Arbusers

I expected more things from Ishan Kishan but…

The odds of 1.4 vs 1.25 is pinpointing something at the moment.

Is Cameron Green forced to do his best dance as a batsman right now? I'm not so sure.

In my opinion, the first precaution would be about of odds touching of 1.7 in Punjab Kings' favor (If that happens and some calculations will be in effect).

Addendum: Excuse my fast typing, please.

Now after Rohit Sharma's dismissal, I'm thinking about Yadav-Green's tactics in the fight at the moment and the discrepancies of some odds….

Yadav-David vs Curran&Ellis battle, do you have a pattern of that? Round one...

The various markets of Chennai Super Kings in general.

In the medium term, some additional positions may be opened due to relatively successful tactics by Stephen Fleming.

And why is Devon Conway entering the IPL in his thirties and not much earlier? I watched the Fleming experiment with Conway & Ajinkya Rahane very closely. Conway has outperformed expectations so far, but given that Rahane doesn't favor the T20 scoring dynamic as he did in his earlier Rajasthan Royals days, I'll open extra positions in some markets.

Let's see what happens...

The way Rahane handled the delivery with his bat in 17.6 Ov against KKR at Eden Gardens minutes ago was just phenomenal! The following Sixes in 18.4 and 18.5 Ov also.

Has CSK's coaching staff forced him out of his personal low-scoring comfort zone? Today definitely yes, but in the long run? His 2022 performance in the Kolkata Knight Riders team was quite different…

Rawalpindi, quite a quality PAK vs Black Caps T20 clash at the moment.

This is the first time I've seen the published odds skyrocketing for no time (from 1.08 to 6 for PAK right now) when hidden talent Mark Chapman bats so superbly. Time for market intervention and statistics processing again.

I was so sad for both historic teams Delhi and Sunrisers in today's IPL bottom fishing derby, will Delhi or SRH sign Mark Chapman in the IPL 2024?

Well, I wonder if anyone has been involved in possibly the most liquid clash of IPL 2023, PK vs LSG. The record liquidity of over 165 million was not that helpful after Lucknow's 257 runs before the break. The strangest thing here was that the very clear statistical favorite Lucknow Super Giants had practically no problems at all, that's why the pre-match odds were so strange in my opinion, so what was the catch in these pre-match odds?

The Eliminator stage is in Chennai right now, Mumbai Indians vs LSG right now.
Well, after the dismissal of both the batsmen Rohit Sharma and Ishan Kishan and later scoring acceleration by Green and Yadav, after the big error of opting to bat first by the Mumbai captain, the huge value in terms of one of the markets today is presenting itself now and I think it will last for a minimum of a few overs, no more. Here I don't imply Moneyline at all.

Is anyone participating in the IPL markets here?

Have in mind, that there is a poor Krunal Pandya's bowling performance right now vs the new duo of batsmen Tim David & Tilak Varma, and the Evens odds in the Moneyline market at the moment, are a big present right now.

I think right now some market noise could lure some of the participants, provided they don't see the real odds-movers on the pitch. However, Sky Sports Cricket can help differentiate some things.

I think Chris Jordan's catch by Deepak Hooda finally moved the real odds range closer to the next trigger. In the second part, some elements of my pre-match trading plan expect the performance of an overvalued XXX weight of points of Marcus Stoinis and more cautiously of Nicholas Pooran, let's say a value of XXY weight of points, according to the preliminary analysis.
The assessment of the bowling dept of the Mumbai Indians team is in the range of XX1 to XX2, as usual, but I've got an emergency exit if something fails.
Let's see what happens.

Addendum: the very large presence in the runtime (many Overs till now) of stability of the range of Even odds in ML is a valuable gift to attack some substitute triggers.

The Final of the IPL 2023 in Ahmedabad, Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans. After yesterday's all-day rain barrier, I hope they put on their top-notch show today.

