Arbusers

What a surprising and also top-notch game it was today!
I don't believe anyone across the Pond or elsewhere could have modeled and calculated the correct probability of what happened at the Wankhede today - the outstanding performance of the two older heroes Rohit Sharma and MS Dhoni, all key CSK bowling techniques in the middle Overs (except the 11th Ov.), Sharma's 105 off 63 balls, who somehow successfully avoided heavy performing Pathirana (4 wickets taken by him today) and also the margin at the end was exactly equal to Dhoni's runs today, 20 off four balls!
Here I'm reminded of "Walk Of Life" by Dire Straits.

Ireland vs Pakistan, 3rd T20 International now,

95 for 1 in 10th Ov,
I think that 9.5 R/R and also Tucker's half-century aren't properly estimated and the game came in phase between first and 2nd T20 in Dublin a few days earlier. Thus, massive additional market entries are possible, supporting the pre-match estimations, covered mainly by today's Pakistani initial line-up.
I think the second Wckt achieved by Afridi vs Balbirnie should be considered negligible unless Harry Tector fails much earlier than expected.
Tucker 64 R, Tector 10 R now, Ali & Wasim are zero Wckts at the moment - 12.4 Ov, let's see what happens.
The Exch odds aren't real at the moment.

Harry Tector survived while Afridi removed Rock (14.5) and Wasim removed Tucker earlier (13.4).
The Moneyline market changed, but I spotted some things from Tector in Barbados Royals years ago, and also in Sylhet Strikers in 2024, so pre-defined value is possible in the relevant markets.
A tricky game so far in terms of on-the-fly modeling, indeed...

By the way, in the IPL'2024 Delhi vs LuckNow, in 15th Ov the home team lost the ML favorable odds (ML) but Ricky Ponting's influence is vivid as usual, so the Tristan Stubbs' Six is confirming the long-term "prognostic" play, so further Fours are more than expected.
Massive market entries are recommended at a very low-risk factor just now.
Additionally, I don't support Rishabh Pant's starting position number today in the batting order... He's removed, but I think he must play most of the games as Opener...

Tector survived till the end of the batting portion of the game for Ireland at a quota very close (but not equal) to the expected one - 30 R, 150 S/R.
Now the main task is to model the Babar Azam/ Fakhar Zaman expected runs, but I prefer to add some additional attention to the Irish Bowling attack on Ayub & Rizwan. Guess why.
Despite the captaincy of Rizwan being different than Azam's one, the Model triggers are almost the same today.

IPL T20, Delhi vs LuckNow, the second part is underway,
I have a bit of a problem modeling the game after the break due to Deepak Hooda's floating ratings for his actual game so far versus the projected.
The preliminary assessment of the KL Rahul / Quinton De Kock duo is expected to be uneventful. But if Hooda is in the lineup between Marcus Stoinis and Nicholas Pooran, the variation of Hooda's performance on the pitch (X vs XX Expected Points) should be expected to some extent, provided that Delhi Capitals' bowling department plays a calm defensive style and nothing more than the 208 runs achieved by Delhi earlier.

I'd love to read your opinions.

IPL, the Mumbai Indians vs LSG clash has just started,
Both teams are de-motivated in terms of not qualifying for the Top Four and the Playoffs, but after some analyses, I have a hypothesis - one of them is much more motivated for something pre-defined (but I could be wrong).
I personally think that the odds compilers have suggested starting odds whose implied probabilities are different from the calculated ones, assuming that today's experimental tune-ups behind my calculations reflect the hypothesis I have in mind, and the MI & LSG starting line-ups as well.
However, due to the risk of a wrong hypothesis, some positions are reduced plus protective stop losses at different points compared to the usual ones.
But these kinds of derbies (outside the Playoffs spots) are excellent testing grounds for different modeling things.

There's no way you could have overlooked the three Wickets for three MI's bowling deliveries in the interval {16.5, 17.1} and it's just the unexpected torpedo in the markets confirming the inevitable, giving some useful tenths of odds as a gift for us. What an unexpected scenario, providing us with unexpected value for the inevitable (remember Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah, Coetzee, Tilak Varma, Tim David are on the bench today despite needing them).
By the way, 214/6 for the visiting team is a challenge for the home team, despite the initial odds...

You might be better off taking a safe trade profit started with the pre-match offered by Pinny over 2.00 (for the away team) through the hedge to the current under 1.7 for LSG offered by other agencies (if you somehow haven't hedged this for a sure profit at odds under 1.6 on the break) if you're not a fan of roller coaster events. But I suggest you wait a few moments if you have modeled the next moves…

With the Wankhede's rain in mind, what exactly is your best-case scenario in today's trade if engaging the D/L method is required at some stage? Additional 1.1 Ov is needed for that, or the match will be declared No Result due to the rules. 3.5 Ov played so far after the break.

Well, LuckNow Super Giants overcame Mumbai Indians at Wankhede minutes ago.

Rohit Sharma was involved in the substitution, but the result was not too far from the expected interval.

I was impressed by the storm of despair, performed by Naman Dhir (62R, 221S/R at the end). When he entered (due to Wadhera's out) the hosts needed 16.286 RRR to win. His 4x4 and 5x6 within 28 balls gave some sporadic value opportunities on some exchanges against MI. Why? Due to wrong tactics from the very start and also the wrong initial Mumbai Indians' starting line-up.

In my opinion, Super Giants despite their poor game start today, just reacted accordingly to the nervousness of the MI team due to the game they needed to win to avoid the bottom of the points table, before the KXIP (a.k.a. PBKS) game vs SunRisers Hyderabad...