SP.png (369.2 KiB) Viewed 1138 times

But...
The SP500 has a very bad record of obeying to classic T.A and EWT. That said, my best case scenario as we speak, (and I always keep the right to change my opinion when the charts dictate so) is a final push towards 6200-6400. Like always, I am closing my eyes and ears to CNBC, Twitter and Youtubers (not to mention TikTokers and the Veles boys), and I choose the scenario that comes from my charts.

Again, not a financial advise. I am telling you what I do with my own money, and not what you should do with yours.

This is the most educative post I have ever seen online and again I thank you for that.
Is the target of 6200-6400 still valid for SP500 according to your calculations?
I study T.A as hard as I can and there is a question in my mind that I have no idea how to answer. Your chart with the 2 poles is analog. But I see the majority of analysts using logarithmic charts. If we use a logarithmic chart in your analysis, the final target is much higher than 6200-6400. Which one is correct then? Analog or logarithmic?
Again I thank you for the knowledge you share with the community.

Kreon wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 25, 2023 12:00 pm

This is the most educative post I have ever seen online and again I thank you for that.
Is the target of 6200-6400 still valid for SP500 according to your calculations?
I study T.A as hard as I can and there is a question in my mind that I have no idea how to answer. Your chart with the 2 poles is analog. But I see the majority of analysts using logarithmic charts. If we use a logarithmic chart in your analysis, the final target is much higher than 6200-6400. Which one is correct then? Analog or logarithmic?
Again I thank you for the knowledge you share with the community.

Firstly, thank you for the good words. It is always encouraging that what I write is not in vain.

Yes, the target of 6200-6400 is still intact as there is no data in the graphs that would invalidate it. According to theory, the length of the pole designates the minimum potential target. That means it could very well go above the above mentioned target. Notice that what I say is not a financial advise, and I always keep the right to change my opinion when the charts dictate so.

As for the analog or logarithmic chart, in my view this is terra incognita, and I will explain why. The logarithm chart is used predominantly for markets with extremes and long tales in the Y axis. BTC fits very well in this description. But they are also used for markets that expand a lot to the X axis too. BTC does not fit in this. That said, I can't give a credible answer to your question.

In addition, in the recent years we noticed that extremes became the new normal in various markets. Do you remember the negative oil price in 2020s? This shows that we are passing a transitional period after which T.A will have to be redefined (as always). This transitional period will expand to the 2030s when the majority of the economy will be dominated by AI, Robotics and who knows what else.

I would like to speak some more about the current state of play, and where we stand in the grand scheme of the cycle. The targets I gave in the previous months remain intact and you do understand that I am going against the general narratives for years now. In my view the market is favourable and we are in the middle of a bull market that soon will resemble to a melt up. If the SP500 is heading for a melt up, we can then draw relevant conclusions for other assets, like BTC or real estate.

To understand our current position and present my thesis, I will use a very important metric. It is a metric that every serious investor (not those that you see in TikTok and Youtube) will take into account. It is the USA Manufacturing Prices. I use the US version because it is the biggest and the leading economy of our planet.

It is a metric that helps me understand the cycles of the markets. Combined with classic T.A we can understand when we are in the beginning of the cycle or when we are closing to an end. When this index is topping, we are nearing at the end of a bull market, and when it bottoms, we are nearing the end of a bear market. To determine thoroughly when it tops or bottoms, I am adding in my calculations my loyal classic RSI and the Logarithmic MACD, and I blend them altogether in the same way I would blend them to determine if a stock has value or not. See the following graph:


What do we see here:
1. We see the RSI at a modest level, definitely, not overbought or oversold, but for sure under the level of 50, coming from an oversold position.
2. We see the Logarithmic MACD ready to explode. Any time it was in a similar position, the market moved North violently. But of course, this is not a guarantee. It simply shows favourable conditions.
3. We are in an election year for the USA. No party wants to go to elections with unfavourable conditions.

Blending all these, I believe we are ready for a melt up followed by a blow off top. You already know my opinion of what comes next, but it is too early to talk about this ''next''.

There is a negative divergence developing for RSI in the daily time frame developing as we speak. This indicates that we will see some pressure downwards. How far? No one knows. At the same time the weekly time frame remains healthy with no negative divergences, but if price action continues like this, we will eventually see these divergences in the weekly too.

