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For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
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arb12
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:50 am

Three wickets within 16 balls always count. Brisbane Heat has clearly lost a bit of momentum and the odds stats in such situations need to be interpreted very quickly before any value bets are made.
By the way, I remembered some performances of Ravichandran Ashwin in the past on some occasions in the IPL and that helps me today in terms of the odds behavior (in-play mode). Strange analogy, but helpful in the end.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:15 am

After losing the initial momentum and gaining further momentum at the Dead Overs stage, pre-match underdogs Brisbane Heat cruised through the Evens to become slight favorites at the break time.
Due to the slightly different patterning of the BBL this year, my advice is to split the next 20 overs into slightly different intervals, bearing in mind the Perth Scorchers' tactical approach in their portion of the batting game. And many other conditions, of course.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Feb 05, 2023 1:34 pm

The South African T20, Joburg SK vs Sunrisers EC at the moment.
What exactly happened after the 14th Over with a near-perfect performance by the Super Kings? Faf du Plessis scored a near century, almost perfect S/R, and something of an Anchor Batsman at the same time but…
The odds went up in one direction from circa 1.4 to circa 2.5 despite a 99% perfect game performed by a minotaur like Faf du Plessis which opens up a beautiful market position and I wonder what tactical tasks will be given to Aidan Markram and Marco Jansen after the break-time of that match.
The model insists on taking on various additional market positions depending on these tasks. In addition, Teekshana's starting economy rate will be another important component today for the odds calculations. Let's see what happens.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:00 pm

Joburg, the Championship decider match in SA T20 is performing now.

Outstanding performance by the bowling department of the Sunrisers team! Mendis and Neesham were dismissed by the SunRisers EC's bowlers at the right time. A second youth for van der Merwe.

Also, I am disappointed with the quality of this game (except for the SR EC team's bowling). The final match in any tournament should be a holiday for the spectators as far as the quality of the game is concerned. Both teams are capable of so much more, but the pressure to be first or second really spoiled the quality and joy of this wonderful game.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:16 pm

The Legends League Cricket Masters, the 4th match at the moment, Asia Lions vs India Maharajas.
What a beautiful game being played by the duo of Robin Uthappa and Gautam Gambhir right now!
And a multi-million dollar market for those old gold Masters - cricketers on the pitch in Doha, indeed…
All the past Stats for those players are still valid.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Mar 25, 2023 3:25 pm

The Legends Cricket Trophy, Match 8 is running now.
Do you remember Stuart Binny in the Rajasthan Royals team and other teams in the IPL tournament?
He is currently batting for Vizag Titans in Legends Cricket Trophy against Patna Warriors. Binny & Singh have already scored half-centuries against Patna separately in this match and in my opinion, the current odds of around 1.3 in favor of Vizag are easy to attack at this point (start of Death Overs). My argument is the central value in past statistics, minus some margin of safety.

Addendum: Binny is out (caught by Clarke) at 16.4 Over, I have to readjust the Model after Patna's initial batting. But in general, 1.3 is the wrong odds.
Last edited by arb12 on Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Mar 25, 2023 3:41 pm

Due to Thisara Perera's 280 S/R, I advise you to close at a minimal profit just now ( very close to 1.28) and in the PowerPlay stage (Patna batting) to readjust some new entries, if the computed value appears.

Addendum: Apologies, it's 240 S/R actually.
Last edited by arb12 on Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Mar 25, 2023 3:55 pm

The Proteas vs WI at the moment.
Due to the decision of 11 Overs per side, very interesting things happened at Centurion. For example, over 11 runs per Over. And the most interesting, the turnaround of the odds after the break time. The over 20 million ML market at the moment is full of possibilities.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sat Mar 25, 2023 4:29 pm

Obviously, Isuru Udana's 300+ SR is enough at the moment vs Patna, if other batsmen from this team are sleeping today so the value is almost gone now. Still circa 1.07 for Vizag, but far below 1.27-1.3 region.

Addendum: Interesting, at that moment Udana and Stuart Binny aren't very good in the bowling vs Patna (above 7 Econ), but two of the other bowlers achieved circa 3 Econ vs that awful SR for Patna, so...
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:52 pm

The Proteas vs West Indies right now.
For all of Centurion's stats, the model has black holes for the probability of scoring a hundred during the Proteas' Powerplay. The reversal of some odds minutes ago is mind-blowing when it comes to the case when in a T20 International match a team is setting a target of 259…

I have remembered the case when in Lauderhill, Florida the West Indians beat India 245:244 in the T20 International format, so some Stats have to be forced and processed in a very quality manner...
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Mar 26, 2023 3:15 pm

David Miller in similar cases usually is the golden batsman. I'm wondering why he is at the moment his quota at under 100 S/R. Therefore the dropping odds' speed is interrupted, but what is the tactical order by the SA coach?

Addendum: 100 S/R was achieved by Miller right now, but Jason Holder removed him...
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Sun Mar 26, 2023 3:25 pm

It's amazing, but in similar Historic cases in the sport of Cricket, 1.15-1.04.-1.17-1.02 odds moving is just a present. My error here is the lack of reliable Stats in similar cases...
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:42 pm

Vizag Titans vs Indore Knights right now.

If anyone caught those significantly dropping odds during the first two Overs (40 Runs, WOW) then Congratulations!
My model settings for today didn't allow me to catch them at all. For some statistical reasons, I was waiting for Stuart Binny and at least one of these two - Thisara Perera and Isuru Udana - to appear on the field in the batting lineup. That's pretty good, but the downside is a lot of Runs today, especially in the first and second Overs. The above-mentioned three players did not take the field in the batting part for Vizag Titans.
On the other hand, I have some doubts about Vizag's fielding tactics today vs Indore Knights' batting order during the Powerplay, so let's see what happens in the next six Overs.
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:06 pm

The Proteas vs West Indies now.

Although the conditions here in Joburg are quite different from the Centurion ground, the money line market today is admiring some of the Boundaries hit by the batsmen. So, the influence of the Centurions' 259:258 two days ago upon today's match is an interesting phenomenon and you may use those in your market positions next 8 Overs.

Not to mention other irregularities and errors in the odds, created by the market-makers, spotted these minutes, provided that you've dug into the last tendencies of the Cricket mysteries in detail. Eight Overs to go...
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Re: For the love of the game. Cricket actually

Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:12 pm

Vizag vs Avengers is the second semi-final currently at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium.

An emergency set-up for the model was in effect due to Stuart Binny's much better Economy Rate over Thisara Perera's (about 5 times) and this resulted in at least a 10 percent reduction in Guwahati's odds at some limited moments during the initial Overs after the Break-Time.
With a couple of unexpected exits due to caught value prices at the markets and a trading halt for today, the trading plan has been unexpectedly exceeded.

Normally Binny is better as a Batsman and not so good lately as a Bowler but today…

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