Arbusers

I didn't understand the logic behind PAK's decision to send exactly Iftikhar Ahmed as a Super Over batsman.

Addendum: We witnessed USA T20 Cricket's historic first win over PAK.

India vs Pakistan ICC World Cup T20 Mega Derby is coming up in a few hours,
I would like to read your views before the match, if possible.
Thanks.

The eternal India vs Pakistan T20 Cricket World Cup clash is goin' to start very soon in New York if the rain stops.

I personally decided to split my positions in the respective markets YY % pre-match and the rest when it goes live mode. Most of the funds will be invested in the ML market and the rest in other carefully selected markets.
To prepare my pre-match value positions and also the actual trading plan (in-running mode), I had the following in mind:
- The Gary Kirsten Factor: It's very difficult to use overly simplistic pre-match modeling when the Coach is serving as the opposing team's Coach in the timeline.
So, Pakistan's contemporary coach Kirsten is the same Kirsten who gave India the 2011 World Cup Trophy at the legendary Wankhede after beating Pakistan (at Mohali if I'm not mistaken) in the semi-final and Sri Lanka (at Wankhede) in the Grand Final. Also, remember Gary Kirsten as a coach gave India the Asia Cup trophy in 2010 (India beat Pakistan here too).
I have watched the work of coach Gary Kirsten extensively not only as the Head Coach of India but also in the IPL as a member of the coaching staff of the Gujarat Titans team and also as a Head Coach of Pakistan. Thus, the starting and final modeling points are shaped by some boundaries.
Also, when one Coach has worked for both teams, additional margins of safety must be introduced when a modeler prepares the forecast work. Regarding the Soccer analogy, I've had good practice modeling Radomir Antić's coaching approaches when he was involved in the eternal derbies between Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid as their Head Coach in different time-frames. Here is the same.
In short – India knows very well Kirsten's coaching approaches very well and reliable accurate prediction of Kirsten's possible tactical changes is much needed today;
- Babar Azam's captaincy ideas prediction or Mohammad Rizwan's smart ideas (as vice-captain) will be the priority today vs India. I tried to insert into my Model tune-ups some personal forecasts about the management of the Pakistani team today;
- I wonder if Imad Wasim (member of the Seattle Orcas team) will make an appearance in the starting line-up and if he does, I prefer to give him a slightly different weighting than before, despite Kirsten's conservative coaching approach to a number of things. That is an experimental setting in my trading plan. He knows something about American pitches;
- One of the major variables that has not been made public is the exact health status of Indian captain Rohit Sharma.
I was so worried when he withdrew injured against Ireland days ago.
It doesn't matter that I've seen him play very well injured in the past, some extra probabilities are thrown into the trade plan during the game today depending on who is bowling against him per Kirsten's decision;
- I think Shivam Dube is used differently in Team India and in Chennai Super Kings under Stephen Fleming. A double-edged sword, so additional auxiliary matrices must be built to shorten the probability interval {Xbb, Ybb} when Dube is in action on the pitch;
- All the modelers spotted India's almost excellent pre-match tactical preparation depending on the next opponent and especially against Pakistan. But how exactly should the fact that India has lost rarely against Pakistan in recent matches be factored into the Model, given that when the Bharat team lost against this opponent, the shock was pretty big? For example, in the 2017 Champions Trophy Final in London, India All Out/30.3 Ov. and PAK won by 180 Runs, and Pakistan won by 10 wickets in Dubai 2021 World Cup T20;
That's why I personally prefer to enter a safe zone made up of well-chosen fairly long longs and a few short stop-losses;
- The Jasprit Bumrah Factor - for some reason I prefer to introduce slightly different probabilities regarding Killing Bowling in the timeline today.
- The Rain Factor today (the rain before the Toss...);
- And thousands of additional personal observations, Data, Stats and Graphics.

Let's enjoy the sheer Cricket game as it is.

I'd love to read your opinions.

Virat Kohli and other Indian cricketers playing Soccer on the pitch while waiting for the rain to stop in New York, what a pleasant surprise!

Imad Wasim has replaced Azam Khan, so now a proper adjustment is needed in the Model. Note that PAK chose to Bowl first so…

Well, come on post your opinions here.

As I look at Shaheen Shah Afridi's bowling style, I wonder if he is somehow related to Shahid Afridi?

The Bharat team is 119 All Out in 18.6 Over after their batting portion of the current game in New York.
Extreme revaluation of Fast Indian Bowling and another Bowling combination in effect in terms of probabilities vs Azam, Zaman and Rizwan, but overall the updated trading plan for the game after the break is pretty clear...

Your opinions?

Hardik Pandya's brilliant bowling delivery to Fakhar Zaman and the excellent catch by WicketKeeper Rishabh Pant (interestingly no WK helmet here).
At the same time, I wonder if Pandya was reliable like this throughout the IPL, exactly where would Mumbai Indians be in the IPL points table in 2024….
Jasprit Bumrah's killer bowling style has hurt Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan, but there is not much time left for plan B for India... I spot the Dot Balls bowling tactics from Axar Patel to Imad Wasim & Shadab Khan.

