Arbusers

I'm so excited about that top-notch clash a few hours ago at Lord's between England and Australia Women, I'm still analyzing that 3rd T20 International and preparing my trading plan for the 1st-ODI-related markets between the same teams in Bristol on July 12.

Well, I've felt that a perfect player like Danni Wyatt has been slightly overrated lately (let's just say her projected achievement by the model was 9 out of 10 possible pips in her favor) and the Aussies knew it too. Therefore, the calculated probabilities for several scenarios of her dismissal by the Australian bowling attack were prepared. According to my settings today, the most likely time for Wyatt's dismissal by the Aussies was somewhere between the second and fifth or even sixth Over, if it was even possible for them.

One of the funniest and cash-in things during the match at Lord's was the appearance of a non-standard symmetrical slice of an odds chart, supported by very specific circumstances. Take a look at the highlighted ellipse in the right corner of the attached file.
I have been interested in thousands of cricket matches, but this symmetry (within that interval of 12 bowling deliveries) is not that likely under normal circumstances on the pitch. But analyzing those graphics, bear in mind the following:
- Wet outfield, causing some uncertainty after the break, but England had to play their batting portion of the game that moment! Good batsmen know how to play against fielders in a dew or wet outfield. Wyatt too;
- The slightly risky tactics for achieving an initial high Strike Rate, chosen by the opening batsmen pair for England;
- Further recalculation by me of a possible Wyatt's removal (after achieving CRR circa 8.5);
- Shockingly weak initial bowling deliveries by the top-notch Aussies despite the risky gaming by the opponents;
- And Duckworth/Lewis/Stern Method was in effect after the break time. Top-quality teams and coaches couldn't be affected by a little risky rearranging their tactical approach when the D/L method appears, but the Aussies...
Additionally, the latest data package and graphs on Wyatt's performance and projected data insisted on the likelihood of some things.

The end of the slope line (on the left side of the ellipse) is the logical end of the five Fours, achieved by Wyatt within the interval from 2.3 to 3.5 Ov. The market reacts to the sudden double dismissal in two bowling deliveries in a row (3.6 and 4.1 Ov, the pinnacles in the graphics in the ellipse) and due to amazing Six by Capsey's at 5.5 Ov the level of the chart in ellipse recovered slightly early than usual (here don't forget the Four at 5.1 Ov). Some of these sudden moves (mostly in 3.6 Danni Wyatt and in 4.1 too) were among the most profitable moments today.
And many more factors and variables for every player, all the match.

Addendum - when mentioning shocking moves for a very little time, in terms of soccer, a little analogy with Germany vs Zambia Women match a day ago when the last three goals were scored after the 90th minute. 0:2 till 91st min and 2:3 in the end.

Has anyone compiled the Tamil Nadu Premier League tournament odds and entered some market positions?

It's undoubtedly one of the most enjoyable tournaments to watch in that country, perhaps second only to the unattainable IPL in terms of top-quality cricket.

I was surprised by the overall poor performance of the Chepauk Super Gillies team in the TNPL 2023. Next time I need to find my errors through a lot of tests here and mitigate those ones in my model. But overall CSG is a very, very good team.
Many factors prevent me from doing more quality positions in TNPL - some of the players are not that well known, so the statistics and data available are insufficient, and only personal observations of the games help me avoid many modeling errors here. At the end of the tournament, thanks to the collected data, statistics and many personal impressions on the pitch, the TNPL 2023 model has become way more mature than before, but a few annoying errors are still there too. However, the IPL tournament is much better and more convenient for me in terms of modeling. Same analogy as NCAAB - NBA in terms of US Basketball. Still have to learn a lot here.

The Tamil Nadu Premier League 2023 final is coming very soon - Lyca Kovai Kings vs Nellai Royal Kings.

Both finalists are among the top quality three teams in TNPL 2023 (with Dindigul Dragons in that list) – only one win separates these three teams in the points table as well as the NRR ratio.

Some words for the chosen by me settings in the final today.

I see that the agencies incorporated the LKK's monstrous Net Run Rate (2.155 vs 0.696) in the LKK's compiled odds vs the NRK ones. Me too, but from that step, I have some additional reasons to improve NRK's odds. The model did several secondary triggers based on the fact, that the sole LKK loss in 2023 was against their opponent in the final today.

LKK is a very solid team and if the conditional quality of:
- Some spotted and predefined relations inside the team between batting partnerships;
- And also between the fielding players plus given bowlers;
- Many others, but more negligible than the aforementioned two;

are not below a given level, say XXY (observed in several games so far),
even in case of the wrong tactical approach, the team becomes a very strong favorite.

