Arbusers

You shared with us your views and the strategy that surely needed a lot of thought and study. Your strategy, as it turned out, was more than successful.
Thanks for everything!!!

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:20 pm

Besides what my technical indicators and metrics are showing, there is another important fact we all need to take into account. It is the will of the liquidity provider not to allow crypto markets to crash further. As previously said, this is a puritanical high priesthood, reverent within its own atheism. These are people far more important in the crypto markets than people who simply invest or speculate.

The liquidity provider made billions of $ during this last cycle and will most probably want to repeat cycles again and again, as they are their cash cow machine. That said, I believe with strong certainty that June the 18th is the actual bottom and I managed to take advantage of it to a large extend.

You sound confident this is the bottom and I hope you are right! I myself bought more altcoins near the bottom as well (DOT at $6.5) would be really amazing to catch the near bottom for the first time.

But... quoting the above part, I am wondering why in a previous analysis, you forecast a further crash towards 3-4k area? This is contradictory to the fundamentals, mainly how miners are getting paid, and the next halving in 2024.

You used Elliott Waves, I respect your work but personally hate EW analysis.

One thing I deeply agree with is that the top was supposed to be in April 2021 at 64k, the Pi Cycle top indicator flashed there, then the following pump to 69k in October was very strange and didn't make sense, other than liquidate some mug traders using leverage? I guess so...

@junoreactor, do not take words out of context.
This thread is 99% for getting a bear market cycle bottom where I made very much clear that i committed funds.
By focusing on an analysis that goes further deep into the future, when you have an analysis for today, it is like paying attention to the tree and losing the forest.
Your post is once again showing why I should not share this kind of analysis openly. Some of you guys are indeed something else.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:20 pm

It is now time that I update you guys about the current state of play.

First, let’s recap what I have done so far. I simply bought the 100% of our desired positions within the time period of 16 to 20th of June. That includes the bottom of the market of June the 18th, as anticipated previously. There is a big possibility that I bought the absolute bottom of the market.

I have a very strong certainty that June the 18th is the actual bottom of this bear market. Of course, we can never be sure and we should never be deterministic, but all technical indicators and metrics that I follow and invented, are signalling the date of 18th of June as the bottom of the bear market. Time will show.

I also identified another time period as an alternative bottom to the market, that thankfully did not materialise. Have a look at my graph, it shows the period that I bought, plus the 2nd bottom some days ago.


BTC bottom.png


Besides what my technical indicators and metrics are showing, there is another important fact we all need to take into account. It is the will of the liquidity provider not to allow crypto markets to crash further. As previously said, this is a puritanical high priesthood, reverent within its own atheism. These are people far more important in the crypto markets than people who simply invest or speculate.

The liquidity provider made billions of $ during this last cycle and will most probably want to repeat cycles again and again, as they are their cash cow machine. That said, I believe with strong certainty that June the 18th is the actual bottom and I managed to take advantage of it to a large extend.

That was my first crypto macro bottom, and I gained valuable experiences from it.

Awesome work mate! Can't thank you enough for sharing this!

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu May 26, 2022 9:09 am

I would like to speak about the ETHBTC analogy that helped me a lot in the previous bull run to maximise profits, by simply jumping from BTC to ETH and vice versa when one of these two bubbles became over inflated.

First of all, I too am much grateful for your analyses. It has been much appreciated. A big thanks!

So, with ETH bought in the accumulation zone, I am wondering if these will be overvalued over BTC in the short term. What are your (and other's) thoughts? Are there arguments for ATH ETH/BTC levels in the future or will it most likely be BTC dominance?

What is the ETH accumulation zone really, and how is it defined?
The ETH/BTC ration has caught everyone, including me, by surprise, and therefore I don't have (currently) any credible analysis I could trust. Quite the contrary, the fact that ETH/BTC ration did not fall under the psychological level of 0.48, is a potential source of trouble.

@ Arbusers,

Any thoughts on what basis can we say with a degree of confidence if Altcoins have bottomed against their BTC valuations?

Thanks

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:48 pm

@ Arbusers,

Any thoughts on what basis can we say with a degree of confidence if Altcoins have bottomed against their BTC valuations?

Thanks

My analysis is about BTC. Not altcoins.
Regards

I m taking the chance from Eleftherios' last post to speak some more about the markets and the investor's behaviour.

Many of the retail investors in the crypto sphere are people with no previous knowledge in investing and markets in general. Because of their youth and inexperience, the externalise the rawest instincts an investor would externalise. This is one (among many) reasons why cryptos outperform or underperform in bigger magnitudes compared to traditional markets like SP500.

