Arbusers

IPL'24, Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans at Ekana stadium now,

Considering the corridors of the odds in the first part in some time intervals were around the Evens level, plenty of mitigated-risk-entry positions were possible (after some reasonable triggers, of course), the planned closing endpoints during the second part are chosen and based on things such as:
- Highest total successfully chased so far - overpassed that quota in terms of building target by the home team in the first half, but that's not a guarantee for them at all. The probability of setting the new highest total successfully chased here today - is >>XX %, but the pre-estimated behavior of Titans' performance in the Powerplay, Middle Overs and Death stages is dynamic in tight ranges. However, the Death stage's additional risk component is still not firmly determined, let's see the GT Powerplay and other things several Overs thereafter.
- LSG's non-optimal home ground preparation in detail - here I wonder about the behavior of some members of LSG's bowling department in the middle Overs stage. This will be crucial, so very early closing of big percentages of the current positions may occur.
- Others.

Thus, based on the above and other things, immediately after the Titans' Powerplay plus some additional Overs from that point, the closing positions will be in effect, no matter that Titans' market positions were in steam before Shubman Gill's dismissal by Thakur.

Surprisingly, most things evolved within a few minutes.
Titans Powerplay - GT odds were under steam till the 5.5 Ov (from below Evens to circa 1.3), the last GT Powerplay batting appearance - Gill Out and GT were priced wide ranges circa 1.5, The start of the Middle Ov - GT are priced above five after the middle overs LSG bowling by Bishnoi in 7.2 and by Krunal Pandya in 8.1 & 8.5.
WOW!

One of the all-time IPL classics has begun - Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders at Chepauk!

Overall, fine-tuning the right Model regarding that derby is one of the most difficult tasks among all IPL Models. My decision for today's match is to experiment with much more value positions in relevant markets and less trading activity in other markets with closer stop positions, based on what I spotted in all seven games of both teams in IPL 2024 so far.
There were many nuances that let me calculate true probabilities and also helped shape the final blueprint for the respective markets today. Among them are:
- It seems to me, that Knight Riders' coach Chandrakant Pandit finally realized that practicing some elements of the "Bazball"-style, invented by his predecessor in KKR Brendon McCullum, is much more useful for KKR not only technically on the pitch, but also as a team spirit than his own working methods he is known for.
Neither the KKR team nor the Indian cricket community needs Knight Riders' low winning percentage of 42.85 and the seventh position in both IPL'22 and IPL'23!
KKR in the first three matches of IPL'24 showed us some shades of former KKR under McCullum in IPL'2021 when they finished second at the end, with a winning percentage of 52.94, losing to Super Kings in the big final.
- Perfect current form for Andre Russell, much better in IPL 2024 than in 2023 in every element of the Cricket!
- The right pre-estimations of Phil Salt, plus the classic West Indian duo of Andre Russell & Sunil Narine are giving us the basis for short-term KKR performance, that's why I think Super Kings' coach Stephen Fleming will adapt today's CSK tactics to break the KKR team, trying to restrict these three players. If that is successful, there are many opportunities for CSK.
- I'm trying to guess how exactly Fleming is going to try to solve two big problems:
First - the absence of Devon Conway and accelerating the batting when needed (CSK lost vs Delhi Capitals due to that);
Second - the unstable bowling dept.

And others, of course.

The corresponding probabilities were calculated.

Your opinions?

Interestingly, I spotted moments ago former captain MS Dhoni from his WicketKeeper's zone instructing some fielders to move themselves in different zones.
The Captain's habits are not forgotten.

IPL, PBKS vs SRH now,

Great opportunities and good liquidity were caused by markets oscillating circa Evens-similar odds. X XXX and XX XXX positions are quickly covered by the market.

I think the probability of a perfect storm is coming after the break, provided that PBKS tries to successfully transition to the monstrous "KL Rahul - Chris Gayle" style of Powerplay under their old name KXIP. Does anyone remember this during the IPL 2018?

There are two problems for PBKS to do this today - the historical instability of PBKS and the tactical mind of opposing coach Daniel Vettori. Will they overcome them?

Let's see what happens...

What a game that was!

Punjab Kings needed 29 off the last six deliveries of that encounter, and they scored 26 vs Jaydev Unadkat's bowling, WOW!

Interestingly, my Model triggers a very high probability (>> 51%) of starting a rebirth of the monstrous "Rahul-Gayle"-style batting storm, like Kings XI Punjab in IPL 2018, but at the Powerplay stage. It was my error, this thing actually happened on the very last Over!
Just a PBKS/KXIP shocking thing as usual seen again and again in every IPL edition.

