Arbusers

Wow! Almost the same pattern as seen in the 2023 Asian Games Cricket tournament in China. I mean not only Ravi Bishnoi here, of course…

If Khan & Patel fail the bowling task at the current state of 7 Wickets in hand for the Aussies, some points are possible for late Aussie attack, of course. Why not?
Let's see what happens.

That's it!
The reserve Indian bowling department vs "need 21off 6" in the last Ov vs the World ODI Champion...
That match in Guwahati moved to the top Cricket Classics matches cases in my head... Bravo, the Aussies!

Bharat vs the Aussies, 4th T20 International in Raipur now.

Minutes ago I spotted a very rare occasion - India losing three batsmen for only 15 bowling deliveries.
That fact, combined with those facts:
- the high potential partnership (but not yet matured one) between Rinku Singh & Ruturaj Gaikwad has been pre-estimated cautiously in motion;
- The today's bowling tactics by Australia so far (including the big diversity of current bowlers with very different bowling performances in terms of economy rate and wicket-taking abilities);
forced me to make urgent re-evaluations of the trading plan.

I await Rinku Singh's attempts to make some explosive Boundaries as in Kolkata Knight Riders, at the end of the Aussies' Death Bowling stage.

Let's see what happens...

The amazing game rally in the 19th and 20th Over was so exciting from the sporting point of view not only due to the five wickets taken by the brand new Aussie bowling tactics. I also was interested in the reactions of the Indians' lower batting order today, when they were pressed to finish at a quota of at least 200 runs.
Those two final Overs gave me a lot of useful sporting impressions, that might be used in future Model settings.
But when it comes to the Cricket markets, those two Overs weren't so dynamic. The markets went bonkers between Rinku's Four in 16.4 and Sharma's dismissal in 18.4 Ov.

Any sporting / market opinion, if anyone has participated?

New Zealand's Super Smash (Ladies & Men tournaments), new season is in progress.

Both Otago teams (Volts & Sparks) are separated in different testing projects due to the predicted exceptional season finish in January and February 2023 and luckily a lot of value was caught according to the Model's tune-up months ago.

However, no triggers have been generated at all regarding the specific Projects, involving the Otago Volts & Sparks teams so far (as of December 2023).
My observations about the general set of events (the Super Smash projects as a whole) have a few triggers these days, but the Asians offered too many unacceptable odds, so the value is not available through my current Model tune-ups. Hence, I have unknown errors so far. And yes, I'm aware that all Kiwis' domestic Cricket tournaments are very difficult to predict in general, but I'm wondering what exactly I'm missing and have to start additional testing for unknown errors.

Minutes ago, a specific post-analysis (Otago Volts) was finished and I'm goin' to build some new experimental tune-ups for the clash Otago vs Auckland. Why? While the on-pitch-events in the first clash Volts vs Firebirds weren't so unusual at all (remember Volts batted first and built the hypothetical defendable target of 161), in the second game, their weaknesses against Wellington's Bowling Dept were frightening. My initial intention here is to give a real pre-estimation of the Volts' coaching tactical correction, whether no more 4 Wkts and an economy rate much below 2.00 for one-man opposition bowling attacks against them would be possible anymore. Not to mention 47/All Out for 12.4 Ov...
The second intention is to predict the possibility of recovering the batting strength, let's say batsmen such as Jake Gibson ( XX points). In my opinion, we'll see a new batting order vs Auckland these days. Here I didn't build probabilities yet.
And so on, and so forth...

I'd love to read the point of view of the modelers, targeting NZ Cricket championships, if any.

The second T20I - The Kiwis vs Bangladesh clash will start in about six hours from now.

I was so impressed with Neesham's 48 on the Napier ground on 27th December. My statistical data pinpointed me that personal peak in Neesham's T20 batting effort so far.
If I were the Kiwis' coach, I'd put James Neesham higher than usual in the batting order today, and why not as an opening batsman? Apparently, my final trading plan will be built after announcing the initial line-ups, but generally, I didn't like the quality of play of the contemporary NZ batting order in Napier (and several ODIs vs Bangladesh as well).

