Arbusers

Martina N wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:55 am

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:19 pm

You could watch closely the cheerleaders and then do the opposite of what they say.

Name the cheerleaders.

That would be a great mistake. Some of these people have an army of lawyers, and frankly I have no time for this. One of the best Churchill's quotes is the following:

''You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.''

But I m sure you can quickly identify them.

@arbusers,

It might be premature to inquire before the monthly close, but I'm curious about the current situation. From a short-term perspective, the price appears resilient, diverging from typical cycle patterns by sustaining its upward momentum without a significant "mid top" correction.

Is there an impending "mid top," or has the recent modest correction from 49K to 39K already fulfilled that role?

Considering we're approximately 20% away from an all-time high, with no glaring bearish signals evident and over 500 days until the technical top, what lies ahead?

In a separate discussion, you mentioned comparing potential ROI, highlighting that BTC might offer an X8 performance in this cycle, while Biogen might provide an X10 return. Are these figures merely illustrative, or should we also consider a 15500*8= 120K new ATH?

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:52 pm

It might be premature to inquire before the monthly close, but I'm curious about the current situation. From a short-term perspective, the price appears resilient, diverging from typical cycle patterns by sustaining its upward momentum without a significant "mid top" correction.

Is there an impending "mid top," or has the recent modest correction from 49K to 39K already fulfilled that role?

Considering we're approximately 20% away from an all-time high, with no glaring bearish signals evident and over 500 days until the technical top, what lies ahead?

In a separate discussion, you mentioned comparing potential ROI, highlighting that BTC might offer an X8 performance in this cycle, while Biogen might provide an X10 return. Are these figures merely illustrative, or should we also consider a 15500*8= 120K new ATH?

Let's wait for the monthly close which is just some days ahead to draw conclusions.

There is no gospel talking about a mid top in BTC or anywhere else. Some of the indicators indicate we might be near one.

The word ''might'' indicates a possibility or a probability. Don't hook your self from one word while disregarding the other thousands words I used to describe my thinking process. Don't take figures to the bank. The only figures that I take to the bank are those announced when I buy or sell something.

my bitcoin strategy is simple.
doing nothing
holding and enjoying life.

if i have to make a prediction,
I believe bitcoin is headed for 69-71k zone. you may say there's a huge sell wall there, no. there's a big liquidty there. bitcoin will pick that liquidity, start the fomo, put market on fire then retrace back to 50-55, reason? some traders will take profits. then bull run will resume. however, we need a slow boring accumulation phase. expect a correction in may. probably after ethereum etf rejected. june should be bearish. we'll see. i'm not selling any bitcoin.

btw, bitcoin is not an investment guys. bitcoin is exit from fiat system.
selling bitcoin for usd is like selling usd for argentina peso.
don't sell winners to buy losers.
just hodl.
of course it doesnt hurt to spend your sats to buy some things in order to enhance your life quality.

I don't subscribe under the hold for ever theory.

These are interesting times. I have so many things I must post here that it will take me days.

I think I will start posting some things now, even before the month is out.

Very quickly.

1. There is no negative divergence in the RSI any more, both in weekly and daily time frames. Price action is executing what was unthinkable some days ago.
2. All resistances created by classic T.A are cut like the knife cuts the butter.
3. All fibo levels created by EWT are too cut like the knife cuts the butter (not shown in the chart below).


As I monotonically repeat in this thread, I reserve the right to change my opinion at any point in time when the charts dictate me to do so according to my knowledge and judgement. It seems to me that we are nearing a point that I will have to change my view on the market and adopt a different scenario that the one I currently follow.

However, as I said before, these are happy problems. Price action is destroying my scenario for the market in a pleasant way. But for sure I find my self at a point where I need to change my management and the reading of the market.

And of course, do your own Due Diligence.

We just had February’s 2024 candlestick printing. It was the 2nd biggest monthly candle in Bitcoin’s history. And it was a green one. The biggest monthly candle is still a red one, that of May’s 2021.

For me, this candle brought massive gains and at the same time maximum uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, it became much harder to interpret the signals that market sends me. The overall scenario I have in my mind is seriously questioned, and there is a strong possibility that it will be rejected by price action, and subsequently replaced by a new one.

The scenario I am following can be summarised in the following graph, where you can see my accumulation zone and my selling targets currently designated for October 2025. The selling targets were set in March 2023, and unfortunately they were then adopted by TikTokers and Youtubers, who made them the dominant narrative in the crypto-sphere. Since the dominant narrative is always wrong, my scenario may be burnt due to its popularity.


At this stage in time, we are witnessing forceful buying powers who are pushing the BTC price upwards. If 69K is reached in the coming days/weeks, my scenario will be completely burnt. However, these will be happy problems if I managed to sell to even higher prices.

This price pressure upwards is striking many similarities with the period of January/Febryary 2021. To refresh your memory, that was the period when rumours were spread about Elon Musk buying BTC. The frenzy was spread to meme investors who massively came in the market and became the blood givers of the system. Today, if we replace Elon Musk with the acronym ETF we have exactly the same situation, only this time the frenzy is in the Wall Street and not the retail investor. That gives me hope, and I will explain why shortly.

