I am not an TA expert.
But technically I see similar patterns between BTC (pick measured from april 2021) and nasdaq (2000-2002) with potential that bitcoin can hit bottom in Q3/Q4 this year.
Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
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- cortomaltese
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This "BTC is king" behaviour of market starts to remind me of autumn 2017 , when almost everybody (incl. me obviously)
was thinking that BTC is expensive and i must now go to alts , however BTC was keep going up and alts was bleeding in BTC price terms!
So i was holding alt bags hoping that eventually they will outperform BTC ! Will not do the same mistake twice!
But why BTC is pumping?
Is it BUSD recovery fund buying BTC ?
Is it stablecoin's/USD scared holders trying to protect their funds?
Is it short squeezes ?
I can't forget that last time we had a major bank crisis back in 2008 was when BTC invented and launched !
Is history repeating ?
Who knows? Time will tell...
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Yeap! Nice to see!
This "BTC is king" behaviour of market starts to remind me of autumn 2017 , when almost everybody (incl. me obviously)
was thinking that BTC is expensive and i must now go to alts , however BTC was keep going up and alts was bleeding in BTC price terms!
So i was holding alt bags hoping that eventually they will outperform BTC ! Will not do the same mistake twice!
But why BTC is pumping?
Is it BUSD recovery fund buying BTC ?
Is it stablecoin's/USD scared holders trying to protect their funds?
Is it short squeezes ?
I can't forget that last time we had a major bank crisis back in 2008 was when BTC invented and launched !
Is history repeating ?
Who knows? Time will tell...
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Also in halving year BTC dominance should stay high. In halving year most probable is that BTC dominance will hit the pick.
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
If we study the past 2023 should be a year wher BITCOIN dominance pumps up.cortomaltese wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:13 pmYeap! Nice to see!
This "BTC is king" behaviour of market starts to remind me of autumn 2017 , when almost everybody (incl. me obviously)
was thinking that BTC is expensive and i must now go to alts , however BTC was keep going up and alts was bleeding in BTC price terms!
So i was holding alt bags hoping that eventually they will outperform BTC ! Will not do the same mistake twice!
But why BTC is pumping?
Is it BUSD recovery fund buying BTC ?
Is it stablecoin's/USD scared holders trying to protect their funds?
Is it short squeezes ?
I can't forget that last time we had a major bank crisis back in 2008 was when BTC invented and launched !
Is history repeating ?
Who knows? Time will tell...
Also in halving year BTC dominance should stay high. In halving year most probable is that BTC dominance will hit the pick.
- cortomaltese
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Fair enough , however last halving (May 2020) this didn't happened! On the contrary ETH for example consistenly outperformed BTC!crypto data wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:10 pmIf we study the past 2023 should be a year wher BITCOIN dominance pumps up.cortomaltese wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:13 pmYeap! Nice to see!
This "BTC is king" behaviour of market starts to remind me of autumn 2017 , when almost everybody (incl. me obviously)
was thinking that BTC is expensive and i must now go to alts , however BTC was keep going up and alts was bleeding in BTC price terms!
So i was holding alt bags hoping that eventually they will outperform BTC ! Will not do the same mistake twice!
But why BTC is pumping?
Is it BUSD recovery fund buying BTC ?
Is it stablecoin's/USD scared holders trying to protect their funds?
Is it short squeezes ?
I can't forget that last time we had a major bank crisis back in 2008 was when BTC invented and launched !
Is history repeating ?
Who knows? Time will tell...
Also in halving year BTC dominance should stay high. In halving year most probable is that BTC dominance will hit the pick.
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- BTC dominance picked when(around that time) BTC broke ATH at $20k
- BTC dominance was also very close to its pick in september 2019. September is often time when BTC dominance start a new trend.
Now the market start predicting potential recession for 2023. If this realy hapends, this may be a case when BTC will picke vs ETH in this cycle, Anather pick for BTC dominance will be probably at new ATH - if we reach ATH in this cycle
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
- ETH mesured in BTC bottom in 2019.cortomaltese wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:15 pmFair enough , however last halving (May 2020) this didn't happened! On the contrary ETH for example consistenly outperformed BTC!crypto data wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:10 pmIf we study the past 2023 should be a year wher BITCOIN dominance pumps up.cortomaltese wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:13 pm
Yeap! Nice to see!
