Arbusers

Sun Apr 23, 2023 10:25 am viewtopic.php?p=93879#p93879

BTC price at the end of 2023 will be around 43 to 46K.

The end of every year comes with a lot of new data for the charts that helps me navigate the future. The market is speaking and I have to listen very carefully. Those of you who read this thread from the very start, know very well that bigger time frames offer more clarity because they strip markets to a large extend from maniputalion. Thus, today I will comment on the annual time frame.


What do I see here?

1. I see 2023 being a full body fat candle with no wicks up or down. It is clear to me, this is a continuation candle. These full fat candles are followed by same colour candles. Of course, nothing is certain in T.A but most probably 2024 will also be a green year.

2. I see that 2023 is not an engulfing candle that would indicate an explosive move ahead, and that invalidates the moon boys who keep talking about price targets of millions. BTC cycle 4 will be a modest one within the price targets I already spoke about in this thread. No, it is not raining Lambos.

3. The bodies of the 2021 and 2022 candles created a resistance line in the vicinity of 47-48K that will be proved hard to knock in the future. We are already almost there and I expect the trend to take a break before moving further North. Because of this, I believe 2024 might be a candle with some wicks.

Taking all these under consideration, I understand that I m perfectly positioned in the market and my initial plan has no need for any modification. So far, it is a waiting game.

This is not an investment advise and I am not telling you what to do with your money. I m simply describing what I do with my own hard earned funds. Do your own Due Diligence.

@arbusers

Happy new year and thanks for the update.

Given that we have referred to the RSI as a useful weapon should't this be of immediate concern (without questioning the general trend for 2024)?

Of course. Nice observation.
This is a negative RSI divergence indicating that lower prices are ahead.
But really, who cares? I am positioned below 20K and these ups and downs in prices are simply every day's noise.

mrJustice wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:15 pm

Your judgment is biased due to a current price of btc. After a couple years the whole situation may be completely different. I don't have a crystal ball and neither have you. Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen but what we do know is that the price of btc was extremely volatile at times, from 64k to 16k in just one year... that is a fact. A good store of value means that if I were to put my money into the asset I should have a good confidence that it won't lose purchasing power after a couple of years and you just can't have that confidence with btc no matter what religious followers say. ETF or no ETF, so many other things can go right or wrong. Thinking that central banks will buy btc is just wishful/naive, nothing supports that claim. Nobody can predict future, period. If btc lasts for many more years and the volatility goes away then yes, we can say that it has become a good store of value. Until it happens it is nothing but a high risk/high reward speculative asset class.

Volatility is not good - it doesn't mean that it is still early it simply means that you risk to lose a lot of money

You should be careful because even Arbusers does not intend to hold btc for long and is waiting for the top of the cycle to sell it to religious/naive people. He is a smart guy. So it is very risky to think that btc is a good store of value, you risk to become exit liquidity to smart people like Arbusers.

And as for the "asset that its all the time more or the same price", that's easy - inflation protected bonds. So you can go all in max leverage now. Don't thank me

I never mentioned that you should use it as a store of value, but many people who are not good at investing do and i think they are right since its their only way of profiting from this.
Better use it as an investing vehicle.
So volatility is good, it will go down a lot and you can lose money as you mention, but it will go up a lot too and you can make a lot of money as i mention. So where you see loses i see an opportunity.
The investment thesis including the arbusers one only works if this asset is here to stay and become the store of value mentioned, otherwise if its not in that direction i would not risk to play the cycles because maybe it dies now and not 4 years later.
All of us are making predictions including you, who think it will go up when you invest. Investing is predicting. My prediction is that bitcoin is here to stay.

There is a possibility that BTC forms an ending diagonal formation as I see in the following daily graph. It is not clear yet, but in times of uncertainty formations are not clear. A text book ending diagonal would come with a quick break out of the triangle at the 46-48K range where a strong resistance lies as described in previous posts. If that happens in the next 2-3 days, I will be very much tempted to sell part of my portfolio, only to buy it back at a later stage.
This formation is accompanied by a negative RSI divergence on the daily time frame, and it coincides with the 10th of January the date we expect an announcement for the ARK ETF. A ''sell the news'' event might be on its way no matter if the news are positive or negative. Notice, that ARK's management has a joint (Musk, Dorsey, Wood) pump and dump past in BTC.
If this scenario is validated the typical short term price target will be 38K.


