Arbusers

What a surprising and also top-notch game it was today!
I don't believe anyone across the Pond or elsewhere could have modeled and calculated the correct probability of what happened at the Wankhede today - the outstanding performance of the two older heroes Rohit Sharma and MS Dhoni, all key CSK bowling techniques in the middle Overs (except the 11th Ov.), Sharma's 105 off 63 balls, who somehow successfully avoided heavy performing Pathirana (4 wickets taken by him today) and also the margin at the end was exactly equal to Dhoni's runs today, 20 off four balls!
Here I'm reminded of "Walk Of Life" by Dire Straits.

Ireland vs Pakistan, 3rd T20 International now,

95 for 1 in 10th Ov,
I think that 9.5 R/R and also Tucker's half-century aren't properly estimated and the game came in phase between first and 2nd T20 in Dublin a few days earlier. Thus, massive additional market entries are possible, supporting the pre-match estimations, covered mainly by today's Pakistani initial line-up.
I think the second Wckt achieved by Afridi vs Balbirnie should be considered negligible unless Harry Tector fails much earlier than expected.
Tucker 64 R, Tector 10 R now, Ali & Wasim are zero Wckts at the moment - 12.4 Ov, let's see what happens.
The Exch odds aren't real at the moment.

Harry Tector survived while Afridi removed Rock (14.5) and Wasim removed Tucker earlier (13.4).
The Moneyline market changed, but I spotted some things from Tector in Barbados Royals years ago, and also in Sylhet Strikers in 2024, so pre-defined value is possible in the relevant markets.
A tricky game so far in terms of on-the-fly modeling, indeed...

By the way, in the IPL'2024 Delhi vs LuckNow, in 15th Ov the home team lost the ML favorable odds (ML) but Ricky Ponting's influence is vivid as usual, so the Tristan Stubbs' Six is confirming the long-term "prognostic" play, so further Fours are more than expected.
Massive market entries are recommended at a very low-risk factor just now.
Additionally, I don't support Rishabh Pant's starting position number today in the batting order... He's removed, but I think he must play most of the games as Opener...

Tector survived till the end of the batting portion of the game for Ireland at a quota very close (but not equal) to the expected one - 30 R, 150 S/R.
Now the main task is to model the Babar Azam/ Fakhar Zaman expected runs, but I prefer to add some additional attention to the Irish Bowling attack on Ayub & Rizwan. Guess why.
Despite the captaincy of Rizwan being different than Azam's one, the Model triggers are almost the same today.

IPL T20, Delhi vs LuckNow, the second part is underway,
I have a bit of a problem modeling the game after the break due to Deepak Hooda's floating ratings for his actual game so far versus the projected.
The preliminary assessment of the KL Rahul / Quinton De Kock duo is expected to be uneventful. But if Hooda is in the lineup between Marcus Stoinis and Nicholas Pooran, the variation of Hooda's performance on the pitch (X vs XX Expected Points) should be expected to some extent, provided that Delhi Capitals' bowling department plays a calm defensive style and nothing more than the 208 runs achieved by Delhi earlier.

I'd love to read your opinions.

IPL, the Mumbai Indians vs LSG clash has just started,
Both teams are de-motivated in terms of not qualifying for the Top Four and the Playoffs, but after some analyses, I have a hypothesis - one of them is much more motivated for something pre-defined (but I could be wrong).
I personally think that the odds compilers have suggested starting odds whose implied probabilities are different from the calculated ones, assuming that today's experimental tune-ups behind my calculations reflect the hypothesis I have in mind, and the MI & LSG starting line-ups as well.
However, due to the risk of a wrong hypothesis, some positions are reduced plus protective stop losses at different points compared to the usual ones.
But these kinds of derbies (outside the Playoffs spots) are excellent testing grounds for different modeling things.

There's no way you could have overlooked the three Wickets for three MI's bowling deliveries in the interval {16.5, 17.1} and it's just the unexpected torpedo in the markets confirming the inevitable, giving some useful tenths of odds as a gift for us. What an unexpected scenario, providing us with unexpected value for the inevitable (remember Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah, Coetzee, Tilak Varma, Tim David are on the bench today despite needing them).
By the way, 214/6 for the visiting team is a challenge for the home team, despite the initial odds...

You might be better off taking a safe trade profit started with the pre-match offered by Pinny over 2.00 (for the away team) through the hedge to the current under 1.7 for LSG offered by other agencies (if you somehow haven't hedged this for a sure profit at odds under 1.6 on the break) if you're not a fan of roller coaster events. But I suggest you wait a few moments if you have modeled the next moves…

With the Wankhede's rain in mind, what exactly is your best-case scenario in today's trade if engaging the D/L method is required at some stage? Additional 1.1 Ov is needed for that, or the match will be declared No Result due to the rules. 3.5 Ov played so far after the break.

Well, LuckNow Super Giants overcame Mumbai Indians at Wankhede minutes ago.