Logically, the Creeping Evens are behind the corner at the moment - Bharat again became the Favorite for no time!

Let's see what happens.

Addendum: Pandya & Pant also removed Khan.

Jasprit Bumrah also shot via Dot Balls and Bharat moved under 1.2 on the Money Line.

What is the variety of Cricket game endspiels - believe it or not - the most revered derby in this kind of sports India vs Pakistan ended at a result of 119/All Out : 113/7, an amazing series of miracles on the pitch today happened in no time.
I don't remember in my life such a derby between IND and PAK with such a low Strike Rate.

We all know the seven Wonders of the World.
Once Albert Einstein said: "Compound interest is the eighth Wonder of the World".
After a long time of observations year after year, and also after today's match, I think Jasprit Bumrah is the ninth Wonder of the World.

No one expected such a heavy batting restriction for India's attack today;
Some Pakistani players did not use the maximum of their knowledge of the New York pitch;
The Bowling festival as a whole: the Pakistani bowlers were in the interval from 5.25 till 7.25 E/R while Indian ones were in the interval from 3.5 till 7.75 E/R, and guess what happened when India was priced on the ML markets circa 8 - Jasprit Bumrah took 3 Wckts and achieved 3.5 Economy Rate;
That was amazing, but what was more amazing was the fact that India was struggling to survive at a very low point and Rahul Dravid started a tactical plan B vs Gary Kirsten!
Here I was reminded of the endless performances of Mumbai Indians in the IPL and India in internationals and the bowling marvels of Jasprit Bumrah, but also Lasith Malinga and those low-scoring SunRisers Hyderabad team of yesteryear with Kane Williamson when they somehow defended dreadfully low batting totals via wonders of strong bowling and became IPL champions.

What a play of Beauty we are blessed to watch in this day and age!

Cricket Modeling is a Joyful Art, a Passion aimed at triggering reasonable forecasts amidst the plethora of endless paradoxes.

Paradox 1: Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah, and Hardik Pandya pull India ahead, but their team Mumbai Indians is the lowest bottom fish of the IPL 2024;
Paradox 2: Mumbai Indians are 10th, NRR (-0.318) while Gary Kirsten's Gujarat Titans have achieved 50 % more points, but the NRR is the most desperate (-1.063);
And so on.

Happy modeling.

Hi there, I`m new to cricket, should I try betting on this one? And if yes, whom should I consider at first?

Jammah Lee wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 10, 2024 2:21 pm

Hi there, I`m new to cricket, should I try betting on this one? And if yes, whom should I consider at first?

If you are a Rookie to Cricket I would not advise you to play with the fire due to the endless variables in that wonderful game.

A possible path is as follows:

- Download this:

images.icc-cricket.com/image/upload/prd/xxc5orswsnf0sz3uo9xu.pdf

- Read all chapters from 03 to 09 - the Playing Conditions in all major Cricket formats: ODI & T20 Internationals for Ladies and also Test, ODI, and T20 Internationals for Men;
Avoid diving among the sharks in the market until you learn the basic Conditions of Cricket;

- Very often the rain stops the play on the pitch and the market could kill you. The enhanced DLS Method is the contemporary standard and not available to everyone, but you could download and learn at least the basic Duckworth/Lewis Method calculations:

images.icc-cricket.com/image/upload/prd/orlbya4cqyhqaceje3b2.pdf

- Next step: watch as much Cricket as you can / play as much Cricket as you can. The variant of the 10.000-hour rule. Understand the Cricket game in depth;

- Generate more and more and more own ideas, test those ones, re-evaluate, and try diving into the markets.
Maybe Asia is not far from your location. Try the spirit of the game, try some reliable agencies.

Just my 2 cents.

T20 World Cup, USA vs India at Nassau CICS, NY at the moment;

I have been watching Saurabh Netravalkar's bowling for several years now, so Netravalkar's Wicket probability against Bharat today was much higher than the "usual" opinion according to the most heavily loaded Model before the match. The lightweight settings of the Model were not too far from reality either.

Most Recent Crossing of Some Specific My Preselected types of Moving Averages with Exponential Moving Averages:
- Penultimate #1: Netravalkar' Wckt vs Virat Kohli in 0.2 Ov;
- And Latest #2: Netravalkar' Wckt vs Rohit Sharma in 2.2 Ov;

In my view, one of the best future decisions of Ms. Kavya Maran would be to strengthen the weak bowling Department of SunRisers Hyderabad (that deprived the SRH team of winning the IPL 2024 despite the unique batting Dept) through an additional bowling Coach helping Daniel Vettori and also Saurabh Netravalkar in the IPL.
Good bowling Advisors/Coaches would be the duo of Pravin Tambe / Lasith Malinga.