Arbusers

Hello everyone!
English is not my first language, so please understand. I have been a member of this forum since 2018, but I don't have a single post so far. I have a lot of experience with betting, bonuses and arbing, but what has occupied me the most in recent years is value betting.
I had one method that worked great on Bet365, but it never really satisfied me because of the quick account limit. My ultimate goal was to find a method that works on the Betfair exchange and now I'm sure I've found it. Here are the actual results (with 2% commission included) for a total of 1094 bets played over 13 days. The total profit is 104.53 units, which gives a yield of 9.55%. I have to admit that I didn't expect such good results because I tried to find a model several times, but none of them completely satisfied me.
I have a question for experienced users: due to my inexperience in playing value bets, I am interested in what would be the ideal money management for these results? That is, I am interested in how long a negative streak can be expected? I still haven't done a full in-depth analysis of everything played. I think the average played odds are in the range of 3.20 to 4.00

ztetec wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:41 pm

Hello everyone!
English is not my first language, so please understand. I have been a member of this forum since 2018, but I don't have a single post so far. I have a lot of experience with betting, bonuses and arbing, but what has occupied me the most in recent years is value betting.
I had one method that worked great on Bet365, but it never really satisfied me because of the quick account limit. My ultimate goal was to find a method that works on the Betfair exchange and now I'm sure I've found it. Here are the actual results (with 2% commission included) for a total of 1094 bets played over 13 days. The total profit is 104.53 units, which gives a yield of 9.55%. I have to admit that I didn't expect such good results because I tried to find a model several times, but none of them completely satisfied me.
I have a question for experienced users: due to my inexperience in playing value bets, I am interested in what would be the ideal money management for these results? That is, I am interested in how long a negative streak can be expected? I still haven't done a full in-depth analysis of everything played. I think the average played odds are in the range of 3.20 to 4.00

Can you tell me what the bet365 method is?

The basis on which the model works for Bet365: take one of the surebet services, for example Betburger, and search for all surebets Bet365 vs Betfair (from -0.50 % to more) and Bet365 vs Pinnacle. The minimum odds at Bet365 should be 1.80
For a better yield, a fine selection should be made by sports and odds range.

ztetec wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 9:13 pm

The basis on which the model works for Bet365: take one of the surebet services, for example Betburger, and search for all surebets Bet365 vs Betfair (from -0.50 % to more) and Bet365 vs Pinnacle. The minimum odds at Bet365 should be 1.80
For a better yield, a fine selection should be made by sports and odds range.

Thx

ztetec wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:41 pm

Hello everyone!
English is not my first language, so please understand. I have been a member of this forum since 2018, but I don't have a single post so far. I have a lot of experience with betting, bonuses and arbing, but what has occupied me the most in recent years is value betting.
I had one method that worked great on Bet365, but it never really satisfied me because of the quick account limit. My ultimate goal was to find a method that works on the Betfair exchange and now I'm sure I've found it. Here are the actual results (with 2% commission included) for a total of 1094 bets played over 13 days. The total profit is 104.53 units, which gives a yield of 9.55%. I have to admit that I didn't expect such good results because I tried to find a model several times, but none of them completely satisfied me.
I have a question for experienced users: due to my inexperience in playing value bets, I am interested in what would be the ideal money management for these results? That is, I am interested in how long a negative streak can be expected? I still haven't done a full in-depth analysis of everything played. I think the average played odds are in the range of 3.20 to 4.00

Do you plan to play horse racing?

About the calculation of the streak in the series of trials, you'd better read this article first:

pages.stern.nyu.edu/~churvich/Undergrad/Handouts1/13-Streak.pdf

Note that your odds are not constant! Carefully use the averages or even more conservative methods. Bear in mind, the expected streak in the series of N trials is NOT the maximum length in reality!

The next thing to do is to make sure again and again that you have a very good reference to calculate the value. Test your reference for weaknesses. Your sample of the above 1K attempts and results are OK, but the results of the first 13 days are not representative of the next 13 years. Otherwise, sooner or later you'll return those profits.
Monte Carlo simulations are recommended.