On the other hand, when it comes to the (pseudo) underdog NRK, the model insists much more assigned weight on the quality of the play of the youngsters Easwaran (predefined by the model assessment as a batsman and additionally also as his wicketkeeper assessment) & Ajitesh (batsman), also more critically assigned weight when it comes to Arun Karthik. And many others, of course.

So the matrix of these factors and many others formed my positions for that Final.

I'm wondering why exactly Arun Karthik is not the Wicketkeeper here. Do you remember his membership in the golden Royal Challengers Bangalore 2011 team (Gayle, Vettori, de Villiers)?

In addition, in 2023, I was impressed by many youngsters, but Easwaran and Ajitesh should be included in the IPL one day. For example, their batting and wicket strength can be combined in a team with bowlers like Lungi Ngidi & Matheesha Pathirana and an experienced all-rounder like Jason Holder…

Your opinions?

Is anyone watching the initial season of the Major League Cricket, USA from day one?

Well, let's just say that thanks to the newborn MLC, top-quality cricket is back in the USA. It is impossible to be forgotten the T20I West Indies vs India 245:244 thriller in Lauderhill, FL a few years ago...

Even though some of the world's best IPL players compete there in the USA, I still restrain from building general probabilities on my side even though all the stats and data are known about those players. Among the big uncertainties for the model before finishing the round one in the Major League Cricket I would stress those two:
- Some unusual combinations of various kinds of top-notch players in terms of their working style;
- Unknown characteristics in terms of preparation and gaming conditions of the announced two pitches (Grand Prairie, TX & Morrisville, NC).
And plenty of other variables to be evaluated, of course.

Also, I have great observations when a tournament is not played as the classic Round-Robin formula at each home team's ground (subject to the home team's specifical preparation on the pitch) and later away.
I've remembered strong cases like Canada's GT20 tournaments in 2018 & 2019, held on one or two pitches, IPL 2020 outside India held on three pitches and even IPL 2021 - 4 grounds in India and three abroad.
In terms of Soccer, when you try to model teams playing a sole game or a whole tournament on neutral ground, sometimes things get a little different. For example, the FA tournament's Semis and the Final at Wembley.

Other interesting variables for the model are the unknown current sporting form of some bright players like Moises Henriques, Dwayne Bravo, Imran Tahir, Kieron Pollard and others.

And so on, and so on.

As for the opening game, I was particularly interested in the Texas Super Kings, where Stephen Fleming managed one team, full of stars like Devon Conway, David Miller, Dwayne Bravo, Faf du Plessis and others.

The second match is running at the moment, Lungi Ngidi & Rashid Khan aren't there on the pitch...

I'm waiting for the appropriate triggers very soon in the tournament.

I'd love to read the opinions of beholders of Major League Cricket, if any.

The Canadian GT20 League 2023 in T20 format finished a few hours ago, Surrey Jaguars vs Montreal Tigers was the Final, the Tigers won by five wickets. Andre Russell via his monstrous batting strike rate of above 333 do the job again as a team finisher, unlike his job in the Major League Cricket's Los Angeles Knight Riders recently.

In general, the sport of Cricket is looking for its appropriate way in North America.

After a very good reception from American audiences (mostly of Asian origin) in stadiums in Texas and North Carolina, watching the inaugural season of Major League Cricket, the next move was the Global T20 in Canada.

While the contesting teams of the first season of the MLC had structured around the core of some leading IPL notable players, I was wondering how the third season of the GT20 league will look after the very long pause, that started in 2019. In GT20 were hired also some contemporary and former IPL players, plus the core of notable Pakistani players, much more than in US MLC. That guaranteed a very classy tournament. But only the Brampton pitch is an old decision from the 2018 and 2019 seasons. I don't accept that in terms of game diversity.

From the point of view of a Cricket lover watching endless numbers of matches so far, I enjoyed perhaps the last appearances (in terms of seasons to go) on the pitch of capable players like Dwayne Bravo (MLC), Faf du Plessis (MLC), Carlos Brathwaite (GT20), Shoaib Malik (GT20). Regretfully Imran Tahir didn't appear on the pitch for Texas Super Kings and it's a pity that Mohammad Hafeez, who played in Kolkata Knight Riders in the past, wasn't hired in MLC or GT20. Did you watch his great appearance in the Zim Afro T10 tournament for the Joburg Buffaloes team? Taken wicket after wicket, performance at its best...
Additionally, I wondered why only Fakhar Zaman was hired without Babar Azam for the Vancouver Knights team. And so on, and so on...