Altcoins (others call them sh.tcoins) have a bigger investment basis in these people, compared to BTC and ETH. That is also one of the reasons why altcoins outperform or underperform in bigger magnitudes BTC and ETH.

One must think in USD or EUR terms and not in BTC terms. It is always a mistake counting your wealth or your portfolio in BTC. I ve met many wealthy people, and absolutely no-one thinks in BTC terms. They all think in USD or EUR terms. It is a mistake to marry a specific investment. Any investment should be seen as a vehicle or an opportunity that would help you get richer. Focusing today on BTC, doesn't mean that we will focus tomorrow too. If BTC represents a 4x opportunity while stock X represents a 5x opportunity, then we jump to the stock and not in BTC.

Let's take today's reality the way I see it. I understand that certain growth stocks are a nice value, but BTC is nicest. I have invested more funds in BTC than stocks. But this will change in the future when the opportunity shifts.

I hope i didn't puzzle your mind.

Dear arbusers,

You have spoken about correlation of BTC and the NDX. Indeed, there is phases of positive and negative correlation with no obvious explanation. However, I have noticed that since 2015 the correlation sets higher lows (appendix attached).

When as asset is correlated to another asset, they react in the same way. To react in the same way does it not mean that it is the same groups of interest behind the two investment vehicles? Therefore in this case correlation means causation.

Also since NDX is trading higher with time can we assume the same for BTC?

You mentioned you do not believe in the narratives such as the FED has to pivot to see a reversal in the market.

BTC is negatively correlated to the DXY. For as long as the FED keeps increasing interest rates (and at a higher rate than the counterpart economies) the dollar value will move up. For the FED to slow down the increases inflation has to be tamed at a 2-3% goal.

Since the FED's plan seems to work (increase interest rates -> CPI drops), the market participants will be more and more inclined to be risk on. The last days when we saw lower CPI than expectations BTC hour candle skyrocketed by $1K.

Given the accuracy of your investment strategy, how do we know if BTC has sustainably reversed or if we are simply in a counter trend rally?

Also, congrats for understanding and for letting us know (07.05.22) that Tesla sold their BTC. Its appears you were right again all along.

Thanks for your time and input so far.

It is now time to update you on the current state of play.

So far, everything goes according to the plan.

Have a look at the following graph:


Bitcoin raised its nose briefly above the accumulation zone. It might return back, or it might explode upside never to return in this zone for years, if ever.

An accumulation zone is always theoretical. It is an imaginary price range that fits certain criteria. This accumulation zone fits my criteria for a long term investment that would take advantage of the market cycle. I bought in the lows and I plan to sell near the new all time highs. Of course, during cycles, Bitcoin is experiencing a number of ups and downs, many of them at the magnitude of 30%. If my T.A shows a good opportunity to safely take advantage of these moves, I will be positioned accordingly.

Theoretically, someone could accumulate Bitcoin until the last day of the bull market, provided that he sells at the highest possible price. In this thread I am showing a certain investing profile, but other investment profiles could continue buying Bitcoins and still be very much profitable.

In the graph above I am drawing a channel in red. Have no doubt, this is a bearish channel, but I have confluence to say that one day the channel will brake upwards. Price could range within the channel for a long period of time, but in the end, even if it is bearish, I believe it will brake upwards. You also see a dot line that provides short time support and it is proven credible so far.

In the over all picture of the market, we see ETH running faster than BTC. I don't know how far this race is going to go, but there will be a day that ETH will be crashed against BTC. There is another narrative in the market, I call it again, a fairy tale, that ETH is boosted due to the merge. Narratives are in Youtube, Twitter and elsewhere to blind the irrational.

@Eleftherios: I dont care what the FED is saying, or the CPI is doing. I am not a Pythia that would interpret phenomena. I m following my Technical Analysis, because all the knowledge of market participants is embodied in the price.

We do not know for sure if we are experiencing a new bull market or a bear market rally. I believe that we are in a new bull market.

And of course, do you own DD...

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

@arbusers

I would highly appreciate an update of your market view at the current stage.

Thanks!

Eleftherios wrote: ↑

Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:36 am

@arbusers

I would highly appreciate an update of your market view at the current stage.

Thanks!

I m sorry, I m not posting on demand. I only post when I have to say something.

This is to inform the forum that I keep buying BTC whenever price goes below $20.000.
Now I am invested with 105% of the initial desired amount.

I might inform the community about the current state of play if I find the time. And of course, do your own DD.