Time for panic? Definitely no. We can stomach some pressure. The overall perspectives of the market remain bullish.


And of course, do your own Due Diligence.

On top of the negative divergence in the RSI, I would like to add some more facts that charts are showing to me. They are adding up to the short term bear view in the market. But make no mistake, in the grand scheme of things we are in a very aggressive bull market with a final destination at around 6200 for the SPX as I repeatedly said. With these posts I m trying to figure out what the next move is going to be in the next days/weeks.

Last week's weekly candlestick created a harami. In Japanese, harami means ''baby''. So the candlestick shows a very long body, with a small vertical body in it, a baby. In the west we named this type of candlestick as ''Hanging Man'' and it is an indication that we are before a trend reversal. Have a look at the following graph, and then I continue with my thinking process.


In all analysis I make, I am looking for confluence. A lonely Hanging man is not enough to support any analysis. Thus, the idea of a trend reversal is supported by the classic RSI, and the Stochastic RSI. Both of them are in overbought condition.

Let's suppose that I am correct. The next question is, how deep will price go? Given the fact that we are in a bull market, this is not going to be something jaw dropping. I identified 2 support levels, 4800 and 4690. The nature of SPX waves in this cycle, is showing that overlapping is not preferable. Thus, I believe that 4800 is the best choice for the time being. It needs some time, some days or weeks until we see the move unfolding, and it coincides with March who is by tradition a weak month. Then we can resume upwards. This target of 4800 in the SPX is giving me a hint that BTC might do something similar due to its correlation with SPX.

Again, do your own Due Dilligence.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:20 am

Where to buy S&P and other stocks, what's best place/broker/whatever?

Thank You in advance!

Mystic wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:23 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:20 am

Where to buy S&P and other stocks, what's best place/broker/whatever?

Thank You in advance!

Everything different from Interactive Brokers is risky

probettor91 wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 21, 2024 7:48 am

Mystic wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:23 pm

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:20 am

Where to buy S&P and other stocks, what's best place/broker/whatever?

Thank You in advance!

Everything different from Interactive Brokers is risky

To my knowledge, InteractiveBrokers is the platform with the smallest fees. In addition, I feel safer with IB compared to other platforms that have been under scrutiny in the past (i.e RobinHood).

Would you buy China now?

I would like to speak some more about the natures of various cycles and how I imagine the end of the current cycle.
There is a myth in the marketplace called correlation. I see this myth being wide spread in the crypto sphere and therefore many investors believe that cryptos and the SP500 will end their cycles together. That is a mistake. In general, these cycles walk side by side, but in the end they take distinct and different paths. This is where there is no correlation.

According to my investing interests there are 3 cycles that receive my attention:
1. Bitcoin. If you notice cycle #3 of Bitcoin, it ended technically long before the SP500. Regardless of what the enthusiasts might say, Bitcoin is still a high speculative asset and because of this will end its cycle long before the SP500. In addition, long term observation clearly shows a 4 year cycle for Bitcoin and an average of 7 year cycle for the stocks. There will be a time these cycles will be aligned.
2. SP500. I m old enough to remember the 2001 top. In that top the B-class stocks were massacred long before the end of the cycle, and only the fine class stocks were left to carry the index. In the end, the Ciscos were too beaten. This is what we see today. The magnificent 7 (or 6) are running and carrying the index, while the other 454 stocks are laggards far behind.
3. The real estate cycle. This cycle typically reacts at the end, as the investors are more traditional here and the sphere is usually benefitted by the profits of the other cycles.

To put things in an order, I believe the BTC will bust first, followed by the SP500 and in the end the real estate will follow.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 4:49 pm

I would like to speak some more about the natures of various cycles and how I imagine the end of the current cycle.
There is a myth in the marketplace called correlation. I see this myth being wide spread in the crypto sphere and therefore many investors believe that cryptos and the SP500 will end their cycles together. That is a mistake. In general, these cycles walk side by side, but in the end they take distinct and different paths. This is where there is no correlation.