This "BTC is king" behaviour of market starts to remind me of autumn 2017 , when almost everybody (incl. me obviously)
was thinking that BTC is expensive and i must now go to alts , however BTC was keep going up and alts was bleeding in BTC price terms!
So i was holding alt bags hoping that eventually they will outperform BTC ! Will not do the same mistake twice!
But why BTC is pumping?
Is it BUSD recovery fund buying BTC ?
Is it stablecoin's/USD scared holders trying to protect their funds?
Is it short squeezes ?
I can't forget that last time we had a major bank crisis back in 2008 was when BTC invented and launched !
Is history repeating ?
Who knows? Time will tell...
Also in halving year BTC dominance should stay high. In halving year most probable is that BTC dominance will hit the pick.
- BTC dominance picked when(around that time) BTC broke ATH at $20k
- BTC dominance was also very close to its pick in september 2019. September is often time when BTC dominance start a new trend.
Now the market start predicting potential recession for 2023. If this realy hapends, this may be a case when BTC will picke vs ETH in this cycle, Anather pick for BTC dominance will be probably at new ATH - if we reach ATH in this cycle
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
Today it is Saturday the 18th of March 2023 and I will go for the long shot. Take a mental screenshot of this post, keep a note and put it in your wallet.
As I said several times, after numerous hours in front of Tradingview I developed my own custom made metrics for BTC. I will not share these metrics with anyone as they are my spiritual child. These last months I m modifying these metrics to serve me in stocks as well.
I now have enough analysed data to argue about the next Technical Cycle Top time. Do not distort my words, I am talking about a Cycle Top and not new All Time High (ATH). I need more analysis and more data from the market to determine that. I do not know yet if we have an ATH during this cycle. Today, my analysis shows there is a 70% probability that we have a new ATH at the end of this cycle, and a 30% probability we will not have it.
I argue this Cycle Top will be in mid to late October of 2025. You read it firstly here in arbusers.com. It might create a self fulfilled prophecy as many entertainers in Youtube and Twitter will copy what I say in the months/years to come.
Be careful. I am not talking about the road of BTC, I am talking about the time it arrives at its destination. I am highlighting an asterisk here, the above analysis will change if BTC price goes below $15500 before October 2025.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
As I said several times, after numerous hours in front of Tradingview I developed my own custom made metrics for BTC. I will not share these metrics with anyone as they are my spiritual child. These last months I m modifying these metrics to serve me in stocks as well.
I now have enough analysed data to argue about the next Technical Cycle Top time. Do not distort my words, I am talking about a Cycle Top and not new All Time High (ATH). I need more analysis and more data from the market to determine that. I do not know yet if we have an ATH during this cycle. Today, my analysis shows there is a 70% probability that we have a new ATH at the end of this cycle, and a 30% probability we will not have it.
I argue this Cycle Top will be in mid to late October of 2025. You read it firstly here in arbusers.com. It might create a self fulfilled prophecy as many entertainers in Youtube and Twitter will copy what I say in the months/years to come.
Be careful. I am not talking about the road of BTC, I am talking about the time it arrives at its destination. I am highlighting an asterisk here, the above analysis will change if BTC price goes below $15500 before October 2025.
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
my target price October of 2025 = 64 500 - 111 111 usd
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
We have a new weekly candle that was printed yesterday night, and it gives us further evidence and data about the current state of play. As I said several times a larger time frame is offering a better picture compared to a smaller. That is why I prefer using the weekly chart instead of the daily.
In the next chart you see our very well and very early defined accumulation box. The previous week ending 6th of March created a long wick tale that touched the support. This support worked like a stimulus that made BTC jump in the next week. That week printed another engulfing weekly candle that engulfed 3 weeks. We had even more engulfing candles (weekly and monthly) before that. We can also see the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) that got rid of any negative divergences. Altogether they create confidence that we are in the new cycle now. I am afraid all these Capos, Gareths, etc evangelising new lows will have to wait a lot.
