Arbusers

just wait for the US housing market and ES1 to correct which will line up with halving. lots of liquidity down at 13, maybe wick to 9 but don't need to catch the bottom. ES1 and NAS is at the top of the range rn, check the DXY also. its clear to see. :12 years trading. much love

So we have a new monthly candle print that provides a lot of information of what to expect. As I said several times, the bigger the time frame, the stronger message we receive from the markets.

But before speaking about the charts, I would like to comment a little bit about the broader state of play because I know the media will not tell you anything about it. If this post gets long, I will come back with my charts later on.

This month we had a very important meeting in San Francisco between Biden and Xi. If you are familiar with Thucydides and realism, you can easily understand what was at stake there. You might wonder what this has to do with BTC. It is not a coincidence that right after the meeting it was announced that Binance’s founder Changpeng Zhao, commonly known as CZ, pleaded guilty to criminal charges and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the DoJ.

Among other accusations, Binance is accused for sending money to Hamas, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. These are terror groups with an inherent hate for humanity and civilisation. CZ is not allowed to return to his home in the United Arab Emirates as he awaits sentencing.

You already know my position on CZ, as I negatively commented on him after the FTX collapse. I believe CZ will go to jail eventually and Binance will be punished hard. Αssociatively, you might think this will crash BTC’s price. I firmly believe this is not the case.

Binance is identified as one of the major actors supporting most of the altcoins (or should I say sh.tcoins?) you could imagine. Altcoins is a danger against the only real and authentic cryptocurrency, namely BTC.

Altcoins will be targeted by the US and other actors and in the end, most probably, they will cease to exist resulting to monumental loses for their owners. At this stage, I would like to stress that those investing in altcoins might have a serious gambling addiction they should take care of. I understand that some altcoins owners will make serious money, but the risk reward ratio is against them right now. This bet is asymmetrical and it is against them. This is the 4th BTC cycle, not the 3rd.

To be continued…

And of course, this is not a financial advise, do your own Due Diligence.

I wanted to comment some more in the current state of play. Several times I highlighted the narratives of the market, who are there simply to trick you and in the end make you lose opportunities and money.
The dominant narrative at this very time consists of 3 distinct horizons. Lets quickly visit them:
1. In the short term we have the Blackrock ETF (ARK and others too) coming up in the beginning of January. Backrock has a 175 out of 176 success rate when it comes to ETFs and market has every reason to believe this one will be a success too.
2. In the mid term we have the halving, an important event that works as an anchor for the cyclicality of the BTC price. However, this is just one event and not the only event that contributes to this cyclicality.
3. In the long term we have the 4 year theory of BTC cyclicality that calls for a top in December 2025, a scenario which is replayed again and again over the last BTC cycles.

The dominant narrative is front-running all these 3 horizons, and that makes me believe that it is not possible that all market participants exit this BTC cycle 4 that easy. Something different will happen.

Notice what I wrote in earlier in March, long before any click hunter could even determine if we are in a bull market or not:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 18, 2023 8:07 pm

I argue this Cycle Top will be in mid to late October of 2025. You read it firstly here in arbusers.com. It might create a self fulfilled prophecy as many entertainers in Youtube and Twitter will copy what I say in the months/years to come.

However, there is something these charlatans did not parrot so far. It is the following:

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 23, 2023 8:25 am

Cycles 1, 2 and 3 have been uniformly convex with Inward curves. Most probably, Cycle 4 will stop this tradition and will be an upward curve. Are you surprised?

Most probably they will parrot it very soon.


So what is my current position? I am still focusing on the end of the cycle. There is no data indicating this will not materialise. However, I remain vividly vigilant because the dominant narrative is closing to my position, and this might force me to jump out of the flock.

To be continued…

Do your own DD.

I promised to comment on the November’s monthly candle so here we are.
October’s candlestick indicated a continuation of the dominant trend, and November gave me exactly this. A continuation upwards.

