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Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

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arbusers
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:43 am

Martina N wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2023 10:55 am
What would you say to someone who didn't buy BTC yet? Is it time to buy BTC now?

I am not his/her financial advisor, so there is nothing I could say, other than ''read the forum''.

Martina N wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2023 10:55 am
And what is your opinion on Solana? Raoul Pal and others are very bullish for Solana.

Looks like a pump and dump operation. What is the record of people investing in Solana really?

crypto data wrote: My 2 cents on bitcoin dominance. If we will have simillar cycle also this time for BTC, than altcoins will still bleed into Bitcoin for some time.

My main matric in crypto is Bitcoin dominance.
Remember that real altseason were only 4-8 month lonh every few years. Altcoins just bleed into Bitcoin long term

Over the years, I found out that people could end up in the same results even if they use different disciplines.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:58 pm

Martina N wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2023 10:55 am
What would you say to someone who didn't buy BTC yet? Is it time to buy BTC now?
And what is your opinion on Solana? Raoul Pal and others are very bullish for Solana.
There are 2 big use cases of blockchain technology in my opinion, one is store of value(ultimately money), second is high throughput programmable blockchain.

Bitcoin does not support complex smart contracts as it is now, maybe sometime in the future but we do not know for sure. So bitcoin as it is now is trying to become a store of value and ultimately money.

All other serious L1 altcoins are basically fighting for the same thing which is the biggest smart contracts platform.
So basically all people who compare Bitcoin to Ethereum or Solana just do not understand this space enough.

From all other blockchains till now Ethereum and Solana have the most probability to become the dominant smart contracts platform of the future. My bet is that as long as Ethereum does not make an update to have higher throughput and lower fees Solana will gain market share in the space of smart contracts platforms and outperform Ether this cycle.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

Wolfie wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:58 pm

There are 2 big use cases of blockchain technology in my opinion, one is store of value(ultimately money), second is high throughput programmable blockchain.

Bitcoin does not support complex smart contracts as it is now, maybe sometime in the future but we do not know for sure. So bitcoin as it is now is trying to become a store of value and ultimately money.

All other serious L1 altcoins are basically fighting for the same thing which is the biggest smart contracts platform.
So basically all people who compare Bitcoin to Ethereum or Solana just do not understand this space enough.

From all other blockchains till now Ethereum and Solana have the most probability to become the dominant smart contracts platform of the future. My bet is that as long as Ethereum does not make an update to have higher throughput and lower fees Solana will gain market share in the space of smart contracts platforms and outperform Ether this cycle.
In my opinion bitcoin or any other crypto is not a good store of value. It is too volatile, nobody knows if your money is going up or down tomorrow. I think it is only useful for speculation, i.e., buying low and selling high, profiting from those who are less informed than you are.

I agree with high throughput programmable blockchain though. It can be useful somewhere in the future.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 20, 2023 3:50 pm

mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

In my opinion bitcoin or any other crypto is not a good store of value. It is too volatile, nobody knows if your money is going up or down tomorrow. I think it is only useful for speculation, i.e., buying low and selling high, profiting from those who are less informed than you are.

I agree with high throughput programmable blockchain though. It can be useful somewhere in the future.
send me tip, which asset is going up tomorrow (24h), thanks, i will check it, if you was right
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 20, 2023 8:49 pm

nahcarts wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 3:50 pm
mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

In my opinion bitcoin or any other crypto is not a good store of value. It is too volatile, nobody knows if your money is going up or down tomorrow. I think it is only useful for speculation, i.e., buying low and selling high, profiting from those who are less informed than you are.

I agree with high throughput programmable blockchain though. It can be useful somewhere in the future.
send me tip, which asset is going up tomorrow (24h), thanks, i will check it, if you was right
We are not talking about predictions here, we are talking about store of value. "A store of value is essentially an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without deteriorating in value. In other words, to enter this category, the item acquired should, over time, either be worth the same or more". Like I said bitcoin is not good for that because of its volatility. It is good for speculation though.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu Dec 21, 2023 6:34 am

mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm
Wolfie wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:58 pm

There are 2 big use cases of blockchain technology in my opinion, one is store of value(ultimately money), second is high throughput programmable blockchain.

Bitcoin does not support complex smart contracts as it is now, maybe sometime in the future but we do not know for sure. So bitcoin as it is now is trying to become a store of value and ultimately money.

All other serious L1 altcoins are basically fighting for the same thing which is the biggest smart contracts platform.
So basically all people who compare Bitcoin to Ethereum or Solana just do not understand this space enough.

From all other blockchains till now Ethereum and Solana have the most probability to become the dominant smart contracts platform of the future. My bet is that as long as Ethereum does not make an update to have higher throughput and lower fees Solana will gain market share in the space of smart contracts platforms and outperform Ether this cycle.
In my opinion bitcoin or any other crypto is not a good store of value. It is too volatile, nobody knows if your money is going up or down tomorrow. I think it is only useful for speculation, i.e., buying low and selling high, profiting from those who are less informed than you are.