So, would we witness the last "helicopter"-style batting shots by MS Dhoni today? He said he could retire after IPL 2023, but nothing is sure. Nobody will protest if he stays in IPL 2024. I think the age of 42 y.o. couldn't be the legend's limit in that mentality condition. In Chepauk days ago and in Eden Gardens and in Bengaluru and other stadiums across the country earlier, the Chennai Super Kings fans and the opposing teams' fans together bid farewell to him, for example:

youtube.com/shorts/v8shaUIxhFE

youtube.com/watch?v=BBMDL5OKVC8

youtube.com/watch?v=Mw5Aph0vy0g

youtube.com/watch?v=ktB3dRx7-0A

Thank you Legend for all the Masterpieces you've created on the pitch! The way you captained your teams in the IPL and in ODI's against England and Australia and against many others gave all the fans unforgettable emotions over the years! I hope you will be available for the retired legends tournaments alongside Sachin Tendulkar, Chris Gayle, Shahid Afridi, Alastair Cook, Lasith Malinga, Shane Watson, Luke Ronchi, Mohammad Hafeez and other great stars of yesteryear!

Personally, I decided for myself that today there are no pre-match market positions, no odds compilations, no live market positions, no probability calculations, no graphs building, no coaching analyses, no players analyses, no statistical processing, no modeling and so on… Today is a pure show and we got to witness the last match of the King. The ultimate pleasure of watching the Cricket Masters! Here are MS Dhoni, David Miller, Shubman Gill, Rashid Khan, Ajinkya Rahane, Dewon Conway, the new Malinga-style young bowler Matheesha Pathirana, Hardik Pandya, and so on, and so forth. Directed by Stephen Fleming & Ashish Nehra.

Maybe an eyewitness at the stadium will post here later?

My impressions of the Great IPL 2023 Final for the History: Unlike the much slower pitch in Chepauk (see IPL 2023 Qualifier 1), here in Ahmedabad during their bowling portion of the game, after their toss decision to bowl first, the Yellow Team seemed to have two main goals:
- To dismiss Shubman Gill as early as possible - almost done but too many conceded runs from Gill;
- To restrict the Gujarat Titans team below their historic par score during the first inning at the "Narendra Modi" venue. This is where CSK failed on the face of it when conceded the record 214 in terms of the IPL Final first-inning score. But I would point out two things: Firstly, if MS Dhoni as WicketKeeper had not dismissed Shubman Gill and W.Saha, I think the score would have easily gone over 230 Runs for GT (bye-bye IPL Title then), and secondly, Stephen Fleming took a lot of risks to have any chance against the 2 y.o. starry team, backed by the unlimited financial resource of CVC Capital Partners. GT has the same financial power and star players as Real or PSG in terms of soccer, chasing a second title in their second year of existence.

After a good start in the chasing after the break (first CSK Over), the Duckworth Lewis Stern (DLS) method was adopted due to shortened inning (bad weather). Here I spotted thousands of things here, some of them are:
- After Ajinkya Rahane's second Six scored, CSK turned into a clear favorite in terms of class and psychology.
- Fleming again change the mindset of players of longer cricket formats than T20. For example, Rahane failed in Kolkata Knight Riders and here in CSK had second youth. And do you remember Cheteshwar Pujara (test cricket player) on the CSK bench?
- The "Golden Duck", conceded by Dhoni was a great nervous error.
The U-turn in terms of favorite was almost done, at least before the last two shots...
- The very big risks of Run-Outs, when the CSK batters tend to score more than one run, different from a Boundary. Almost happened several times. Big GT fielders errors, who missed these chances - the price was the lost Title.
- Khan, Shami, etc were restricted as bowling geniuses today. A brilliant preparation by the Super Kings' batsmen. During those GT bowling attacks, Fleming was relatively relaxed.
- The same for Pathirana vs GT batsmen in the first part.
- Gary Kirsten and Ashish Nehra were so stressed. They relaxed and smiled when there were two strikes to go and 10 runs needed for CSK. Almost a hopeless case for CSK at the end, but... The last two shots and especially the last one, performed by Jadeja were just phenomenal.


Now it's time for something quite different. The series decider in a few minutes, Miami Heat@ Boston Celtics. Enjoy!