However, November’s candle is shorter that October’s and that shows a slow down of the momentum. How can I interpret this under the microscope of classic T.A? Can I determine if there is any trap in-front of me? What is the market telling me?

To address these questions I use my loyal RSI, the indicator that has the power to strip price action from manipulations.

- The daily RSI has a negative divergence as stressed some days ago. That tells me a small correction could be underway. But…
- The weekly RSI looks very healthy and strong with no negative divergences. And…
- The monthly RSI looks very healthy and strong too, again with no negative divergences. (See chart below)

That tells me there is no manipulation in the BTC price and the thrust we see is genuine. The data that market gives me so far, is not supporting any justification to sell anything from my portfolio. I m good.


This chart gives me goosebumps. Look how gracefully price moves from my buying DCA box to my selling DCA box. Look how easily a minimal and thrifty analysis of just 2-3 lines beats any fancy and complicated stupidity we read and watch almost everywhere.
Less is more.

What to expect from now on?

There is a lot of market structure between 32K and 48K. Normally we could see price ranging between these 2 lines and that means that a visit of 48K is on the cards. I could then reassess the situation technically and see if there is any reason to sell anything. On the other hand, any ranging between 32K and 48K should be stomached easily with no stress.
As I mentioned many months ago, this 4th BTC cycle might be an upward curve and not an inward like all previous cycles. Reality shows I m right. This 4th cycle is not giving the chance to the ignorants to enter. They will pay a heavy price by FOMOing in after the 48K is done.

While I am wishing you a lovely Sunday, I repeat you should do your own due diligence. This is not a financial advise, I am not telling you what to do with your money. I m just telling what I do with my own.

Some people thing that 42000 is a resistance level and already today BTC retraced from 42k. What is your opinion on that?

Martina N wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 04, 2023 5:25 pm

Some people thing that 42000 is a resistance level and already today BTC retraced from 42k. What is your opinion on that?

Go ask these people. Let's see how they justify 42K as a resistance level.

Now, I will comment on the 42K price, but this has nothing to do with support/resistance levels.
BTC has the tendency of nearing its fair price during the halving for a number of reasons. Of course, a fair price for BTC is something fluid and you can't determine it with accuracy.
But if we take into accounts the prices of BTC during previous halving days, and if we add a good margin of error, then we can understand what the fair price of BTC will be in the next halvings.
Like the tops, we only have 3 distinct halving dates to put on a logarithmic scale and this adds a lot of uncertainty. On the contrary, we have 1000s of dates to fill the bottoms and that is why it is much easier to name the bottoms than naming the tops.
That said, with a lot of uncertainty, I could say that the fair BTC price for the end of April 2024 when the next halving takes place will be around 42K plus or minus some Ks as a margin of error.
That means that today's fair price is lower than that. It should be around 40K just where the price swings today. Don't take that to the bank of course.

Does it make any sense to spend millions of hours to make money from arbing and value betting when you can make x10 times more just by sitting back, relaxing and enjoying the flight with Bitcoin?

neopas wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 05, 2023 1:38 pm

Does it make any sense to spend millions of hours to make money from arbing and value betting when you can make x10 times more just by sitting back, relaxing and enjoying the flight with Bitcoin?

It makes sence because you by doing that can buy more Bitcoin.

Thanks for sharing your analysis and making the journey not only profitable but educating as well.

A few questions about the path of a broader destination.

In previous posts it was stated of BTC surviving longer and greater than all historic bubbles to the point that it could be escaping the pull from such a sphere.

I believe in the scarcity of an asset as a proxy of its value. I was trained to that from a young age trading limited edition cards. The rarer the card the more its exchange value either compared to the other cards or fiat money.

BTC is a first edition limited edition card whose value so far growing over time both in terms of other cards (alts) and fiat.