No doubt, the Indian stars were the big missing here in USA and Canada. BCCI, why?

I think all the Cricket fans around the world want three things:
- The most famous and talented Pakistani players to be hired again, to compete again in the IPL tournament;
- The most talented Indian BCCI-contracted players to be allowed to compete abroad in the most famous T20 leagues around the world, including the PSL and so on;
- India and Pakistan revive again their bilateral Cricket series again almost every year.
I don't know what the real problem is to realize these three. All the beauty of cricket will come again if these three are realized.

But from the point of view of a Cricket fan and market participant, let me mention an interesting fact. I enjoyed perhaps literally the last appearances on the pitch of notorious players like The Universe Boss and Shahid Afridi. My model insisted on quite different settings about them:
- While Chris Gayle's lack of deep enjoyment of Cricket and lowered motivation in some matches was spotted by me sometime around the time of his departure from Royal Challengers Bangalore and his commitment to Kings XI Punjab in the IPL, the data and curves used by the model reacted with a delay. Therefore additional tune-up helped here and later the triggers about Chris Gayle's probable performance on the pitch become much more accurate than before.
An additional factor here is the Universe Boss' engagement to shorter formats than T20, and especially 6IXTY. After one tournament in West Indies, his motivation lowered severely, and the appropriate weight of that fact was assigned in the model, but the funniest thing here was the available good computed probability of his performance within a couple of several appearances on the pitch through the statistically processed array while he amazingly alternated between successful matches and failures in varying order. The hardest part here was defining the playing interval of (X to Y) number of matches where the calculated probability would be valid.
For some reason, I put a maximum of 5 matches in Canadian GT20, and within that couple of matches, Chris Gayle to achieve a minimum of Fifty with my probability and market position, risking a maximum of four matches. To be more complicated, that was incorporated by me in the money line odds of Mississauga Panthers. In other words, The Universe Boss at that age is more than demotivated except for the XXY factor and that was my chance.
To my surprise, the target was achieved in the second match vs Vancouver Knights. Well done, Chris Gayle! 61 runs.
- On the other hand, Shahid Afridi is one of those players for whom you spot that the game of Cricket is pulsating in their veins, no matter the current age of the player. The pure joy of the game.
Although he rarely appears lately, all his dedication to the batting and the bowling portion of the game is rated as high as possible according to his age. The appropriate estimations were in effect in the GT20 2023 tournament, inputted in the model, that player simply doesn't get old! That's why values like circa 190 batting strike (vs Vancouver Knights) rate and below 4 ECON (two Wickets taken, vs Brampton Wolves) at some moments are not unexpected. Naturally, these values are pinnacles, but highly probable ones if you observe carefully his career so far.
Here I mean a player starting his 44th y.o.

I would like to see again India, led by MS Dhoni and Sachin Tendulkar vs Pakistan, led by Shahid Afridi and Mohammad Hafeez!

Absolutely impressed with the news of Prithvi Shaw's 244 runs scored a few hours ago (and Northamptonshire's 415 for 8 vs the Somerset team). Unfortunately, I didn't have any free time left to watch it. I just don't have time to spare for England's One-Day (50 Overs) Cricket Cup. All my cricket activities i.e. modeling, are focused on Sri Lanka's Premier T20 League and UK's The Hundred competitions, both Men and Ladies, at the moment.

Although I haven't very informed opinion (didn't watch any other Shaw's performances lately outside of Indian National team and Delhi Capitals in IPL, very controversial last matches there, I wasn't impressed with the way, the ease, and the early time of his dismissals by the bowling attacks of the opponents), after he scored more than two tons today, how about the possibility that the BCCI selectors may revise their squad for the matches versus Pakistan on September 2nd, Asian Cup 2023 and October 14th, World Cup 2023? And also, are we likely to witness a top-class partnership between Shaw and Ajinkya Rahane as both the players have scored six consecutive boundaries within one Over in the IPL in the past? Ranahe in Chennai Super Kings was in optimal form. Additionally, I think he's much more capable in ODI formats, so Rahane & Shaw presence in the top-order batsmen's list for India or even an opening batsmen duo would be an option in given tactical circumstances. The problem here is getting the right pre-estimates into the model for a very steady and somewhat slow-scoring Rahane, in a hypothetical partnership with a very explosive but very erratic Shaw. Perhaps an option for stability here is Shaw as opening batsman (initial partnership with Virat Kohli, Shubman Gill or Rohit Sharma, depending on the tactics chosen) and Ajinkya Rahane as 4th in the batting order, but here the probability of X percent of the cumulative desired effect of the storm of a large number of consecutive boundaries hit by both the players (provided that they are an opening batsmen duo) would have been wasted in my opinion.


