Draw no bet

Make bookmakers cash cow machines
jayman
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Draw no bet

Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:19 pm

Hello everyone, nice work.

I've gotta question about draw no bet - draw no bet [H1(0)-H2(0)] arbing.

Is it worth to make additional bet for tie or is it beter to live it like that with return in case of draw?

I made some calculation, but it didn't help me much. Looks like it's meanningless mathematicaly, but gives you some "discomfort" when the stake is just refund.

Thanks everyone.
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arbusers
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Re: Draw no bet

Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:52 pm

I never take low arbs with DNB. I always take arbs of more than 1.5%. Otherwise it doesn't worth it. Also, i always take these arbs, when they enable big bookmakers, meaning that bets will be big. After these 2 conditions met, i always place a draw bet, just to make sure that i get something no matter what the result will be.
HiIamhere
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Re: Draw no bet

Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:10 pm

Of course I 'll prefer an -0.5 +0.5 arb over a DNB arb but if I have money available I and there is only DNB arb then I am taking it. Mostly I tend to cover the draw in live when the odds raise significantly if a team takes lead in the second half.

Also note that in case of a draw in a -0.25 +0.25 arb, you get half the profit than what you would get in case of home or away win.

Of course you can try to set up cross market arbs when you find a value bet on DNB or 0.25 line. This way there isn't a danger of losing a potential profit.
jayman
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Re: Draw no bet

Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:50 pm

After these 2 conditions met, i always place a draw bet, just to make sure that i get something no matter what the result will be
Well, anyways all your afford to bet and find the best draw odd can be worth just nothing more than better mood for the moment. From my observation it seams to be no difference betwin DNB DR DNB and just DNB DNB arb. Money you get from potencial draw result is just about high enough to cover all draw bets which you potentialy loose in other DNB DR DNB arbs. But draw bet doesn't mean you saveing money i gues, just saveing time.

I wonder if someone made any long term calculations to define if it is better to add draw, or not.
Also note that in case of a draw in a -0.25 +0.25 arb, you get half the profit than what you would get in case of home or away win.
In this case you don't live with nothing though :)
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Re: Draw no bet

Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:00 am

I cover big arbs, and let go small ones. In a longrun should be the same result, thought. Its more about intuition or feeling what i do and i bet more on EV + if i know it.
DonS
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Re: Draw no bet

Thu Nov 17, 2011 4:13 pm

Yeah covering the draw or not should give the same profit in the long run, unless the draw odds has EV+, ceteris paribus. If the latter is the case, you will profit more from covering the draw. The other way around if the draw odds has EV-.
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Re: Draw no bet

Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:49 am

on bets bringing more than 15€ net I tend to use around 5€@draw just in case...

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