I've got some clear ideas on how exactly the Bangladeshi bowling dept will strive to prolong their best performance in their NZ Tour Series (let's say YY conditional points), unless we see:
(1) Emergency batting order change for the New Zealand team, and
(2) Hypothetically modified batting tactics are in effect by NZ part.
If these two occasions happen, new reassessments would be immediately in effect.
In my opinion, the runs will not be restricted too low as it was in Napier. Another point incorporated in my chosen tune-ups in today's Model would be the right pre-estimation of whether or not the first batting team will reach the 185-run mark of the innings (unless we see some strange preparation on the pitch, but that's not very likely).
Additionally, I see an additional probability of changing some bowling tactics for the Kiwis. For example, depending on the current stage of the match, sacrificing some bowling quality and/or economy rate to pursue fast Wkts and more Wkts by one member (Tim Southee, Mitchell Santner etc), why not?

And so on...

arb12 wrote: ↑

Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:57 pm

The second T20I - The Kiwis vs Bangladesh clash will start in about six hours from now.

I was so impressed with Neesham's 48 on the Napier ground on 27th December. My statistical data pinpointed me that personal peak in Neesham's T20 batting effort so far.
If I were the Kiwis' coach, I'd put James Neesham higher than usual in the batting order today, and why not as an opening batsman? Apparently, my final trading plan will be built after announcing the initial line-ups, but generally, I didn't like the quality of play of the contemporary NZ batting order in Napier (and several ODIs vs Bangladesh as well).

I've got some clear ideas on how exactly the Bangladeshi bowling dept will strive to prolong their best performance in their NZ Tour Series (let's say YY conditional points), unless we see:
(1) Emergency batting order change for the New Zealand team, and
(2) Hypothetically modified batting tactics are in effect by NZ part.
If these two occasions happen, new reassessments would be immediately in effect.
In my opinion, the runs will not be restricted too low as it was in Napier. Another point incorporated in my chosen tune-ups in today's Model would be the right pre-estimation of whether or not the first batting team will reach the 185-run mark of the innings (unless we see some strange preparation on the pitch, but that's not very likely).
Additionally, I see an additional probability of changing some bowling tactics for the Kiwis. For example, depending on the current stage of the match, sacrificing some bowling quality and/or economy rate to pursue fast Wkts and more Wkts by one member (Tim Southee, Mitchell Santner etc), why not?

And so on...

Although the heavy rain in Mount Maunganui stopped today's game at the end of 11th Ov, there are some useful things to be discussed.

The announced starting Kiwis' line-up and their batting order for me were a big surprise. At that point, the published odds in the visiting team's favor revealed a very clear value.
Due to my recent observations, I tuned-up in today's Model, one or a maximum of two extremely good NZ batsmen and pre-defined percentage of possibility of mediocrity in terms of the overall New Zealanders' Run Rate variable at the end of their batting portion of the game, but due to my preliminary risk assessment, the Model triggers a certain margin of safety above the statistical nominal score in T20I format at that cricket ground i.e. 185 instead of data proven circa 170. So, the 185-run mark had to be as an additional in-play benchmark by my today's Stats Model, provided that the game wasn't canceled due to the rain...
Those and plenty of other well-chosen tune-ups gave me almost perfectly executed forecast of what was most likely on the pitch, but regretfully, the rain came and the game was abandoned...

Almost perfect performance, but I'm aware of two errors and one uncertainty, they have to be post-analyzed further:
- Error one - The predicted likelihood of Tim Seifert's reaching over 30 was too low. Reaching 43 was almost impossible according to my settings.
- Error 2 - I've expected something like above 7.5 Run Rate at that stage - middle Overs stage, before the attempt for acceleration at the Death Overs Stage, instead of the Kiwis' achieved batting 6.5 RR in the middle Overs...
- Uncertainty - despite the well-forecasted direction of moving on the market odds, the expected zone of market ticks was too different from the real one. Here I suspect the market overestimation in favor of pre-match pseudo-favorite New Zealand, despite their current sporting form and wrong selected tactics today, and also bad processing of the current Run Ratio data by my side...

And finally, if the rain had stopped today and the game had restarted at the moment of 72/2 (11 Ov), the official umpire DLS system would have announced a target for Bangladesh 46 for 5 chasing Overs, and 85 (10 Ov). My custom D/L calculated respectively targets of 44 (5 Ov) and 82 for a chase of 10 Ov.

