Arbusers

After Davidson-Richards' dismissal, I'm waiting for a bowling attack vs Rodrigues and her mental sustainability. A maximum of 30 percent deviation of the probabilities is expected from now on, in case she outperforms some batting expectations.

Lucy Higham's dismissal was too easy, she seemed to be waiting for the end of the match and not fighting at all...

Second ODI in Bloemfontein, the Proteas vs the Aussies now. Missing Lungi Ngidi is a big mistake…
After 360 runs after the 46th Over for the Aussies, I wonder how exactly the captain Temba Bavuma will line up the batting order for the chase.
Statistics dictate the next moves: If Quinton de Kock and Aidan Markram (provided they are the opening duo in the batting order) don't start at least at a quota of at least 6 RPO in the Powerplay, a minimum of 70 percent of the position can be hedged to a big plus. I look forward to David Miller's tactical role in some market decisions…
Your opinions?

By the way, I have modeled Marnus Labuschagne's appearance on the pitch in case the IPL takes him...

So, with the Bavuma - de Kock opening duo hitting around 9 RPO in the chase, I decided to open an additional 5 percent position in the appropriate direction suggested by the model setups so far…

By the way, Sean Abbott as a Bowler is not suitable here, 9.5 Economy rate so far. Hence an extra equation is placed here.

In my opinion, the Aussie captain Mitchell Marsh should stop Abbott as a bowler today because of the big added risk here. The quota was raised to 11.00 ECON...

An additional Y percentage position in the market is offered by the Model provided that no wicket is taken till the 10th over and the CRR Ratio is above 7.9...

It's a great sight to spot the tactical trap from Australia right now… Don't be lured by the possible UltraEdge system decision...
This tactical decision by Marsh ensured a change in odds from 1.3 to 1.18 on the exchanges...

The CPL, Qualifier 2, Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Jamaica Tallawahs are producing a super show at the moment.

Massive trading activities were possible in the Powerplay stage.
Considering the originally released lineups, the Tallawahs' choice to field, and the large selection of Stats (for example, see the Amazon Warriors' NRR ratio of circa 1.725 versus the Tallawahs' NRR ratio of circa 0.788), I wasn't convinced that the starting odds were that accurate. Therefore the Model suggested careful slight market attacks in the first 6 Overs and heavier ones in the next interval of 6, maximum of 9 Overs. To my surprise, the death bowling Overs after the 15th Over were rejected by the Model.
Naturally, no model is 100 percent accurate, but everyone's goal is to constantly improve their model over time.
Practically, some opening positions were raised from let's say xxx to xxxxx (conditionally) due to Mohammad Amir's manner of early attack in 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 Ov. Naturally, the calculation of the probability of Amir's wicket wasn't so precise, I awaited it somewhere after the 5th Over, that's why the situation in the 0.6 Over (Anderson bowled by Amir) gave me a trade surplus in advance, the cash was reinvested in a new series of carefully selected market positions. However, the protective stop loss points were immediately shortened according to the current Model set-up and moved to the interval of (8-th - 10-th) Over, plus plenty of other conditions, of course.
The next string of Fours hit till the end of the Powerplay (Shai Hope & Saim Ayub on the strike, Shamar Springer & Imad Wasim at the bowling attack) gave me an early opportunity to liquidate 80 percent of the exposition, according to the current setting of the Model.
During the next Overs until the Strategic Timeout around the 10th Over, both captains Imran Tahir & Brandon King, waiting for the Death Overs, ordered gaming style something like Game Theory Optimal and the market odds changed in very tight intervals (for example, Tallawahs were priced between 2.3 - 2.6 or something). So liquidating the last 20 percent of the market positions was optimal, keeping in mind the current profit was much more than predicted and some future risks in death Overs (Warriors batting portion) and Tallawahs batting portion later.

I have a question for those who model the T20 Caribbean Premier League (if they're in that Forum):
Was trading in Death Overs Stage (after 15th Ov) reasonable here, having in mind the moving of Jamaica Tallawahs' odds range from 2.3 - 2.6 intervals to circa 3.2 at the moment of Azam Khan's catching by Brooks at 19.4 Ov? Or brilliant Imran Tahir's wicket-taking (Taylor) at that age (44) at 5.6 in the second part? But the full complex estimation of the full risk components of those trading balances is not possible, in my opinion...

Addendum: I think South Africa is below par, ignoring Imran Tahir at the Bowling Department due to his age.
I just remembered Roger Milla (Cameroon) and his goal in World Cup 1994 (Soccer) at the age of 42...

The 2nd ODI, India vs the Aussies at the moment.

Although the main market value was gone shortly after Ruturaj Gaikwad was caught by Alex Carey and the new duo Shubman Gill & Shreyas Iyer started their heavy batting attack, I'm going to change some improvements in terms of additional market entries provided that:
- The new revised AUS target according to the DLS is in my calculated range if another rain stop happened;
- Lost Overs after the rain stoppage aren't so many (reasonable interval and prediction of future stop today);
- Both David Warner & Marnus Labuschagne start at a stable quota of above 140 S/R for the calculated time period of X Overs before any batsman fails;
- Accepted odds in a different pre-calculated range other than this nonsense at the moment;
- Others.