1. Since BTC has a use case and a value deriving from it, how does it end up? The card games I used to play 20 years ago are still alive and the limited cards worth now 10-20 times their value back then.
2. What are the ROI targets for Institutional investors (MicroStrategy for example with an average cost in the 30s)? Can they and other big players be in the game for only a 3-5x return in the long run?
3. You stressed attention on those who gamble on alts. ETH last cycle was a vehicle to maximize returns. Why not now? Why the structure of the 4th cycle is not helping for a similar strategy?
4. Thinking reversely should it be assumed that an ETF will not be approved? If approved is the inflow of money not enough to keep the steam going for a while?

I appreciate your input @arbusers and any thoughts on the matter from members of this discussion.

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:24 am

1. Since BTC has a use case and a value deriving from it, how does it end up? The card games I used to play 20 years ago are still alive and the limited cards worth now 10-20 times their value back then.
2. What are the ROI targets for Institutional investors (MicroStrategy for example with an average cost in the 30s)? Can they and other big players be in the game for only a 3-5x return in the long run?
3. You stressed attention on those who gamble on alts. ETH last cycle was a vehicle to maximize returns. Why not now? Why the structure of the 4th cycle is not helping for a similar strategy?
4. Thinking reversely should it be assumed that an ETF will not be approved? If approved is the inflow of money not enough to keep the steam going for a while?

1. I believe there will be a day where the BTC price is almost flat with very small fluctuations. It is ridiculous and obscene the way governments are using inflation to steal from people who produce. Read the following and see how it fits to any, I mean ANY country in the world:
''The least able to survive elected the least able to rule in order to loot the wealth of a dwindling number of people who are still producing''.
This can't go on for ever. There will be a time the ''dwindling'' people realise how to protect themselves.

2. Yes, I m sure they have a rolling ROI target, this is fluid. They would never reveal that I m sure.

3. A similar strategy could very well work too. However the risk reward ratio is not favouring anything outside BTC right now. How comfortable would you be trusting your financial future to someone that dresses like this?


Mimicking an 80s legend is not encouraging.

4. The ETF will be approved. This time is not different, we will see thousands or frantic scenarios who will try to alter reality. In the end, there will be a top and millions of people carrying the bags of a handful smarter investors.

I would like to supplement with the following picture

Under what circumstances you would sell part of your BTC portfolio at 48K, and what is the % of your portfolio you would sell.
Very grateful for this thread. A goldmine.

crowned wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:29 pm

Under what circumstances you would sell part of your BTC portfolio at 48K, and what is the % of your portfolio you would sell.
Very grateful for this thread. A goldmine.

For every action I take, no matter if it is a buy or a sell, I need confluence generated by my metrics and the important technical indicators. My loyal RSI is one of them but not the only one. For this BTC cycle, and if we are talking about the 48K level, I will not take into account of the daily RSI, because it is very easy to be tricked. I will be advised by the weekly RSI. Currently it stands on very overbought levels, but these levels are healthy because no negative divergences are observed. In addition, the long term metrics that I follow, do not show any hint of a major top.
If I find my self in-front of a dilemma, I will always prefer to keep my position intact because there are a lot of indicators that traditionally produces confluence at the end of the cycle.
I know it is not a clear answer, but there is no formulaic approach.

What would you say to someone who didn't buy BTC yet? Is it time to buy BTC now?
And what is your opinion on Solana? Raoul Pal and others are very bullish for Solana.

Martina N wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 14, 2023 10:55 am

What would you say to someone who didn't buy BTC yet? Is it time to buy BTC now?
And what is your opinion on Solana? Raoul Pal and others are very bullish for Solana.

youtube and twitter bulls atract people the most . And those who are bulls get the most atention

My 2 cents on bitcoin dominance. If we will have simillar cycle also this time for BTC, than altcoins will still bleed into Bitcoin for some time.

My main matric in crypto is Bitcoin dominance.
Remember that real altseason were only 4-8 month lonh every few years. Altcoins just bleed into Bitcoin long term