I agree with high throughput programmable blockchain though. It can be useful somewhere in the future.
bitcoin is not volatile.

bitcoin is not made for complex smart contracts because it's designed to be a robust system. when you focus on complex smart contracts, you can't do that. so you have to choose.

ethereum is dying. it may be flipped or challenged by solana soon.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu Dec 21, 2023 7:43 pm

guys be careful and get ready for super discount opportunity. btc dominance fell a alot.
it usually is a sign of coming crash. can be 25 dec or 10-15 jan but be careful to take advantage of dumps. good luck!

btc will reach 130-180k in 2025, stack accordingly!
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Dec 22, 2023 8:26 am

Sonny wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2023 7:43 pm
btc will reach 130-180k in 2025, stack accordingly!

How would you back this statement?
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Dec 22, 2023 2:07 pm

Capo Crypto came back today, sees new lows ahead. Prepare for a lift off.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Dec 22, 2023 5:32 pm

One old guy said last year ….
“I wouldn’t pay $25 for all the bitcoin in the world”
:)
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:44 pm

mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

In my opinion bitcoin is not a good store of value.
Tell that to the people who lost their bitcoin keys 10 years ago.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:38 pm

Wolfie wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:44 pm
mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

In my opinion bitcoin is not a good store of value.
Tell that to the people who lost their bitcoin keys 10 years ago.
account safety is just part of the equation, another part is price stability
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:31 am

mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:38 pm
Wolfie wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:44 pm
mrJustice wrote:
Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:03 pm

In my opinion bitcoin is not a good store of value.
Tell that to the people who lost their bitcoin keys 10 years ago.
account safety is just part of the equation, another part is price stability
No, what i mean is that after 10 years it is so good store of value that people who had wallets with as little as to forget their keys now wish they find those keys because its an unusually good store of value.
Volatility will go away after a market cap milestone. You think gold did not have big volatility in its history ?
mrJustice wrote:
We are not talking about predictions here, we are talking about store of value. "A store of value is essentially an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without deteriorating in value. In other words, to enter this category, the item acquired should, over time, either be worth the same or more". Like I said bitcoin is not good for that because of its volatility. It is good for speculation though.
Tell me an asset that its all the time more or the same price than it was as you mention and i will go all in max leverage. This asset does not exist.
Returning to existing assets, a perfect store of value is an asset that goes up in long timeframes, does not belong to a single entity or country, can be traded internationally and is equal or beats inflation over time by price appreciation. Practically bitcoin. Extra bonus, you can store it in your brain.

If ETF is approved, after some years huge volatility will disappear and at the same time it will be confirmed as a store of value, meaning central banks will hold large amounts of it, just like gold.

Investing is more about time than it is about price. Volatility is good. It means we are still early.
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:15 pm

Wolfie wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:31 am

No, what i mean is that after 10 years it is so good store of value that people who had wallets with as little as to forget their keys now wish they find those keys because its an unusually good store of value.
Volatility will go away after a market cap milestone. You think gold did not have big volatility in its history ?
mrJustice wrote:
We are not talking about predictions here, we are talking about store of value. "A store of value is essentially an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without deteriorating in value. In other words, to enter this category, the item acquired should, over time, either be worth the same or more". Like I said bitcoin is not good for that because of its volatility. It is good for speculation though.
Tell me an asset that its all the time more or the same price than it was as you mention and i will go all in max leverage. This asset does not exist.
Returning to existing assets, a perfect store of value is an asset that goes up in long timeframes, does not belong to a single entity or country, can be traded internationally and is equal or beats inflation over time by price appreciation. Practically bitcoin. Extra bonus, you can store it in your brain.

If ETF is approved, after some years huge volatility will disappear and at the same time it will be confirmed as a store of value, meaning central banks will hold large amounts of it, just like gold.

Investing is more about time than it is about price. Volatility is good. It means we are still early.
Your judgment is biased due to a current price of btc. After a couple years the whole situation may be completely different. I don't have a crystal ball and neither have you. Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen but what we do know is that the price of btc was extremely volatile at times, from 64k to 16k in just one year... that is a fact. A good store of value means that if I were to put my money into the asset I should have a good confidence that it won't lose purchasing power after a couple of years and you just can't have that confidence with btc no matter what religious followers say. ETF or no ETF, so many other things can go right or wrong. Thinking that central banks will buy btc is just wishful/naive, nothing supports that claim. Nobody can predict future, period. If btc lasts for many more years and the volatility goes away then yes, we can say that it has become a good store of value. Until it happens it is nothing but a high risk/high reward speculative asset class.

Volatility is not good - it doesn't mean that it is still early it simply means that you risk to lose a lot of money ;D

You should be careful because even Arbusers does not intend to hold btc for long and is waiting for the top of the cycle to sell it to religious/naive people. He is a smart guy. So it is very risky to think that btc is a good store of value, you risk to become exit liquidity to smart people like Arbusers.

And as for the "asset that its all the time more or the same price", that's easy - inflation protected bonds. So you can go all in max leverage now. Don't thank me ;)
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Re: Bitcoin analysis and investing strategy

Fri Dec 29, 2023 12:20 am

Volatility is not good - it doesn't mean that it is still early it simply means that you risk to lose a lot of money
This is relative.. Volatility against USD? How much is the current purchasing power of USD comparing with say a decade ago (not to mention decades ago) ?

You should be careful because even Arbusers does not intend to hold btc for long and is waiting for the top of the cycle to sell it
Sure , you should never "marry" any asset , however as much as you sell just keep at least 1 BTC in a cold secured wallet

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