The Model will be re-tuned accordingly in order to precise some future probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed, though. KXIP will always be KXIP.

IPL, Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals now,

Very often the PBKS are KXIP reincarnated in their worst batting part and I'm wondering what exactly is the reason behind the poor performance, especially on the pitch in Mohali.
I remember batting failures at their home ground in Mohali even in the KXIP era of Chris Gayle, Ravichandran Ashwin, past presence of Sam Curran, Marcus Stoinis, KL Rahul etc. I know the Mohali pitch is often prepared for big numbers of Runs and a big number of Boundaries to be scored and even so the opposite bowlers very often are much better than home batsmen.

Additionally, I'm impressed by the IPL debut of Tanush Kotian for the RR team. Very good and brave decision of the coach Kumar Sangakkara to put him as an Opening batsman alongside Jaiswal today. Two Fours vs Kagiso Rabada and one Four vs Singh for a typical Bowler is an excellent IPL debut.

The match has ended and let me drop an addendum to the posting above,

Despite the outstanding bowling effort of PBKS at the end of that game, even if the PBKS team had won today, I think the total number of Runs built by them before the break did not match the Mohali pitch settings. That's why some specific elements of their games during last year triggered a big value for the observers.
Also, the last monstrous live value triggered today was a very risky situation after two consecutive Dot balls, bowled by Singh to Hetmyer in 19.1 & 19.2 almost at the end when the MoneyLine market suddenly was moved to Evens, but thankfully the long-term Stats for both players Hetmyer/Singh gave some probabilities and helped mitigate the risk.

Eden Gardens, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants now,

For some reason, I focus on the middle overs in KKR batting and not the Powerplay. In my opinion, some hypothetical hidden value could emerge much earlier than the Death Overs stage today, and I'm not targeting the ML core market at all here.
Some additional secondary market entries/closes should be in the Death stage of KKR batting, provided that Andre Russell is about to cover the pre-estimated batting strike range today.

The most vivid IPL classic Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings has just started at the Wankhede.

Due to the lack of time to build proper reliable modeling for this fight (according to the Kelly Criterion), the final solution is to limit market attacks before the match and goin' into mostly pseudo-cold trading mode when the match starts plus limited live value positions when the risk components are acceptable.

Some stages of my focus today:
- Mark Boucher and Hardik Pandya's decision on when exactly Jasprit Bumrah will bowl;
- Stephen Fleming today's decision on the Super Kings' slightly unstable bowling dept and relevant bowling tactics involved today, I'm particularly curious about the Kings' bowling approach, especially against Rohit Sharma;
- I suspect that if Ajinkya Rahane is not removed before he reaches 40 runs scored today, Fleming's additional tactical order will be in place.
I remembered exactly what happened at Wankhede on April 8 2023 during IPL'23.
- I expect some risky changes in MI's Fielding dept roles in order to restrict the Super Kings batsmen at some stage, but will CSK be able to score more runs in these instances? This depends on CSK's current partnership and that is a perfect time for appearing hypothetical value;
-And so forth.

Let's see what happens in that El Superclásico.

Addendum: By the time I posted the previous opinion, Rahane was removed by Coetzee, so please ignore my opinion on Rahane today.

As a workaround for the Model tune-ups after Rahane's very early dismissal today, probability calculations for possible risky additional acceleration for the Ravindra-Gaikwad partnership are in effect.

That worked, despite the incomplete research!
Mumbai lost the initial impulse after Coetzee's success vs Ajinkya and the ML odds were shifted, closer to Evens at some point.
New market attacks under fire.

Despite the much clearer technical analysis compared to the start of the match, I'm much more interested in the likelihood of continuing CSK's next two or three batting partnerships, given that Bumrah has performed only two Bowling Ov so far…

I didn't think that after the surgery last year, MS Dhoni would play today like in his youth.
Excellent MS Dhoni style as a finisher at Wankhede today, and the audience applauded his entry in 19.3, three Sixes thereafter, astonishing Strike Rate of 500... I spotted Lasith Malinga and the rest of the coaching staff's reaction on the MI bench.
That's why the agencies moved offered odds for MI from circa 1.9 to circa 2.3 at the end of the first part.
I remember the Wankhede roar in the 2011 World Cup final when Dhoni scored 91 vs Lasith Malinga's Sri Lanka, and India became the World Champion...
Despite today's bowling tactics by CSK are not 100 percent clear so far, it is preferable to leave cold trading and attack some value positions based on what is seen so far.

What a game!