Arbusers

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 10, 2024 5:52 am

Depending on the league and the time of betting, it’s also far from trivial that you can bet 4K at a time, even if you have the funds.

ehi I realized that the more I filter the parameters in the probabilities and statistics, the greater the profit. unfortunately, the more filters there are, the fewer bets there are in each league. filter too much I can't understand in the long run if I can be in profit or not. there are very few bets on championships

Well, this stuff is not easy @francesco.
That's why I recommend that you view this as a learning opportunity, more than an attempt to make money in the short term.

However, one thing is most definitely in your favor: you're very realistic, and not blinded by the fact that it's your model and that you want it to work.
Taking a real and careful assessment regarding how certain we are that a model is actually good is a key piece.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:31 am

Well, this stuff is not easy @francesco.
That's why I recommend that you view this as a learning opportunity, more than an attempt to make money in the short term.

However, one thing is most definitely in your favor: you're very realistic, and not blinded by the fact that it's your model and that you want it to work.
Taking a real and careful assessment regarding how certain we are that a model is actually good is a key piece.

I haven't invested in sports betting for months because I've run out of IDs. I would like to start earning with betting again and the only way I have left is to create a statistical model that works on pinnacle sports. I'm creating a statistical model to be able to make money in a few months and I'm sure I will succeed

francesco wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 11, 2024 7:32 am

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:31 am

Well, this stuff is not easy @francesco.
That's why I recommend that you view this as a learning opportunity, more than an attempt to make money in the short term.

However, one thing is most definitely in your favor: you're very realistic, and not blinded by the fact that it's your model and that you want it to work.
Taking a real and careful assessment regarding how certain we are that a model is actually good is a key piece.

I haven't invested in sports betting for months because I've run out of IDs. I would like to start earning with betting again and the only way I have left is to create a statistical model that works on pinnacle sports. I'm creating a statistical model to be able to make money in a few months and I'm sure I will succeed

Greetings. Is it possible that in the last 10 days a championship can vary a lot? I noticed this while experimenting with the statistical model. Maybe it's just my impression. I can understand when there are 5 weeks left and this can have a lot of variance for valid reasons, but the last 10 weeks seem too much to me and yet in a championship that I am analyzing it varies a lot

Real effects do exist. But it sounds to me like you’re overfitting already.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:27 am

Real effects do exist. But it sounds to me like you’re overfitting already.

overfitting I don't think so because in addition to the value calculation I am analyzing 3 other parameters in % to increase the profit and reduce the variance for each championship. Volevo aggiungere un altro ed ultimo parametro statistico e solo lo storico mi dirà se funziona oppure no. I really think that making profits on the same championship every end of the season is impossible. A series of championships would be needed to do a more in-depth analysis. the more championships you invest and the more bets you place, the more the stake decreases in %. my goal was to invest in only 2 championships. one summer and one winter. by studying the 2 championships carefully, if I managed to have as little variance as possible I could even bet a nice 4 or 5% per bet. but apparently just one championship to do an analysis doesn't seem like much.

Good luck.
It will be ice if you come back and report in a year.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:55 pm

Good luck.
It will be ice if you come back and report in a year.

The first test of my statistical model of my history for the 2023 first year championship ended today.

ex-hft wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 13, 2024 9:27 am

Real effects do exist. But it sounds to me like you’re overfitting already.

Is it possible that in a single championship there can be a season that ends in negative and the following year ends in positive?. I'm trying a new championship and in 2023 I would have closed in profit, but 2022 was a negative year. 2021 profitable again

I'm moving forward with the statistical model and my statistical model tells me a paltry +17/18% per year. I'm very angry with myself. I have no other solution to bet since I ran out of id

So you claim you can build a working statistical model, where you would bet money on, but you cant calculate the probabilities of how many bets you need minimum to be in profit and for each percentage profit scenario ?
Someone who just follows the steam will outperform you.

Wolfie wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 11, 2024 7:32 pm

So you claim you can build a working statistical model, where you would bet money on, but you cant calculate the probabilities of how many bets you need minimum to be in profit and for each percentage profit scenario ?
Someone who just follows the steam will outperform you.

in my statistical model I need at least 500 bets to be in profit. the statistical model is based on the calculation of the probability in statistical % by comparing the pinnacle sports odds. the probability in % must be at least 5% higher per bet. I'm only doing this on a 1X2 market......I know how value betting works. I made a lot of profit from it when I had the ID