On the other hand, I'd like to see the Pakistanis' tactical answer if the aforementioned duo happens at all. It is not the same if Mohammad Rizwan as a Wicket-keeper would dismiss Prithvi Shaw at the very beginning or after 70 runs scored by him (when Ajinkya Rahane is likely to act as Anchor, defending some things). It is not the same if some explosive traditions come back, for example, to watch the way Babar Azam and Fakhar Zaman accelerate beyond the conditional level of X and Y spotted by me, without increasing the risk of collapse. By the way, their national coaches have mitigated Pakistan's notorious batting collapse to a very large extent in the past, so relevant value market positions built on these facts have rarely created value lately.

And so on.

The Hundred Ladies' Tournament 2023, UK.

The semi-final and final are coming up on the 26th and 27th of August respectively.
The Southern Brave team awaits the opponent in the final, the winner in the semi-final Northern Superchargers vs Welsh Fire.

To best prepare for the final from my side, I prefer to watch the semi-final, gathering the pre-selected information and tactical approaches at the Oval ground without participating in the markets.

In my trading plan, one of the most weighted-assigned factors in the markets in the final is the battle between the atomic run-scoring trio of Southern Brave vs the opponents' bowling department.

In my opinion, backed by the on-the-pitch performance, at least one player of the batting trio Smriti Mandhana, Danni Wyatt & Maia Bouchier is not in her optimal sporting form, but that fact didn't stop the team from winning all the matches but one of them. The raw Stats hide that fact (for example S/R batting Statistics), but some additional Data processing plus the mandatory watching the matches by trained eyes reveal a lot of useful things.
I've got my arguments to dig into deep preliminary assessments of the quality of the bowling departments of both the Welsh Fire and Northern Superchargers teams.
Furthermore, I have to model probabilities of additional cases if the final is Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire. Why? On one hand, the raw NRR Stats show us 0.681 vs 0.602 ( the Northern SuperChargers team are behind here, 0.357). On the other hand, the sole loss for Southern Brave so far was against... the Welsh Fire team.
If Welsh Fire qualify for the final at Lord's, the additional cases must be properly assessed in terms of probabilities beforehand. And imagine the hypothetical situation if another Southern Brave immense power batsman is restricted early by the opponent's bowling dept (why not by Alex Griffiths) and additionally Tammy Beaumont do the run-scoring job... What's the likelihood of that? Could we attack wrong prices?

Let's see what happens.

The Hundred Ladies' Tournament 2023, UK. The Final is going to start within a few minutes.

Due to the "bad weather" rule, not due to being a better team in the Qualifier, the Northern SuperChargers moved to the Final vs the favorite Southern Brave.

In addition to my previous posting, here I put into the Model the following:
- The calculated probability of influence of Jemimah Rodrigues' batting possibilities.
- Some corrections in terms of estimations of Davidson-Richards' bowling probabilities.
- The possible measures from the coach Charlotte Edwards' side to neutralize Litchfield via slightly different bowling tactics.

I have in mind some asterisks for Hollie Armitage.

Overall, the underdog's pre-match bowling against the outstanding batting from the pre-match favorite will decide this match, but some batsmen are not at their best and I am curious what precautions will be taken for that. Also, I expect some surprise tactical attempts from the NC's end to change that.

Let's see what happens.

Smriti Mandhana is caught by Kelly!
I expected that, but later in the first several Overs, not in the first one.
That exceeds my market expectations.

Some value market entry opportunities arise after Armitage fires Bouchier!
In my opinion, medium-term hedging is much preferable here…

In my view, until the Southern Brave team lowers their odds from 2.2 to 1.6 it's not sustainable to open more positions here in any direction.

Danni Wyatt's 135 S/R stat ratio was great for providing a good closure of the market well ahead of the Brave's touching of 1.6...

Kelly's reaction to Bell's bowling delivery looks suicidal in this play.
But Rodrigues is coming now plus Armitage. If the RPB Stat gets close to 1.4 over the next 50 balls, I think it's worth opening your preset positions.

Jemimah Rodrigues achieved 222 S/R, but insufficient to trigger predefined market positions due to the very low 1.25 RPB for Northern Super Chargers at the moment...

Fifty balls to go, 61 for 4, and six wickets in hand, good value positions compared to the predefined risk at the current moment...