Your theory definitely has logic! However, I can see the applicability of this formula for markets with less liquidity. I wouldn't dare to use the same formula at betfair, a few minutes before the start of a horse raceRod Man wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:36 pmGuys, I would like to discuss some moments from the strategy with the author and the users who already got it.
Let's discuss "My secret formula to calculating odds". This is a very interesting approach buy it needs to be discussed deeply.
Firstly, can we consider the approach to be a reliable method for finding true odds?
Secondly, this approach uses the total volume of money that staked on both the Back and the Lay. If one horse has more volume than others, then the only thing we can say for sure is that this horse had the most interest from the players. This interest can be from back bettors, lay bettors, or both. Whose interest is greater - the movement of the odds shows only, and we can conclude whether we should Back or Lay regarding this odds movement.
My perception of the market: when the liquidity in the market is small and at the same time the valubet on the specific horse is huge, someone is ready to take a big range of odds. Someone is maybe willing to start betting on a horse at odds of 15 and push the odds to 8. We know that people on betfair can prepare in advance odds where they see value, so if we see the current odds of 15 and we see that there are only 50 available at that price € of liquidity, we will be ready to eat even lower odds (we will slowly press on the market). So the odds will start to drop as someone with information gradually puts pressure on that horse.
If you will concentrate only on one factor in this formula you will never understand the purpose how I developed this formula. Point is to combine many factors in one strong logic. As results, you will fast see that you beat the closing odds by bigger margin with this formula. If you bet on all valubets on horses, your yield would drop.