However, there is a flip side too. If we continue upwards with this pace, we will face a severe correction within the next 2-3 weeks. It is voluptuous seeing BTC going up 5% every day, but this comes with dangers. Moving Averages and other technicals will move to overbought ranges. If the market sentiment is screaming up-up-up, and all these paid Youtube and Twitter entertainers change their narratives, then only the cheese in the trap is free, as the Russian proverb says. My preferred scenario for BTC right now, is to take some breaths before moving upwards again.
Again, do your own DD.
In the next chart you see our very well and very early defined accumulation box. The previous week ending 6th of March created a long wick tale that touched the support. This support worked like a stimulus that made BTC jump in the next week. That week printed another engulfing weekly candle that engulfed 3 weeks. We had even more engulfing candles (weekly and monthly) before that. We can also see the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) that got rid of any negative divergences. Altogether they create confidence that we are in the new cycle now. I am afraid all these Capos, Gareths, etc evangelising new lows will have to wait a lot.
- BTC latest.png (507.59 KiB) Viewed 978 times
However, there is a flip side too. If we continue upwards with this pace, we will face a severe correction within the next 2-3 weeks. It is voluptuous seeing BTC going up 5% every day, but this comes with dangers. Moving Averages and other technicals will move to overbought ranges. If the market sentiment is screaming up-up-up, and all these paid Youtube and Twitter entertainers change their narratives, then only the cheese in the trap is free, as the Russian proverb says. My preferred scenario for BTC right now, is to take some breaths before moving upwards again.
Again, do your own DD.
- cortomaltese
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Post
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I must admit i am not a trader (whenever i tried was a disaster) , so from a long term investor's view -as i am-
i say that i am perfectly calm watching this from the sidelines as it unfolds and i wouldn't think to
sell even a small part of my precious BTC before ... say 43 k$ upwards!
However i am tempting to ask what would be
your selling target prices , as i am sure many of our readers ..
i say that i am perfectly calm watching this from the sidelines as it unfolds and i wouldn't think to
sell even a small part of my precious BTC before ... say 43 k$ upwards!
However i am tempting to ask what would be
your selling target prices , as i am sure many of our readers ..
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I have no selling targets. If technicals show fatigue and if there is confluence then I will put everything on the table and I will draw my plan.
I will be very happy if I don't have to sell anything until the very end of the cycle as near as possible to the top of the cycle. That is why my preferred scenario is about taking breaths before moving forward.
I will be very happy if I don't have to sell anything until the very end of the cycle as near as possible to the top of the cycle. That is why my preferred scenario is about taking breaths before moving forward.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
We had a new monthly candle printed some hours ago. I thought to have a look at the monthly chart. It is very encouraging and it shows that we are very well positioned in our way to...
Of course it will be a bumpy road, but we know where the destination is. Enjoy the ride.
Do your own Due Diligence.
The January engulfing candle pays the dividend we expected to pay. We have a support line coming from November 2021, that March 2023 used as a base to jump higher. The graph is simple and clean. All great ideas are simple.
- BTC latest.png (404.8 KiB) Viewed 783 times
Of course it will be a bumpy road, but we know where the destination is. Enjoy the ride.
Do your own Due Diligence.
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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I would like to add some more results of my thinking process in regards to BTC investing.
So far I have the first Axiom of my analysis, that is…
The 5th discipline that I follow, as explained in the first post of this thread, is market sentiment. Today, this market sentiment is widely expressed divided into 2 categories. Real Market participants and meme investors. The first are usually winners, while the latest are blood givers. Meme investors are influenced widely by Youtube, Twitter and probably a couple more channels not named here. People allowing themselves to be exposed will in the end pay a price by losing wealth, or by losing the opportunity to create wealth.
Today’s market sentiment is dividing Blood Givers into 2 categories.
a. Those who believe that we are still in a bear market. Gareths, Capos and others with no skin in the game are in this position.
b. Those who expect the 100k 1mn, Moon boys etc. PlanBs, and the Veles teens are preaching this position.
Both of them will be proved wrong and they will be surprised by the market. But, a clever thinker would ask, in which way will they be surprised? The market has its own unique ways to get everyone off guard. In order not to get caught I need to zoom out and see the broader picture.
Cycles 1, 2 and 3 have been uniformly convex with Inward curves. Most probably, Cycle 4 will stop this tradition and will be an upward curve. Are you surprised?
