Arbusers

I am considering to include a new variable in my model: Using the lowest margin bookie as a reference to find value in soft bookies.

I have observed that juice usually decreases in sharp bookies when the KO is closer. I am asuming that lower juice means that the bookie received volume enough to consider that odds are quite fair so they can afford a lower juice. I would do this for each event. This means that for each match, I could use a different bookie as reference, depending on the juice the bookies offer for that match.

What do you think about this? Do you think that the size of juice has a direct relation with the accuracy of the probabilities?

theoretically yes, if I understand correctly would you like to do it also between soft books, using the one with the smallest margin as sharp?

If so, you must also take into consideration the bet limits,

in fact some bookmakers have low juice just to advertise themselves but not making you bet more than 5 coins,

in this case, as you can imagine, their security on the match is not solid

josé wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 22, 2023 4:03 pm

I am considering to include a new variable in my model: Using the lowest margin bookie as a reference to find value in soft bookies.

I have observed that juice usually decreases in sharp bookies when the KO is closer. I am asuming that lower juice means that the bookie received volume enough to consider that odds are quite fair so they can afford a lower juice. I would do this for each event. This means that for each match, I could use a different bookie as reference, depending on the juice the bookies offer for that match.

What do you think about this? Do you think that the size of juice has a direct relation with the accuracy of the probabilities?

The margin used by agencies has nothing to do with a direct relationship to value.
Let's say you calculated that the probability of a given Asian Handicap line in terms of probability is the same level as the bookie did it. Assume that line is (-0.75) and you and the agency think the probability is maximum close to 50 percent for every leg of that line. The business decisions of the agency aren't value references here. They could publish somethin' like 1.834 - 1.834 and days later near the Kick-Off, they could publish circa 1.905 - 1.905 (bigger limits), but the offered probability on their end is still closer to 50 percent, the same as yours. Indirectly, you can benefit by taking the best possible low-margin market odds at those 50 percent levels if your analysis and risk assessment warrants it. For example, a bigger Caribbean agency's offer of 1.93 or so.
Imagine you've calculated a given line's probabilities somethin' like 55:45 and you aim to attack the underdog (hypothetical 2.222 with margin removed). But they offer their wonderful 60:40 and you could wait until closer to the Kick-Off to maximize the value if the odds fluctuation is predictable.
To be more complicated, imagine that breaking news (injuries, federation decisions, etc) could arise in later days in your "predictable fluctuations market" and when a famous Offshore agency, known for non-equal margin applied on every leg offers some lines...
And so on, and so on...

Low hold doesn't equal soft book. Most of the time soft books have lines where the line is too high for the favorite making the underdog the soft line.