Arbusers

PSL, Kings vs Qalandars now,
I await very soon the next step from Fakhar Zaman. Stable odds behavior now.

IPL Ladies, Mumbai Indians vs Giants now, I wonder what exactly caused that difference in the bowling performance between Matthews and Ismail. Ismail has strong ball speed, but today the technique is slightly different. I spotted the concerned face of MI captain Kaur looking for an improved bowling solution...
The odds movement is so good at the moment, Gujarat Giants' RR is circa 10...

IPL, Gujarat's batting shots for Sixes as a trajectory 66m long and 22m high and... Mumbai Indians and Gujarat Giants exchanged initial odds well before the end of the innings. Even much stronger positions in terms of one-direction odds.
Take-profit positions exactly now are advisable for those, seeking low risk. Other market positions are possible, as well.

PSL, Karachi Kings vs Qalandars circa odds of Evens now.
What a chance for additional market entries for a lower risk!

IPL Ladies, Mumbai vs Gujarat,
Ismail's bowling was ruthless at 16.4 Ov. The achieved Wckt by her was late but some older positions are nicely backed just now in the predicted probability for that odds-rally so far!

PSL, Karachi Kings vs Lahore Qalandars,
due to expected Wiese's behavior, it's better to skip now and prepare for the chasing.

Unique Odds movements in Death Overs in both matches!

- Kaur's late heavy batting attacks and the risk component taken will certainly be analyzed in depth thereafter by the Stats. And what a sense of humor on the part of the Delhi stadium managers to introduce two Super Soppers after the 18th Ov when the rain of Fours and Sixes from Harmanpreet seemed unstoppable to me at that point.

- The same market behavior in Karachi stadium, the Lahore team bowlers almost killed the Kings' speed within the middle Overs and the markets went bonkers, but how about the Death Overs after the Malik & Khan batting duo attack? Here the risk component was much below those of Harmanpreet Kaur, but the odds compilers and their followers didn't think that way!

What brilliant IPL and PSL dramas we're blessed to watch!

Well, what an extremely big chance in terms of pre-defined odds is open now in the UAE vs Scotland T20I format at the moment!
Suri is Out, 3 for 1 for UAE in the second Ov. against Scotland's unexpected 121 for 8!

81 runs in 57 available balls with 5 wickets in hands is very possible for the PSL & IPL big teams for sure, so...

The world's most exclusive sports tournament IPL is back!
Let's see the start of the 2024 edition in a few minutes!
After the brilliant IPL Ladies 2024 title, achieved by Smriti Mandhana's Royal Challengers Bengaluru, won days ago, let's see the Virat Cohli's Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs MS Dhoni's Chennai Super Kings. The actual captains now are Faf du Plessis and Ruturaj Gaikwad, but we know exactly who the historical legends of these teams are.
I'm extremely curious about the actual sporting form and presence of Rachin Ravindra in the IPL.

IPL 2024, SunRisers Hyderabad vs Mumbai Indians,
What an encounter in Hyderabad at the moment, courtesy of Sky Sports Cricket!!!

I remembered Chris Gayle's 175 runs for the Royal Challengers Bangalore (now Royal Challengers Bengaluru) circa ten years ago for the famous old record of 263 for 5 vs Pune.
If I only knew that in today's match the SRH team would score 277 for 3, I would apply completely new tune-ups for today's Model.

When it comes to my tune-ups for today, I know what exactly behavior on the pitch would like to see the coach Daniel Vettori not only from his old team Royal Challengers Bangalore, but today from Sunrisers Hyderabad. That's why I calculated the probabilities and risks for the price corridors for SRH today (Starting price above 2 till 1.7; 1.7 till 1.9 and 1.9 till 1.5), and applied several take profit points. Again, I had no idea that the amazing 277/3 was coming and missed much more big profit. Also, Jasprit Bumrah's 9.00 economy rate with no taken Wckts is an enigma for me.
Additionally, I don't remember the amount of circa 100 million matched on Betfair Exch during the first batting part in IPL, before the break time, far before the match ended.

What a batting start for Mumbai Indians, the batsmen Ishan Kishan/ Rohit Sharma accelerated both over 250 SR in the initial three Overs!

Let's see what happens.

The tilt of some custom graphics has alerted me to the delay of some things that are very likely to appear on the pitch in Hyderabad today. So the next market attacks were done now for lower risk than usual.
Additionally, if Hardik Pandya touches the predicted by my Model level within the next three Overs, many more heavy market ins/outs are possible even at the better Reward/Risk ratio.

IPL, Sunrisers vs Chennai in Hyderabad now,

Why exactly do today's Model tune-ups find good value here?

The latest evolution of the well-known style of the coach Daniel Vettori. From what I have seen lately, Vettori very well implemented the risk dispersion between the bigger core of leading batsmen while the old weaknesses are still valid. Similar to the times when he coached the Royal Challengers Bengaluru years ago, that comes alongside the items of unavoided risk, according to the specific power-batting style, ordered by him. In my opinion, each of the risk components of the Rx array as a whole, and also each R element of that array, processed by my today's Model settings, generated indirectly the very interesting probabilities for today's Sunrisers' batting outcome vs Chennai's bowling & fielding. Let me mention that the bowling department of Chennai Super Kings can be flexible in adapting to the current things on the pitch (I see the latest work of the coach Stephen Fleming and his orders) but in my opinion, the stability quotient here is lower than it should be and I'm curious what exactly approach will Fleming choose here today! So, the Model calculates those related probabilities too.