But before explaining, let me answer to a very important question. ‘’Have we seen the market top?’’

In my opinion we haven’t seen it. The characteristics of a market top are not there yet. What are these characteristics?
1. Massive negative RSI divergences on the weekly, or the monthly. There are no negative divergences.
2. Volumes that would imply the smart money selling to the dump money. Not there yet too.
3. The propaganda campaigns from the usual suspects who were ‘’holding irresponsibly’’ in the last cycle and now asking us not to ‘’f@ck up this time’’. CNBC is relatively quiet.
4. The usual phone calls from the grannies, the surf instructors, personal trainers, people that never called for a decade, etc. The dump money is not in.

In the likely event that we have a new ATH in the next days/weeks, I will look for these characteristics in the weekly and monthly timeframes, before selling my cryptos to the ignorant.

In addition. It is my firm belief that price action is not the result of ETFs only. In the past we have seen similar inflows not resulting to the same price action. Thus, I believe that we have a lot of additional not documented inflows from China, who lost the first round of the undeclared war. This is the first time in modern history that China suffers massive capital outflow. When China strikes back, and be sure that she will, let's hope this will not affect Bitcoin negatively.

Lastly. If we believe Stanley Druckenmiller, the very smart money is able to see 18 months in advance. If this market cycle peaks in Q4 2025, the very smart money will prefer selling its bugs long before this is obvious to the dump money. Thus, a top within 2024 is now on the cards, and that includes Bitcoin, and the Stock markets, leaving the real estate alone for the rear guard fight in 2025 and beyond.

And of course…
Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

Well, I don't believe ''selling'' bitcoin for ''fiat'' is a good idea. those 4-year cycles may change. I don't like to try to time the market. Time in the market beats timing the market, always.

Better never sell stronger currency into a weaker currency.

Selling Bitcoin for USD is like,

Selling Dollar for Argentina pesos.
What is right time to sell USD if you're living in argentina? Probably, never.

Of course, you won't eat your bitcoin or you won't live inside your bitcoin, It's never wrong to spend some. To go a world tour or buy a new house. Make sure you save, keep SOME Spend some, save some.

According to computuer model I developped, there should be a correction around 9-10 march. CAREFUL. (may differ 1-2 days)
Always have some cash in corner so you can enjoy crashes, i mean discounts.

Let's work hard, arb more so we can accumulate, buy more cheap bitcoin
bitcoin will be priced 500,000 USD, 1 Million someday and people will say I WISH I HAD BOUGHT MORE BITCOIN WHEN IT WA 65k

there should be a correction around 9-10 may which will take us to back to 50's..maybe even 40's..why not?

Thank you for your analysis and writeups, always interested on those. makes sense to consider october25 top theory. everybody expect that time. maybe it happens earlier this time like spring 2025? we'll see.

It is important not be carried away by narratives and dreams.
Over the years I ve met some very wealthy people, and I can say for sure that none of them is counting wealth in BTC. The majority use USD to denominate, only a small number use EUR.
The hold for ever narrative serves the interests of those who buy low to sell high. And these are the people who take the most out of every opportunity.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:59 pm

Over the years I ve met some very wealthy people, and I can say for sure that none of them is counting wealth in BTC. The majority use USD to denominate, only a small number use EUR.

that's why we're still early

bitcoin can become global reserve currency.
think ahead.

bitcoin is the exit strategy
exit from fiat system

current financial system is a ponzi scheme. it's not sustainable. they will print dollars to pay debt.
money is created off thin air.
bitcoin requires proof of work.
bitcoin is the red pill.
study bitcoin, my friends.

for resources, check out ANDREAS ANTONOPOULOS' videos.

When it comes to investing imho , there are two fundamental problems to deal with
1) when to buy (get in a position)
2) When to sell (get out of a position)

All actions in the middle…. TA,indicators,fundamentals,social trends , influencers , google traffic , inflation rates, patterns , intuition, crystal balls , astrology …you name it…it’s just noise …
Difficult part is to find from all that noise the useful means to help you set target 1 and target 2 …
Now some BTC maximalists say that BTC is the future and eventually value will be counted in BTC (not in USD or EUR) in the mean time our mortal lifes are passing and our daily expenses (for the foreseeable future) are in fiat terms…
Greetings

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:14 pm

When it comes to investing imho , there are two fundamental problems to deal with
1) when to buy (get in a position)
2) When to sell (get out of a position)

How do you solve these problems?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:29 pm

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:14 pm

When it comes to investing imho , there are two fundamental problems to deal with
1) when to buy (get in a position)
2) When to sell (get out of a position)

How do you solve these problems?

If that wasn’t obvious from my previous reply.. I say it again:
I don’t have this answer mate!
How can you control human psychology?
what is the meaning of life?
and what was the start of the universe?
and what was before that, and why it was even started in the first place...?
Can someone answer? I guess not!
I am sure you got my point..

cortomaltese wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:56 pm

If that wasn’t obvious from my previous reply.. I say it again:
I don’t have this answer mate!

If you dont have an answer, I can only assume that you do not participate in any market.

To tell you the truth my original post was going to @ Sonny
and his romantic views about BTC