You can test different money management methods by yourself or through software called the staking machine. But no money management wins if the expected value is negative.
Later consider Kelly-based methods, different from full Kelly!

Wish you success!

Thanks for the information and useful tips. Now I have a larger sample, 1578 bets in total. Soccer and tennis are the sports played in 90% of all bets. The average winning odds is 4.35 (decimal). I'm still in the experimentation phase, I'll probably add some additional criteria when choosing matches. Model testing will take some time, I think one year is long enough. And after that time, I plan to do a complete analysis and set the final criteria for selecting matches.
Thanks to everyone who has joined or will join the discussion.

ztetec wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:45 pm

Thanks for the information and useful tips. Now I have a larger sample, 1578 bets in total. Soccer and tennis are the sports played in 90% of all bets. The average winning odds is 4.35 (decimal). I'm still in the experimentation phase, I'll probably add some additional criteria when choosing matches. Model testing will take some time, I think one year is long enough. And after that time, I plan to do a complete analysis and set the final criteria for selecting matches.
Thanks to everyone who has joined or will join the discussion.

Hey, note the growing number of your trials (you mentioned over 1.5k) using your long odds. Using the formulas in the link I gave you in the previous post, recalculate the expected loss sequences for N trials, later for N+Y trials, etc. Are you preparing your action plan for the day when the MAXIMUM loss sequence will inevitably exceed the expected loss sequence according to the formulas? Increase Monte Carlo simulations by multiplying many times your expected number of trials. Here comes the good news. More and more trials (real events, not simulations) completed by you, will undoubtedly increase your experience and expertise, so one possible line of defense against those unnecessary bad streaks could be filtering quality events into your strategy. As an automatic bonus, you will gain hidden value in this process somewhere in time (assume you're a long-distance runner), but you will discover this in retrospect in your backtests. Yeah, that'll cause more value odds in future trials (and therefore could mitigate expected negative sequences at those accepted +EV odds, according to the pure theory).

Odds in those mentioned by you interval are good for Horse Racing in some predefined circumstances. But you said Tennis and Soccer. How about the events beyond 2 sigmas or 3σ situations (I'm using that terminology here for illustrative purposes only in this example. The actual type of Statistics distribution you use depends only on your accepted methodology and know-how). Consider your odds-making activity in those random examples of my practice (Soccer & Tennis):
- France vs Luxembourg 0:0 2017, several days after their win vs the Netherlands 4:0;
- Bodø/Glimt - AS Roma 6:1;
- French Open - Grigor Dimitrov's defeat vs Marcos Giron after several match points in his favor - 6:2, 6:4, 5:1, 40:0;
- French Open - Radwanska lost 10 games in a row and the match vs Pironkova;
- Eugenie Bouchard's loss vs Kristina Mladenovic in Birmingham;
- Again Kiki Mladenovic - her shocking loss in the US Open vs Gracheva after leading 6:1 5:2, 40:0 and four match points;
Some events over the years forced me to place stop-loss positions and learn a lot, spending endless time fine-tuning my model.
Some fine-tuning gave me invaluable triggers, for example:
- Eugenie Bouchard's stunning loss vs Cristina-Andreea Mitu, FED Cup.
- Appearing some predicted value in some matches of non-widely-famous players named Markos Kalovelonis and Sara Čakarević.
- Víctor Estrella Burgos' three ATP titles during his late 30s in Quito as a huge underdog were pretty OK for me;) In the Santo Domingo Challenger too.
If your strategy can mitigate or otherwise deal with beyond the 2 and 3 sigma region events, the game will become more enjoyable.

This is true, but the situation is much more complicated than it seems.

Rod Man wrote: ↑

Sun Jul 09, 2023 9:43 pm

ztetec wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:41 pm

I had one method that worked great on Bet365, but it never really satisfied me because of the quick account limit.

If you have a lot of experience with bonuses, then what is the problem with Bet365 accounts limitations?
As an experienced bonushunter, you should use as many Bet365 accounts as you like.

