Value traps
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arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
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Re: Value traps
If I understood the last posts correctly, I mean poorly liquid markets that can be manipulated by some players with relatively small stakes before the start of the event or later. In my view, these kinds of markets must be avoided. The time-series approach here is suicidal.
- ex-hft
- Has experience
- Karma: 14
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Re: Value traps
Maybe mean reversion to opening price after strong moves in this sort of market?
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arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
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Re: Value traps
The scientific approach doesn't exclude that, but long-time observations are required, and based on these ones proper conclusions are required. I personally avoid these "shady influenced" kinds of markets. But that kind of approach may be profitable for you personally, who knows? 
- VidaBlue
- To become a Pro
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- Karma: 69
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Re: Value traps
Agree. Simply avoiding certain markets with certain market conditions under the assumption that they are being manipulated, may be a succesful strategy in itself, raising the overall yield - playing these markets will make the value bettor most likely to lose than to gain, unless one is succesful in identifying a pattern.
- niel
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
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Re: Value traps
Do value traps happen most statistically speaking on the side of the sharp or soft? Because if sharpbook is often manipulated down on the side they don't want, then the "good side" on that sharp should show up as a value bet. Because it will be temporarily higher priced then the average of the market. So some value scanner might pick these up as value bets in that case.VidaBlue wrote: ↑Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:18 pmIn order to get closer to an answer, we would have to look at the proces leading up to your value bets.
I assume many of your bets are found by comparing odds at your soft bookmaker with a sharp reference on a certain outcome in a certain market. When the difference in odds reaches a certain threshold, you believe to have a value bet. But why did this difference in odds occur? Was it:
1. The sharp reference that lowered the odds on the outcome, while the soft didn't?
2. Your soft bookmaker who increased the odds on the outcome, while noone else did?
In the first case, your soft bookmaker cannot be accused of value trapping (unless they are able to manipulate the sharp lines). In the second case it could be. So if your soft bookmaker makes a first sudden change in odds in a market where noone did, you should be aware. Possible reasons:
1. Bookmaker needs to balance his books
2. A system glitch or personal mistake
3. Your bookmaker has exclusive information (value trap)
So depending on how value is occuring in your case (which I do not know) you may be a victim of value traps.
I don't believe my bookmakers balance their books. They do have some glitches though. It happens in very volatile markets where their system which must be programmed to auto-adapt to changing market odds, makes some hopeless adjustments - maybe the system cannot handle the volatility. I usually take the opportunity to place a bet. But if my bookmaker, out of the blue, in a very calm market, do adjustments creating a very lucrative value bet, when noone else does, it is tempting, but when something is to good to be true, it is often the case. I will either avoid the bet or I will bet on the other outcome at another bookmaker.
Value traps, as described above, is not something that keeps me from sleeping. I find them rather rare. What is much more essential each day, is to evaluate whether your sharp line is being backed by sharp bettors or whether it is being manipulated in order to achieve higher odds elsewhere. Many soft bookmaker systems are more or less hard-wired to the sharps, but the volume of stakes they can handle is much more than, say, a 100 euro limit at Pinnacle. Maybe you could be a victim of manipulation instead?
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