I am so curious about the Indian bowling strategy from now on. That's the key I think, if the shortened overs are above a given quota. What about the market positions in the case of a possible Shami's low and Thakur's high plus some late wickets, and later Ashwin's decisions...

Remember, that's Indore and statistically, many runs are possible here at that ground...

Some performance nuances of today's model settings, India vs Australia 2nd ODI today:

The conditions, according to the Model for opening additional market positions after the Indore rain delay mentioned in the previous post did not appear at all. The agencies were doing well, the odds were stacked against the players.

Only pre-match market positions aggregated at cash level X and heavy trading activities before the Gill & Iyer duo's atomic attack shortly after Ruturaj Gaikwad's wicket (caught by Carey off Hazlewood's bowling) at a total of Y cash was possible under the current Model settings today.

Well, despite the good profit, plenty of errors were detected in the long-time Model and I'm pretty aware of them before the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, starting on October 5th in Ahmedabad (England vs New Zealand). Some experiments and future tests are needed to fix them.

Big advantages of today's settings:
- A very fair pre-estimation of Sean Abbott, Alex Carey, Shubman Gill, Ravichandran Ashwin and Shreyas Iyer's performance today. Priceless!
- Odds discrepancies caught, therefore value caught before disappearing.
- And so on.

Disadvantages of today's settings:
- Swapped the predicted performance of Shami and Thakur in the wrong direction;
- Underestimation of stability of odds steam (second half of India's building score in their batting portion);
- Wrong assumption regarding Steven Smith's role;
- Despite the almost perfect prediction of David Warner's attack, non-precise pre-estimation of his S/R; The same for Labuschagne;
- And so on.

Any market participants here and their impressions?

The Caribbean Premier League 2023, The Grand Finale Guyana Amazon Warriors vs Trinbago Knight Riders has just started.

I lack free time for various in-depth analyses for the CPL Final today and some simplifications are applied here in compiling my pre-match odds.

In my opinion, the Amazon Warriors are much stronger than the Knight Raiders in terms of collective potential and usually the captain Imran Tahir combines the parts of the team quite well. Also, during the regular season, the Warriors were smarter on the pitch and beat the Knight Riders twice in brilliant games, I mean those held on the 6th and on the 17th of September. I have watched the on-field behavior of both teams closely and do not support the agencies' published pre-match odds regarding this advantage in favor of the Riders.

However, from this point on, additional information is incorporated into the odds against Warriors from my end. The only Amazon Warriors loss during the regular season was vs Saint Lucia Kings by seven wickets and 15 balls remaining! Additionally, in Qualifier 1 they lost vs Knight Riders in a similar way, by 7 Wkts, and 11 balls remaining. Those two heavy losses didn't correspond at all to their dominance and their excellent Net Run Rate of 1.755 (the Knight Riders are far behind, quota of 0.903). A red flag here... And much more technical and tactical information from the entire season so far has been included in the compiled odds for the Amazon Warriors & the Knight Riders.

I foresee three or four main scenarios in the trading plan when the game goes live. For reasons of simplicity, some negligible scenarios below a given percentage probability are removed today.

All of the live trading plans include close watching and estimation of Imran Tahir's tactical decision as a captain especially versus Chadwick Walton, Tahir's bowling behavior, the tactical decision of Kieron Pollard on how exactly to stop the Warriors machine, and so forth, and so forth. Also, the performance rating of both Sunil Narine and Andre Russell as a rating of the Trinbago Knight Riders team as a whole has been elevated today due to an additional trigger.

Let's see what happens.

After that steam, exceeded my expectations (5 Wkts for 6.6 Ov), Russell had an impossible task as a batsman.
At that moment, the "underdogs" (according to the agencies) Guyana Amazon Warriors moved from 2.6 to below 1.15 odds, Imran Tahir's economy rate is circa 2.00, with one wicket achieved (Andre Russell removed in 9.3 Ov)...

ICC World Cup 2023, the opening match England vs New Zealand in Ahmedabad has started.

It is very strange that the ICC World Cup 2019 final is the opening game of the ICC World Cup 2023 today… That's fine, but it is very outrageous of the ICC that the same umpire who wrongly awarded six runs in favor of England in the 2019 final instead of five runs is among the umpires today. It cost the Kiwis the 2019 title.
I think Kumar Dharmasena is a decent man, he had no video replays available and he gave his best in these working conditions without video inspection available to the referee. After the match, seeing the video replays, he admitted the mistake, only a decent person behaves like that. So the problem is somewhere in the ICC. Was there pressure at any level for England as hosts to be world champions in 2019? Why exactly was Kumar Dharmasena not allowed to use the video verification system by ICC? Why did the ICC hide behind this umpire its responsibility in 2019? Why is the ICC adding further stress to the England and New Zealand teams and fans by reassigning that umpire for this match today? Why is the ICC adding extra stress today for Kumar Dharmasena himself?

There were various things introduced in the settings for today's Model. For example:
- My deep estimation of chaos introduced by the ICC;
- The lack of Kane Williamson today. Very pity for the Cricket lovers!
- The pre-estimation of the batting duo Joe Root & Jonny Bairstow;
- The pre-estimated tactics by Tom Latham as a Captain today.
- The pre-estimation of Devon Conway in the batting attack.
- Sam Curran's exact likelihood of reaching Wickets today.
-And dozens of other factors, of course.

Let's see what happens.