Arbusers

I have a question to avoid reinventing the wheel and would like to ask for everyone's opinion. If anything is unclear please question me.
We usually do real-time arbitrage, which means placing bets simultaneously on two companies when their odds satisfy our requirements. Is it possible to analyze all available mainstream companies' bettype,odds, spreads, etc. to identify trends in how the odds change, and then perform asynchronous arbitrage based on the trends?
I think this may work based on these principles:
Bookmakers do not want to lose money on any given match.
Each company has non-payout costs that are not zero - if they don't make money, they lose money. For example, the moneyback on Asianhandicaps also has payout costs.
The monyeline, Asianhandicap, and over/under markets decide almost all the profits and losses for that match.
Based on the above three points and historical data, we can model the overall payout rate (not just one market but the whole match) for mainstream bookmakers.
Factors like the Earth's rotation and timing of bets placed.
Not all companies have analytics for every match - many just follow the crowd to avoid losses.
Once a mainstream bookie has unbalanced action, whether they increase payouts, lower odds, or hedge, it will impact other companies' odds.
Given these points, is it possible to identify trends in how odds change, and at minimum find correlated strategies? For example:
Bookmakers A's high odd Asianhandicap moves in the same direction as Bookmakers B's high odd Asian handicap.
Bookmakers A's moneyline odds are strongly correlated with Bookmakers B's Asianhandicap and over/under markets.
There are more examples I won't list them all here.

You are not re-inventing the wheel with your questions. Actually, many smart bettors are trend followers but their strategies and their results vary a lot depending on many factors.

For example, back in the days, I was practising classic Technical Analysis in Betfair's odds for horse racings. In retrospect, I can say this thing didn't worth well, and I could dedicate my time, efforts and money to other more profitable techniques.

Ever wonder why many bettors are looking for early lines? It is because they have their own statistical models to predict the fair odds of an event. And yes, many bookmakers do fear publishing early odds, because there is a price to pay for that. They need to see what the bigger guys are doing and then try to copy them while staying under the radar of the predators. Thus, odds from various bookmakers are indeed correlated one another. Let me give you an example validated every day for some 20 years now. Certain off-shore bookmakers will publish odds some hours after Pinnacle with the addition of some juice.

There are many techniques to identify value, but don't expect anyone to share them. I m sure you know the free meal theory. Another question would be...: If you are that smart identifying trends and value, why don't you let the bet stand without covering it to other bookmakers?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 15, 2023 11:08 am

You are not re-inventing the wheel with your questions. Actually, many smart bettors are trend followers but their strategies and their results vary a lot depending on many factors.

For example, back in the days, I was practising classic Technical Analysis in Betfair's odds for horse racings. In retrospect, I can say this thing didn't worth well, and I could dedicate my time, efforts and money to other more profitable techniques.

Ever wonder why many bettors are looking for early lines? It is because they have their own statistical models to predict the fair odds of an event. And yes, many bookmakers do fear publishing early odds, because there is a price to pay for that. They need to see what the bigger guys are doing and then try to copy them while staying under the radar of the predators. Thus, odds from various bookmakers are indeed correlated one another. Let me give you an example validated every day for some 20 years now. Certain off-shore bookmakers will publish odds some hours after Pinnacle with the addition of some juice.

There are many techniques to identify value, but don't expect anyone to share them. I m sure you know the free meal theory. Another question would be...: If you are that smart identifying trends and value, why don't you let the bet stand without covering it to other bookmakers?

betting on early odds is one of my strategies too, I love to exploit early lines especially on lesser known leagues/events. You wont believe how much value you can find most of the time

I also think that balancing is overrated. It's a theory, but a lot of bookies don't do it and have profits from unfavorable odds on favorites.

Trevorr wrote: ↑

Fri Nov 17, 2023 3:10 am

I also think that balancing is overrated. It's a theory, but a lot of bookies don't do it and have profits from unfavorable odds on favorites.

Yes. Some bookmakers take risks as well. Some others are pushing their liabilities to exchanges or other bookmakers, while others... have very credible info and they are willing to risk a lot as far as they know they have an advantage.