Arbusers

T.A if implemented correctly, embodies all the knowledge of the market which is priced in.
Now I will dubiously make a hypothesis that would explain what we see in the markets. The dominant narrative of these weeks is that the FED will dictate the market what to do as a result of it's interest rates policy.
On Monday November the 8th 2022 we have the midterm US elections where common sense expects Democrats to be crashed at unseen levels. The FED, as always, will be told by the US government what to do and what not to do. The FED cooperated with perfect harmony with Republicans under Trump, and continues to do so with Democrats under Biden. Let's not forget who decides the head of the FED and who pays for his salary.
My hypothesis is the US government will dictate the FED not to be extremely hawkish these months, so the average US voter will not see his 401's being crashed and will not be requested to pay a lot more to the bank for his loans. The FED will be freed to act freely after the elections and will be again dictated on what to do 6-9 months before the 2024 presidential elections.
In this scenario, we would expect SP500 and in general the US stocks to go up until mid to late October, and then being free to act as they wish.

Not a financial advice, do your own DD, this is simply a dubious hypothesis.

@Arbusers

Do you have any "updates" or generel view of the market as a whole compared to where we are standing right now? Not just talking S&P500

A lot of things is going on lately, inflation, the war, great britian ect. and im just curious with a financial perspective about the coming time.

I can't speak about the markets as a whole. In my view, US are in different phase than European markets, not to speak about emerging.

Since the thread is about SP500, let's speak about SP500. I recently increased my positions in growth stock and it pays. My horizon is mid to long term and I select my stocks according to my own invented metrics and T.A analysis as you probably know. Out of all stocks, I m particularly overweight to 2 growth stocks specialising in future life and life style to put it very generally.

I changed my mind about the scenario of the markets as presented in my previous post in this thread. I recently watched Biden's interview on CNN where he was speaking about the war in Ukraine and of course the economy. In regards to the economy he said that ''we expect a quick recession, it might not even be a recession'' or something similar. Go see that interview.

So let's get into his head if we can. He will sacrifice the mid elections, no question about it, the Democrats will be slaughtered and expects a quick recession afterwards. What comes after a quick recession? I can only assume with good chances of being right, it will be a Bull market. Politicians want a Bull market right before the elections to keep the electorate happy, and especially the pensioners that vote like a block, counting the candies in the bag each day. The 401 portfolios must not be damaged before the elections.

Look at the following scheme: FED raising rates>Quick recession and FED pivoting, not at this particular series>Bull market>elections. This is the dream and the plan of the system.

As you see, the ''Never fight the FED'' fairy tale is based on inflation and CPI. I would like to focus on the CPI. This is a rolling indicator counting 12 months. One month goes and replaced by the current. Have a look at the CPI index 1 year ago? What do you see? We will soon see the CPI falling down to 7.5-7-6.5-6, this will happen in the next 2-4 months. With the FED keep raising interest rates above the CPI? Of course not. They will stop and then pivot. This will happen in the next 2-4 months and then all narratives about inflation and the FED will be dust. The new Bull market will begin and we are heading for the elections.

The question is, how early investment actors get to the same conclusion? When they do, you have your new Bull market. That is why I keep a significant position in these growth stocks.

In case you wonder what is happening today with the stock market...I told you so.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:29 am

We will soon see the CPI falling down to 7.5-7-6.5-6, this will happen in the next 2-4 months.

Congrats. Any analysis here?

Very very generally, without getting into details.
The general public swallowed very easily the FED>Inflation>Recession>Risk-off narrative. To me, 2023 offers a lot of space for a nice top, even a blow off top, that will surprise the clueless investors. This in confirmed by the broken resistance line that could be now used as support if needed. See in the chart below. The same applies for the Dow.

However, there is a monstrous RSI negative divergence that shouts trouble, and I am confident this trouble is ahead of us and we will encounter it. But until then, let's take from the market what it lavishly offers.


This chart is for the SP500. Over the years, I learned to pay little attention to the indexes, and focus on specific stocks. This is a step forward for every knowledgeable investor. Because these indexes are simply for chit chat, and counting funds performances and nothin more than that. Individual stocks are the assets that runs higher, even if the index goes down. And of course, we dont have to marry a stock or any other asset.

Do your own Due Diligence. Not a financial advise.

My two cents.
In the first half of 2022, we had a negative GDP (a consequence of the corona lockdown) and a bear market.
Usually when we had two negative quarters the SP500 was near the bottom.
In the third quarter, there was confirmation that the economy is improving again.
So now we have the expected bull market again for some time, which will probably last for some time.
I personally bet that the high interest rate will be here for some time, and that the high interest rate will have consequences for the economy.
The FED is currently claiming that it would rather raise interest rates too high and stay on high levels and push the economy into recession than inflation to return.

I m informed the US changed the way it counts the CPI. Let’s prepare for a new “narrative” or the conservation of a collapsing one.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:42 am

I m informed the US changed the way it counts the CPI. Let’s prepare for a new “narrative” or the conservation of a collapsing one.

FED looks at CORE inflation, and i didnt got info that CORE inflation calculation changed

It's so much better investing in the Stock Market than it is to bet - You can't get limited or banned buying ETF's and shares etc.
It's really very easy aswell. DCA in to low cost globally well diversified Index funds and ETF's and let compounding work its magic. That makes the core of your portfolio and allocate a small percentage to individual shares/sectors if you have the skills and knowledge to do so.
The customer service is 100 times better with the investing platforms than bookies and betting exchanges too.

DPG wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:03 pm

It's so much better investing in the Stock Market than it is to bet - You can't get limited or banned buying ETF's and shares etc.
It's really very easy aswell. DCA in to low cost globally well diversified Index funds and ETF's and let compounding work its magic. That makes the core of your portfolio and allocate a small percentage to individual shares/sectors if you have the skills and knowledge to do so.
The customer service is 100 times better with the investing platforms than bookies and betting exchanges too.

The only question here is.....Do you know how to win?

Yes. You can't go wrong with low cost Globally diversified ETF's and Index Funds. They average 8-11% per year. (As long as you are prepared to hold them for the long term). I will happily take that. What is your strategy?

DPG wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:10 am

Yes. You can't go wrong with low cost Globally diversified ETF's and Index Funds. They average 8-11% per year. (As long as you are prepared to hold them for the long term). I will happily take that. What is your strategy?

I don't know how to win in those markets. Yes, these indexes looks great and have a good performance. But past profits don't implies future profits. Specially in the actual environment. Do you have any idea of how will be Europe or the US, in 10 years? Maybe the map will be so different.
Anyway, i am talking about a way to win from a mathematical point of view. You invest x and you obtain x+y.

One of my main holdings is MSCI World, so say if Europe, USA underperform in the next 10 years it should still do alright elsewhere.
I don't know how to analyse individual stocks effectively yet but hopefully will learn a little over time if that's what you mean by win from a mathematical point of view.

DPG wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:03 pm

It's so much better investing in the Stock Market than it is to bet - You can't get limited or banned buying ETF's and shares etc.
It's really very easy aswell. DCA in to low cost globally well diversified Index funds and ETF's and let compounding work its magic. That makes the core of your portfolio and allocate a small percentage to individual shares/sectors if you have the skills and knowledge to do so.
The customer service is 100 times better with the investing platforms than bookies and betting exchanges too.

lol you will make around 9-10% pre-tax annually from ETF while you can easily make 5% with just one bet it all depends on individual situation, if you have millions in your bank account then investing in stock market makes sense but if you have like 10k certainly betting is much better option to grow your wealth