According to my investing interests there are 3 cycles that receive my attention:
1. Bitcoin. If you notice cycle #3 of Bitcoin, it ended technically long before the SP500. Regardless of what the enthusiasts might say, Bitcoin is still a high speculative asset and because of this will end its cycle long before the SP500. In addition, long term observation clearly shows a 4 year cycle for Bitcoin and an average of 7 year cycle for the stocks. There will be a time these cycles will be aligned.
2. SP500. I m old enough to remember the 2001 top. In that top the B-class stocks were massacred long before the end of the cycle, and only the fine class stocks were left to carry the index. In the end, the Ciscos were too beaten. This is what we see today. The magnificent 7 (or 6) are running and carrying the index, while the other 454 stocks are laggards far behind.
3. The real estate cycle. This cycle typically reacts at the end, as the investors are more traditional here and the sphere is usually benefitted by the profits of the other cycles.

To put things in an order, I believe the BTC will bust first, followed by the SP500 and in the end the real estate will follow.

Beautiful answer.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 4:49 pm

I would like to speak some more about the natures of various cycles and how I imagine the end of the current cycle.
There is a myth in the marketplace called correlation. I see this myth being wide spread in the crypto sphere and therefore many investors believe that cryptos and the SP500 will end their cycles together. That is a mistake. In general, these cycles walk side by side, but in the end they take distinct and different paths. This is where there is no correlation.

According to my investing interests there are 3 cycles that receive my attention:
1. Bitcoin. If you notice cycle #3 of Bitcoin, it ended technically long before the SP500. Regardless of what the enthusiasts might say, Bitcoin is still a high speculative asset and because of this will end its cycle long before the SP500. In addition, long term observation clearly shows a 4 year cycle for Bitcoin and an average of 7 year cycle for the stocks. There will be a time these cycles will be aligned.
2. SP500. I m old enough to remember the 2001 top. In that top the B-class stocks were massacred long before the end of the cycle, and only the fine class stocks were left to carry the index. In the end, the Ciscos were too beaten. This is what we see today. The magnificent 7 (or 6) are running and carrying the index, while the other 454 stocks are laggards far behind.
3. The real estate cycle. This cycle typically reacts at the end, as the investors are more traditional here and the sphere is usually benefitted by the profits of the other cycles.

To put things in an order, I believe the BTC will bust first, followed by the SP500 and in the end the real estate will follow.

The same applies to the crypto market itself, doesn't it? Altcoins may continue to grow along with the Bitcoin trend, but they often soar even after Bitcoin stops, and they return to potential lowest rates much faster than BTC
Same asset class, but still different attitude, right?

Philip Korsy wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:02 pm

The same applies to the crypto market itself, doesn't it? Altcoins may continue to grow along with the Bitcoin trend, but they often soar even after Bitcoin stops, and they return to potential lowest rates much faster than BTC
Same asset class, but still different attitude, right?

As the market gets sneakier by the day, I believe some well established ideas and opinions on cryptos will be shaken out in this cycle. In any case, my exposure to Altcoins (or should I call them sh.tcoins) is 0 for this cycle.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:25 pm

Philip Korsy wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:02 pm

The same applies to the crypto market itself, doesn't it? Altcoins may continue to grow along with the Bitcoin trend, but they often soar even after Bitcoin stops, and they return to potential lowest rates much faster than BTC
Same asset class, but still different attitude, right?

As the market gets sneakier by the day, I believe some well established ideas and opinions on cryptos will be shaken out in this cycle. In any case, my exposure to Altcoins (or should I call them sh.tcoins) is 0 for this cycle.

It's interesting to hear that. Looking at your analysis, I see reasons both for and against your zero allocations in shitcoins. I'm considering that you've placed projects on your watchlist which had potential and may not be considered shitcoins in the future. In the current market, I see tokens with real, not projected value. Additionally, I've received advocacy for them from real professionals with deep skin in the game.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 1:25 pm

Philip Korsy wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:02 pm

The same applies to the crypto market itself, doesn't it? Altcoins may continue to grow along with the Bitcoin trend, but they often soar even after Bitcoin stops, and they return to potential lowest rates much faster than BTC
Same asset class, but still different attitude, right?

As the market gets sneakier by the day, I believe some well established ideas and opinions on cryptos will be shaken out in this cycle. In any case, my exposure to Altcoins (or should I call them sh.tcoins) is 0 for this cycle.

What fundaments do you base yourself to evaluate ethereum,solana,XRP,polkadot as sh** coins?