Arbusers

Hello. I've been using value betting for a year
My main data comes from surebet provider
I have tried many strategies using the 1% edge bets, other bet with low odds to minimize volatility.

What do you recomend?
I have got the idea to play only value bets that yield over 10% to whatever, no matter odds are 10 20 or 100.
Any help is welcome
Regards
Bedati

These types of question require an answer at the size of an encyclopaedia. But I will try to keep it as short as possible. But before going to the core, I suggest that you make specific question in order to receive specific answers.

In my head, there are 4 dimensions in Value Betting.
1. Finding Value
2. Filtering Value
3. Have a staking plan
4. Placing bets

Let's get it one by one.
- You can find the value manually or by using an alert service. That was the easy part.

- Not all value odds represent real value. Some of the odds, no matter how generous they are, do not represent real value. As I argued several times, many bookmakers often set value traps. They are happy to have an unbalanced event, simply because they themselves are doing Value Betting. They have their good reasons to offer an arb against all others, just to get a good number of bets on their desired leg. In the end, you have to analyze thousands of bets and see where your blind spots are, and avoid these spots. For example, you might notice that you lose a lot of money with a Bookmaker in Championship X. Maybe there are some good reasons for that, and maybe you should avoid what is deemed as a value in this Championship from this bookmaker. Maybe another bookmaker is making you bleed money in an odds range from 5.00 and above. There must be some reasons for that.
- You have to find the staking plan that works well with your overall action. It could be a flat stake, a kelly criterion, one of the D' Alembert approaches, or anything else that works well in your case. This is up to you.
- Finally, placing bets is another big story. Do you have a wide range of bookmakers to place your bets, or is it just 3-4 bookmakers in total that would limit your performance? Even if it is just 1 bookmaker that brings the food in the table, that would be great, but one way or another you should have multiple sources and not rely to 1.

I hope these help.

Hi administrator, thank you very much for your reply.
My value bets come from 3 sources, 2 of them are value bets providers which you find in internet. The other is provided by a IA developer independent person.

As regards as the stake I place it depends of the bookie . When odds are from 1.2 to 2 I use to place 20 to 30 usd. For odds of 2.5 to 5 I place 10usd. And so on. 11 to 20 a stake of 5usd. And 2usd for higher odds
I play in 5 bookies. I have been restricted in some
I have been trying not to play bet over 20 odds to prevent high volatility
Now, I switched for highest edge bets no matter the odd
I did not know that some value bet with high odds were traps
My average edge has been 4% .
Any advise is welcome
Kind regards
Bedati

Ale dabul wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:52 pm

The other is provided by a IA developer independent person.

I m wondering how this person determines value in order to select the bets.
I see that you do have a stake plan that you implement. When the sample of bets get big, it might worth doing a meta-analysis to see what you can correct.
Also, I wonder what are your results so far. Could you provide figures? Number of bets, average stake, P/L?
Regards

A regular week I bet 1000 usd a day. I place 50 bets manually
At the end of the week I have 1150 to 1200usd
Some weeks I get even
I seldom lost a week
As I play different bets with different odds I do not know which ones are the best
The AI provider does only send bet for soccer in a over/under goals and in corners over/under. And the same markets in asian bets.
Most stakes edge are from 2 % to 15%
Value bets I find with more than 15 to 30% edge are the ones with high odds .
I am trying this new strategy to bet only over 10% edge bets
You may say that I could wagge 10k o 50k instead of 1000 a day. I prefer to be below the radar. I have been blocked in several bookies
I expect your answers
Kind regards
Bedati

One of the staking strategies consist in betting a proper amount to get the same money in any bet.
For instance: odds are 10. Your goal amount can be 20. You bet 2 usd
In case odds are 3 you bet 6.3usd
You get 20 usd in any hit no matter odds are
It is a way to measure your bets

Ale dabul wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 31, 2024 9:38 pm

In case odds are 3 you bet 6.3usd

Hell yeah, bet 6.3 usd and you are guaranteed you wont use your account anymore. Guess why?

We know that non round bets are suspected to be surebets
You can bet 7 or 6 . It might depend on the edge you have
The idea is to vary and spread your bets through many bookies. You can study in which bookies you can bet the most.

"Not all value odds represent real value. Some of the odds, no matter how generous they are, do not represent real value. As I argued several times, many bookmakers often set value traps"

Hi administrator, could you make some comments about this?

Ale dabul wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 07, 2024 12:03 am

"Not all value odds represent real value. Some of the odds, no matter how generous they are, do not represent real value. As I argued several times, many bookmakers often set value traps"

Hi administrator, could you make some comments about this?

Spend some time in the forum to search the term value trap. I have spent an unlimited amount of time writing about this. The same applies to other members of the forum.

I've been reading some value traps. Are they the one that offer higher odds as 21 41 51 101?

In case you have got a vaiety of % of edges and odds . Whoch are the most advantagious?

1)Odds from 1.2 to 2 with 2 to 4% edge
2)odds from 2 to 3 with 1 2 3 4 5 6% edge
3)odds from 5 to 10 with 10% edge
4)no matrer the odds. Over 20% edge

Could any other option be better?

A value trap is when a bookmaker gives higher prices than the real value of an outcome, intentionally keeping its book unbalanced, because he knows this outcome will not win. Attracted by the lucrative odds, Value bettors and arbers will then bet on this event, resulting to a bigger than normal profit for the bookmaker.

We know there are many unlikely results
For instance, a proper odd should be 1/15 but a bookmaker offers 1/20
Did you mean a situation like the one I said?

Don't mix value traps with palp errors.

What are palp errors?