In addition, a small negative RSI divergence is just starting to be visible on the weekly time frame after yesterday's candle printing as I can see in the following graph, and that raises concerns. Of course, the long term outlook of the market remains bullish and the cycle process remains intact. Let's see how it plays out.


Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

This is to inform you that I just sold 20% of my BTC portfolio in accordance to the post I made earlier today at $47.000. Of course, I am not telling you what to do with your money, I am simply describing what I do with my own money and the money under my management.

The reason why I sold this part of my portfolio is strictly dictated by Technical Analysis. This is risk management. There is nothing wrong taking some profits to the bank. Of course I could be wrong, but even if I am wrong I will happily sell a bigger part of my portfolio at a higher price. These are nice problems.

Now this hot cash remains ready to be redeployed in BTC if the market moves according to my plan. The ending diagonal formation indicates that a price of $38.000 is in the cards and could be achieved within the next couple of months. Hopefully, the RSI divergences will take a breath to come back to more sustainable levels.

I will be here to comment some more as price travels.

And as always, not a financial advise, do your own due diligence.

Thank you very much for your efforts and your dedication mate

I agree.

Every update is much appriciated and read carefully - thanks a lot!

With Nearly 40% up since the post from Wed Nov 01, 2023 3:48 pm . I followed the same path with you and yesterday I cashed my profit too.

Appreciate your effort and knowledge @Arbusers

Much appreciation for all you do in this thread and above all else your transparency
Many thanks mate!

Followed your lead @arbusers. Thank you for your efforts!

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:59 am

If this scenario is validated the typical short term price target will be 38K.

Is this target still in play?

Kreon wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:51 am

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:59 am

If this scenario is validated the typical short term price target will be 38K.

Is this target still in play?

The 38K is a typical target for an ending diagonal formation. However, like all the other times, I need confluence in my decision making process. I will take into account any other data the market gives me. It is premature but I am presenting January's candlestick. As you guessed, it is a textbook gravestone Doji and if it stays like this until the end of the month it will be very ugly.


This candlestick will be just one out of many criteria that I will examine when the time comes. It is so ugly as we speak that makes me think that 38K is not enough. Maybe it needs to go even lower at the 35-36K vicinity. BTC needs a pause for a month or so, to regroup and bring key indicators down to viable levels before heading North again.

Not a financial advise. Do your own DD.

Last night we had the printing of the January candlestick. Those who read this thread closely know that bigger timeframes, compared to smaller time frames, present a clearer picture of the state of the market. Thus, a monthly candlestick should not be taken lightly.

So, we have a text book long legged Doji candle with a very thin body and 2 very long shadows as you can see in the following graph. This kind of Dojis indicate an indecision that comes from a thug of war between sellers and buyers.


How do I interpret this Doji? Who is winning, the buyers or the sellers? In my view this is a battle that was won by sellers. Why do I say this?
1. The upper shadow is longer than the lower shadow. This shows that sellers came in with a bigger momentum than buyers.
2. Many months ago, I highlighted the 48K resistance level raising from classic T.A and it was proved to be correct. It was accompanied by a negative RSI divergence and its full potential is not yet displayed, if we take into accounts the low volumes of the days.
3. The propaganda machine worked in full speed. Every second CNBC video was for Bitcoin. Cheerleaders like Raoul Pal, and Cathie Wood came to a climax. Wood especially, whose newly born ETF came out, spoke about a 7 digit Bitcoin price. I wonder, if she believes the 7 digit price target, why is she bothering with Teslas and Roblox’s. After all, who cares about 1-2 digits, they only change prices X10s or X100s. These are peanuts for Cathie.

What do I expect from now on?
At this stage I select EWT as my best tool. Since we are in a bull market, any correction should have an ABC style. The A wave has a length of 10500 and the B wave, if completed, retraced back to the 50% of the original move. If wave B stays like this and doesn’t go to the 61.8%, it will eliminate the case for a flat correction. That means there is a big possibility that C wave will be equal to the A wave bringing price at approximately $33300, or 0.618 of Wave A bringing price at approximately $37300. Theory says that the vast majority of C waves are equal to A waves, and that makes 33300 as my primary target at this stage.


Of course it would be wrong to interpret waves to the t, but it would be better to have these figures in mind. The candles that we lately see have very long shadows up and down and that means that if we see these prices they will not be long lived. Today, my target for re-accumulating the Bitcoin I sold would be anywhere between 34 and 38K. This will be decided after taking into account other factors, like the market sentiment and T.A.

I could always be wrong, and I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement. Do your own Due Diligence, this is not a financial advice.