(1) Given the batsmen available in the starting line-up today for the Bangladesh team, I think the hypothetical allowed game of chasing after the break-time, provided the target is achieved with 5 overs to go, bounded between the area of both the official DLS and my custom D/L target calculated from 44 to 46):
(1.1) τ(5)∈{44, ... , 46}
and if Bangladesh were allowed to chase 10 overs respectively:
(1.2) τ(10)∈{82, ... , 85}
then
(2) I've calculated that today the probability of achieving τ(5) is much more than 51 percent, and this highlights the exceptional value for the away team's market odds before the game is abandoned.
As for the τ(10) condition, things would be much more complicated for the final calculation due to the modeled probability of different bowling tactics of the home team for the large number of overs available to them, as I pointed out in my previous posting. I've no free time to model and calculate all the possible scenarios and relevant odds under the τ(10) condition...

Your opinions and suggestions?

Happy New Year to all the Cricket pundits, gurus and passionate fans around the World!

First, a clarification regarding my previous post about the SuperSmash T20 modeling. Here I was referring to the leading probability scenario emitted by my Model if the Volts after the toss hypothetically had to hit first to build it, and the most important thing here was also the model returned the same amazing probability of circa 160 runs to be scored in the chase!

Second, a very small and quick update on the progress of my two Otago projects:
- Otago Sparks vs Hearts - that match was easily forecasted by the Model. However, I didn't see any value in the published pre-match odds, so it's questionable in the long run...
- Otago Volts vs Auckland Aces - a very interesting challenge. Why? Great value was captured in the published odds, and so far OK.
But I was aware of the following - Otago lost 4 Wickets till 5.2 Ov and my settings were silent here. Well, other errors here were poor set-ups for Jake Gibson and Martin Guptill, leading to unwanted directions.
Despite the winning tune-ups overall (remember the New Zealand Cricket forecasting is one of the hardest), there are some unexpected leaks due to errors and many more tests are needed aiming for improved future fine tune-ups...

Overall OK.

What a wonderful show right now in South Africa!
MI Cape Town vs Joburg Super Kings, the SA20 Tournament.

Naturally, as today's Model settings expected at least a single Tahir's Wkt, after play resumed after a rain break and the game of 20 overs for each side was shortened to 8 overs, Imran Tahir took 2 Wickets within 7 bowling deliveries vs Rickelton & Livingstone.
I personally loaded my market guns with only one wicket taken by Imran Tahir but moments ago he surpassed that expectation despite his age of almost 45 years. The probability of 1 Wkt taken for him was more than 51 percent…

The MoneyLine odds rally (MI v SuperKings) at this point was the same as when two very big favorites were ahead in long-distance horse races, for example, the Chepstow 2m3½f.

Well, I'm not surprised by du Plooy and Faf du Plessis' above-200 Strike/Rate, but I didn't expect Kagiso Rabada's 18 Economy Rate. Here I mean 2 overs after the break.

I haven't seen a match effectively decided after the second Over after the break in a long time, no trading is possible far before the game end.
The side effect of raining Fours and Sixes on the pitch...

By the way, has anyone watched the Aussies vs West Indies Test in Brisbane? I can't believe the home team lost that Test.

Those selectors from Betfair Exch and other Exchanges are sometimes so weird.
Few days of specific preparation for the BPL live-action Khulna Tigers vs Sylhet Strikers. I was ready with excellent Stats and graphs for Jason Holder, Shai Hope, Evin Lewis, Ben Cutting, Samit Patel, Harry Tector, Wayne Parnell and co, awaiting the starting lineups, but the Exchanges decided not to cover this match in-play.
Does anyone know what exactly is causing the Exchanges to miss multi-million dollar turnover here?

By the way, at the moment the opening match in Women IPL Delhi vs Mumbai is very good (I'm impressed by Capsey & Ismail so far, awaiting Jemimah Rodrigues' better Stats), and also watching at the same moment the PSL Peshawar vs Multan (both Willey & Mir have almost perfect bowling, Babar Azam not in the best form now).

Again, I have additional displays to watch and trade BPL's Khulna Tigers vs Sylhet Strikers, but so-called Exchanges are silent in-play here...

Women IPL, the Mumbai Indians' batting portion of the game,
The second delivery by Marizanne Kapp and she moved Delhi Capitals' odds! Excellent market exit is possible much earlier than expected! But better open new weighted positions.