How? You must have a lot of friends with bank accounts...

I don't have much experience with how Bet365 works. I had a dozen accounts and they were all limited to 0. My last account on which I played valuebetting lasted about 10 days. The average bet was around 12 EUR, and the profit after 10 days was around 550 EUR. If you continue to play on new accounts using the same method, I believe that the accounts will be limited faster and faster because you will surely get a red flag. It might help if you play multiple accounts at the same time, and play a different sport on each one. You should ask more experienced players at Bet365

is there even way to win without soft bookmakers where we dont have to worry about getting limited.

Rod Man wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:42 pm

ztetec wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:54 pm

This is true, but the situation is much more complicated than it seems.

You said that you used Bet365 before. I just want to ask you.

I have a lot (hundreds) of old (4-5 years old) Bet365 UK accounts where PayPal is among the deposit/withdrawal methods. So I do not need cards or bank accounts in large quantities. All my Bet365 accounts were verified by the real UK documents. Each of the accounts was used for 2 bets only, i.e. they are not limited.
So what do you advise me:

1. To sell all these accounts.
2. To use them by myself.

If I use them for valuebetting, can I get at least $250-300 of the net profit from each account?
If no, I think it would be more wise to sell them for $100 and find other way for making money.

Have you passed selfie checks on these accounts?

Rod Man wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:42 pm

ztetec wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:54 pm

This is true, but the situation is much more complicated than it seems.

You said that you used Bet365 before. I just want to ask you.

I have a lot (hundreds) of old (4-5 years old) Bet365 UK accounts where PayPal is among the deposit/withdrawal methods. So I do not need cards or bank accounts in large quantities. All my Bet365 accounts were verified by the real UK documents. Each of the accounts was used for 2 bets only, i.e. they are not limited.
So what do you advise me:

1. To sell all these accounts.
2. To use them by myself.

If I use them for valuebetting, can I get at least $250-300 of the net profit from each account?
If no, I think it would be more wise to sell them for $100 and find other way for making money.

Sure you can make 250-300 per account.

Rod Man wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:42 pm

ztetec wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:54 pm

This is true, but the situation is much more complicated than it seems.

You said that you used Bet365 before. I just want to ask you.

I have a lot (hundreds) of old (4-5 years old) Bet365 UK accounts where PayPal is among the deposit/withdrawal methods. So I do not need cards or bank accounts in large quantities. All my Bet365 accounts were verified by the real UK documents. Each of the accounts was used for 2 bets only, i.e. they are not limited.
So what do you advise me:

1. To sell all these accounts.
2. To use them by myself.

If I use them for valuebetting, can I get at least $250-300 of the net profit from each account?
If no, I think it would be more wise to sell them for $100 and find other way for making money.

I'm actually with this issue in hands.

Bought one account. In 10 days valuebetting (a lot of minor markets and leagues in different sports) and following a tipster for horse racing, i have doubled the bankroll, only with 5, 10 and 20$ bets.

Just got limited to something between 3$ and 5$.

It seems that the only solution to make the accounts profitable after buying them is to increase the betting stake.

Bastard wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 11, 2023 3:40 pm

Rod Man wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 11, 2023 12:42 pm

ztetec wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:54 pm

This is true, but the situation is much more complicated than it seems.

You said that you used Bet365 before. I just want to ask you.

I have a lot (hundreds) of old (4-5 years old) Bet365 UK accounts where PayPal is among the deposit/withdrawal methods. So I do not need cards or bank accounts in large quantities. All my Bet365 accounts were verified by the real UK documents. Each of the accounts was used for 2 bets only, i.e. they are not limited.
So what do you advise me:

1. To sell all these accounts.
2. To use them by myself.

If I use them for valuebetting, can I get at least $250-300 of the net profit from each account?
If no, I think it would be more wise to sell them for $100 and find other way for making money.

Sure you can make 250-300 per account.

Might not be a good effort if the accounts are bought for 150.

Does it make sense to bet in a specific sport in one account and to the same for every account you own?

What are your thoughts?