When it comes to the batting power of Super Kings, I am witnessing a second consecutive IPL season for Ajinkya Rahane at the CSK team, which is playing out very differently from Rahane's failure at Kolkata Knight Riders. I think Fleming took some calculated risks to put Rahane as a non-classical T20 player in the team's top batting order without pressuring him to impose riskier batting unless the top order underperforms by counting the batting end target.
Also, a good initial IPL performance for Rachin Ravindra so far in his IPL season debut, but I await Vettori's bowling tactical ideas on the early dismissal of Ravindra and Gaikwad and if that happens, Rahane's pre-match calculated probabilities for further acceleration or not will be one of the key moments in the outcome of the match today.
Additionally, I had a lot of other factors in mind when I calculated true odds for today's match - Markram, Klaasen and so on.

Let's see what happens.

Your opinions?
Thanks.

The amazing IPL tournament, the very interesting "bottom-fishes-derby" Mumbai Indians vs Delhi Capitals has started.
I'm very puzzled by the pre-match odds published by the oddsmakers and hence chasing the hypothetical windfall, i.e. the unexpected hidden value (even before the toss), a gift to all IPL market lovers, is the aim of market guns now.

Could you believe that the Indians vs former Daredevils are ultimate and penultimate respectively in the IPL points table as of the 7th of April, before that "derby" starts?

Also, the team above them in the table, the enigmatic Royal Challengers Bengaluru has achieved an NRR of (-0.843) so far, while Delhi & Mumbai have got (-1.347) and (-1.423) ratio respectively.

These and other data and statistics are extremely useful inputs to the IPL 2024 Model and very interesting triggers were generated according to today's tune-ups. Other reliable inputs were also processed by the Model and these were the basis for probability calculations converted into the pre-match odds for today.

For example, Ricky Ponting's very interesting decisions and determining when they can work well for his team - remember what happened vs Chennai Super Kings, despite the oddsmakers' prognosis.
Therefore, the opposite moments of Ponting's decisions' bad implementations are well defined also!

Another task was the need to very accurately pre-assess Mark Boucher's unstable work so far (I don't mean bad work here!) and also accurately pre-assess the difference in Hardik Pandya's captaincy compared to Rohit Sharma's approach in the past. So, there are probabilities for given coach/captain decisions in some moments, that could show us the hidden possibilities in effect.

The most difficult task for me was building the probability of Mumbai Indians overcoming the bad run (three consecutive losses at the start).
My Model processed the past data: 8 consecutive fails at the start (IPL'22, worst team IPL'22), 3 consecutive fails at the start (IPL'18, 5th at the end), 4 consecutive fails at the start (IPL'15, IPL Champions for 2015!!!), 5 consecutive fails at the start (IPL'14, PlayOffs reached).

Additionally, the explosive start for the MI team today at Wankhede in their Powerplay gave some options to hedge/additional market entries, according to the chosen Trading Plan.

Wish you good trading.

By the way, the recovery rate of pre-match odds >0.8 spotted a few overs ago in the first part of the game, the short plateau time thereafter, followed by the 24-run blasts between 16.4 and 17.2 (Ahmed/Nortje's deliveries to David/Pandya) weren't the most likely things between the Middle stage/Beginning of Death stage according to the today's Model, but in my opinion, a very quick re-evaluation has recalculated the value probabilities in additional trading market entries whose endpoints are based on the Prithvi Shaw & David Warner's pre-estimated start, followed by the early behavior of the Number three batsman for Delhi (I spot some uncertainty here for some reason).
Regardless of the positions described above, an additional closing of a very specific trade position after earlier market entries (made immediately after MI's Powerplay) is much better to be postponed after MI's 42 runs from the last 10 balls - much earlier than expected - here I recommend holding that position at least ten Ov.
What kind of game!

Apparently, captain Hardik Pandya has re-tuned Jasprit Bumrah's bowling timing for some reason. That should be considered thoroughly in the Model.
By the way, the Shaw-Porel partnership was ended by Bumrah, but the time of the 2nd Wckt fall raises many questions from now on.

With Delhi's 6 Wckts in hand and the new leading batsman Stubbs after Porel's dismissal, for the Capitals as a whole and for Stubbs on an individual level, the odds of achieving any given runs can be determined, for the appropriate markets. 4 Overs to go.
Let's see what happens.

Minutes before Tristan Stubbs reached 50 runs, the relevant odds to reach this were pure value.
Also, I can't explain why the MI captain didn't send Bumrah to bowl in the 17th Ov. So, Stubbs' 15 runs scored for three deliveries rocked some markets, even MoneyLine to grab some percentages.
At the moment, Stubbs is at a quota of 65 and Delhi is pursuing 200...