The reason why I say this is because 2023 is a US pre-election year. These pre-election years are the best performers of the 4 year Presidency and that means the SP500 at the end of the year will be significantly higher than 3830. Subsequently, BTC price will be exaggerated and at the end of the year we will be in a much higher position, but without a new All Time High (ATH) to invalidate the Moon boys. So let's suppose for the shake of the argument that BTC price at the end of 2023 will be around 43 to 46K.
2024 comes with an anchoring event for BTC which is called halving. It is scheduled to happen in April 24 and it should be followed by an ATH that should occur approximately in September 24. Do not take dates and prices to the bank. They are indicative but they have good possibilities to come true. So the 69k landmark should be achieved near September 2024.
My Axiom is talking about a top in mid to late October 2025. This will be a technical top, but could also coincide with an actual top. The target is somewhere between 65 and 80K. Moon boys will be caught off guard once again, expecting the millions and the Lambos.
Of course, all dates and price targets are subject to everyday action, and every trading day is adding more data to my analysis. This is what I understand right now based on all 5 disciplines that I follow and I reserve the right to change my opinion when new facts dictate differently.
And of course, do your own DD.
So far I have the first Axiom of my analysis, that is…
The 5th discipline that I follow, as explained in the first post of this thread, is market sentiment. Today, this market sentiment is widely expressed divided into 2 categories. Real Market participants and meme investors. The first are usually winners, while the latest are blood givers. Meme investors are influenced widely by Youtube, Twitter and probably a couple more channels not named here. People allowing themselves to be exposed will in the end pay a price by losing wealth, or by losing the opportunity to create wealth.
Today’s market sentiment is dividing Blood Givers into 2 categories.
a. Those who believe that we are still in a bear market. Gareths, Capos and others with no skin in the game are in this position.
b. Those who expect the 100k 1mn, Moon boys etc. PlanBs, and the Veles teens are preaching this position.
Both of them will be proved wrong and they will be surprised by the market. But, a clever thinker would ask, in which way will they be surprised? The market has its own unique ways to get everyone off guard. In order not to get caught I need to zoom out and see the broader picture.
Cycles 1, 2 and 3 have been uniformly convex with Inward curves. Most probably, Cycle 4 will stop this tradition and will be an upward curve. Are you surprised?
The reason why I say this is because 2023 is a US pre-election year. These pre-election years are the best performers of the 4 year Presidency and that means the SP500 at the end of the year will be significantly higher than 3830. Subsequently, BTC price will be exaggerated and at the end of the year we will be in a much higher position, but without a new All Time High (ATH) to invalidate the Moon boys. So let's suppose for the shake of the argument that BTC price at the end of 2023 will be around 43 to 46K.
2024 comes with an anchoring event for BTC which is called halving. It is scheduled to happen in April 24 and it should be followed by an ATH that should occur approximately in September 24. Do not take dates and prices to the bank. They are indicative but they have good possibilities to come true. So the 69k landmark should be achieved near September 2024.
My Axiom is talking about a top in mid to late October 2025. This will be a technical top, but could also coincide with an actual top. The target is somewhere between 65 and 80K. Moon boys will be caught off guard once again, expecting the millions and the Lambos.
Of course, all dates and price targets are subject to everyday action, and every trading day is adding more data to my analysis. This is what I understand right now based on all 5 disciplines that I follow and I reserve the right to change my opinion when new facts dictate differently.
And of course, do your own DD.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
I would add that pre-halving years were always pre-election yearsarbusers wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 8:25 amI would like to add some more results of my thinking process in regards to BTC investing.
So far I have the first Axiom of my analysis, that is…
The 5th discipline that I follow, as explained in the first post of this thread, is market sentiment. Today, this market sentiment is widely expressed divided into 2 categories. Real Market participants and meme investors. The first are usually winners, while the latest are blood givers. Meme investors are influenced widely by Youtube, Twitter and probably a couple more channels not named here. People allowing themselves to be exposed will in the end pay a price by losing wealth, or by losing the opportunity to create wealth.
Today’s market sentiment is dividing Blood Givers into 2 categories.
a. Those who believe that we are still in a bear market. Gareths, Capos and others with no skin in the game are in this position.
b. Those who expect the 100k 1mn, Moon boys etc. PlanBs, and the Veles teens are preaching this position.