Rohit Sharma was involved in the substitution, but the result was not too far from the expected interval.

I was impressed by the storm of despair, performed by Naman Dhir (62R, 221S/R at the end). When he entered (due to Wadhera's out) the hosts needed 16.286 RRR to win. His 4x4 and 5x6 within 28 balls gave some sporadic value opportunities on some exchanges against MI. Why? Due to wrong tactics from the very start and also the wrong initial Mumbai Indians' starting line-up.

In my opinion, Super Giants despite their poor game start today, just reacted accordingly to the nervousness of the MI team due to the game they needed to win to avoid the bottom of the points table, before the KXIP (a.k.a. PBKS) game vs SunRisers Hyderabad...

IPL 2024 Qualifier 1 will start in about an hour.

I consider Kolkata Knight Riders vs SunRisers Hyderabad as the final before the final - and also the same teams can meet again in the IPL Grande Finale if the losing team from the Qualifier 1 match wins the Qualifier 2 match. Thus, I consider loading much more conservative Model tune-ups for today, escaping the usual experiments.
The IPL T20 cricket fans have solid year-over-year observations on the Knight Riders and SunRisers, but you need to carefully factor into your Model the major game changes seen in IPL 2024 as a whole, never ever seen before in the IPL history. Implementing this one is one of the keys to success.

I also have the following in mind to build today's Model and try to determine the correct pre-match probabilities:
-The pre-assessment of coach Daniel Vettori's ability to overcome the very rapidly deteriorating momentum of the exceptional SunRisers' batting power when it comes against the tactics of a formidable bowling opposition.
In my opinion, Knights Riders coach Pandit will order two of his bowlers specifically against Travis Head & Abhishek Sharma, and that game flow will hypothetically produce entry points, based on the current spending of those bowling resources and time interval, needed to restrict the SunRisers' batting power to some extent.
I remember a very specific hard tactical game recently at Wankhede when Mumbai Indians sent Jasprit Bumrah (1 W, 5.75 E/R ) & Piyush Chawla (3 W, 8.25 E/R) and they restricted Head (less than a half-century for unstoppable Travis that day, 160 S/R) and also Abhishek Sharma at a quota of very low 68.75 S/R, the coach Vettori was late in his reaction, conceded heavy batting restriction, indirectly gave a pleasant target score for the Blue team (heavy error at Wankhede, as usual) and Suryakumar Yadav's Century at a quota of 200 S/R overcame SunRisers at the end.
- The best thing about Knight Riders in IPL 2024 is the change in mentality of coach Chandrakant Pandit, allowing some useful elements of the BazBall style. But I've spotted his stubbornness and I'm pretty sure he won't be copying Mumbai Indians coach Mark Boucher's byte-by-byte approach to trying to curb SRH's monstrous batting power. Instead, I simulated a few specific Knight Riders bowling duos and their hypothetical assignments that I believe Coach Pandit would have put against the SunRisers' Openers and the batting middle order, based on my observations of Pandit's tactics so far. That helped me determine some probabilities, but nothing is really guaranteed.
- Furthermore, I'm under the impression that one of these teams today is much more adapted to specifics in the pitch in Ahmedabad (one team's adaptiveness to the pitch specifics is extremely important for the game of Cricket), which hinted at a lot of useful things in today's trading plan.
- As mentioned here in that posting:

possible-to-beat-pinnacle-t9347/99449#p99449

the very recent estimation is required vs older data for the shortened variation in Sunil Narine's performance and the wider variation in Andre Russell's Bowling & Batting performance in very specific cases, as today.
Let's say, Narine's performance in interval (Y-1...Y...Y+1) while very often Dre Russ' one is similar to (Y-5...Y...Y+2).

- Others.

Let's see what happens...

I'm very surprised by the SunRisers' decision to bat first today.
Kolkata Knight Riders' heavy attack from Starc and Arora (and also indirectly aided by Andre Russell) helped eliminate most of the Sunrisers' heavier guns - Travis Head & Abhishek Sharma very early on, causing KKR's odds to drop in the interval (2 till 1.45) and massive market entries are possible if some things are expected by you to happen around the Middle Overs stage.
But the next KKR task is to restrict the SRH's RR to the comfortable one. The probability of Sunrisers' heavy attack from current >8 RR is quite high.
Let's see the Vettori reaction...

Now a quick re-evaluation is required on the fly according to the adopted trading plan to optimize pre-determined market positions to take profit if you trade. Four Wckts taken during the first Powerplay is not seen very often in the IPL playoffs... KKR are available at a quota of around 1.3 now in some outlets.
However, there is another possibility - additional market positions of moderate value could be opened, considering not only what has happened so far, but also the modeled forecast of the Middle Overs now, as well as the expected action of Sunrisers after the break. Also, keep in mind exactly which players are on the bench...
Enjoy watching the game!