Both of them will be proved wrong and they will be surprised by the market. But, a clever thinker would ask, in which way will they be surprised? The market has its own unique ways to get everyone off guard. In order not to get caught I need to zoom out and see the broader picture.
Cycles 1, 2 and 3 have been uniformly convex with Inward curves. Most probably, Cycle 4 will stop this tradition and will be an upward curve. Are you surprised?
The reason why I say this is because 2023 is a US pre-election year. These pre-election years are the best performers of the 4 year Presidency and that means the SP500 at the end of the year will be significantly higher than 3830. Subsequently, BTC price will be exaggerated and at the end of the year we will be in a much higher position, but without a new All Time High (ATH) to invalidate the Moon boys. So let's suppose for the shake of the argument that BTC price at the end of 2023 will be around 43 to 46K.
2024 comes with an anchoring event for BTC which is called halving. It is scheduled to happen in April 24 and it should be followed by an ATH that should occur approximately in September 24. Do not take dates and prices to the bank. They are indicative but they have good possibilities to come true. So the 69k landmark should be achieved near September 2024.
My Axiom is talking about a top in mid to late October 2025. This will be a technical top, but could also coincide with an actual top. The target is somewhere between 65 and 80K. Moon boys will be caught off guard once again, expecting the millions and the Lambos.
Of course, all dates and price targets are subject to everyday action, and every trading day is adding more data to my analysis. This is what I understand right now based on all 5 disciplines that I follow and I reserve the right to change my opinion when new facts dictate differently.
And of course, do your own DD.
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apoel81
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Few months ago you wrote that in this bull cycle, no ATM is expected. Assume the pic below is no longer valid?
Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy
arbusers wrote: ↑Sun Apr 23, 2023 8:25 amI would like to add some more results of my thinking process in regards to BTC investing.
So far I have the first Axiom of my analysis, that is…
The 5th discipline that I follow, as explained in the first post of this thread, is market sentiment. Today, this market sentiment is widely expressed divided into 2 categories. Real Market participants and meme investors. The first are usually winners, while the latest are blood givers. Meme investors are influenced widely by Youtube, Twitter and probably a couple more channels not named here. People allowing themselves to be exposed will in the end pay a price by losing wealth, or by losing the opportunity to create wealth.
Today’s market sentiment is dividing Blood Givers into 2 categories.
a. Those who believe that we are still in a bear market. Gareths, Capos and others with no skin in the game are in this position.
b. Those who expect the 100k 1mn, Moon boys etc. PlanBs, and the Veles teens are preaching this position.
Both of them will be proved wrong and they will be surprised by the market. But, a clever thinker would ask, in which way will they be surprised? The market has its own unique ways to get everyone off guard. In order not to get caught I need to zoom out and see the broader picture.
Cycles 1, 2 and 3 have been uniformly convex with Inward curves. Most probably, Cycle 4 will stop this tradition and will be an upward curve. Are you surprised?
The reason why I say this is because 2023 is a US pre-election year. These pre-election years are the best performers of the 4 year Presidency and that means the SP500 at the end of the year will be significantly higher than 3830. Subsequently, BTC price will be exaggerated and at the end of the year we will be in a much higher position, but without a new All Time High (ATH) to invalidate the Moon boys. So let's suppose for the shake of the argument that BTC price at the end of 2023 will be around 43 to 46K.
2024 comes with an anchoring event for BTC which is called halving. It is scheduled to happen in April 24 and it should be followed by an ATH that should occur approximately in September 24. Do not take dates and prices to the bank. They are indicative but they have good possibilities to come true. So the 69k landmark should be achieved near September 2024.
My Axiom is talking about a top in mid to late October 2025. This will be a technical top, but could also coincide with an actual top. The target is somewhere between 65 and 80K. Moon boys will be caught off guard once again, expecting the millions and the Lambos.
Of course, all dates and price targets are subject to everyday action, and every trading day is adding more data to my analysis. This is what I understand right now based on all 5 disciplines that I follow and I reserve the right to change my opinion when new facts dictate differently.
And of course, do your own DD.
Few months ago you wrote that in this bull cycle, no ATM is expected. Assume the pic below is no longer valid?
- jpg.jpg (88.12 KiB) Viewed 450 times
-
