Arbusers

The T20 Cricket World Cup, the Rubicon for New Zealand vs West Indies is goin' to start within 30 minutes.

After the crash vs AFG by 84 runs and current NRR of (- 4.200), I had to rewatch on the screens New Zealand's last few T20I games, again and again, to discover exactly what the hidden keys to the Kiwis' problems were. The recent 2W and 2L vs. Pakistan (in April) and 3L vs. the Aussies (in February) were so different from the good performance on the pitch vs. Pakistan in January (4W/1L).

The most important thing for NZ is to try to beat West Indies at any cost and later to think about NRR's large improvement vs the next two opponents, otherwise, they're out of the World Cup too early.
In today's tune-ups of the Model, I chose to input various things, for example:
- The expected general pre-estimation of the game performance of West Indies vs. the first tough opponent of the World Cup;
- I personally expect New Zealand to take more risks than usual and introduce a different tactical approach to try and upset the West Indies in those weak aspects of the team's game that have historically been covered by Jason Holder, who is absent due to injury now;
- The probability of a different West Indies' approach vs Daryl Mitchell & Michael Bracewell;
- I expect different batting approaches from Devon Conway & Kane Williamson, but the risk assessment within the timescale will rise very aggressively;
- I wonder when exactly the West Indians would leave their comfort zone if the Kiwis succeeded in pressing them hard very early. I'm sure Captain Rovman Powell and also the WI Coach Daren Sammy are willing to use their game resources more sparingly today, backed by the luxury of (+ 3.574) NRR achieved so far;
- And many others.

Your opinions?

Let's enjoy the sheer Cricket now on Sky Sports.

Michael Bracewell is NOT in the starting line-up so the relevant changes in the trading plan are in effect.

After the very strong Kiwis' start as expected and Boult removed Charles, the current odds in the ML market are exactly the opposite of the initial ones and break the new resistance level of the market.

The pressing by the Kiwis is much more heavier now,
Tim Southee removed Nicholas Pooran in 3.5 Ov,
Some reasonable take profit points were taken earlier than expected, and also on a market different than ML new entries are pretty reasonable right now.

Roston Chase is out, Lockie Ferguson finishes the job in 4.3 Ov,
I prefer to take the appropriate percentage of the take-profit points of the ML market according to my plan and to mitigate some risk and reinvest in another market.

By the way, I wonder what the likelihood is of today's heavy rain returning on the pitch during the match. It would be a very pity if the D/L Method wiped the current game…

2.2 till 1.15 price moving during the Powerplay One is exceptional and stunning even after strong pre-analysis, supporting similar price action to some extent.

The first match of the Series India Ladies vs South Africa Ladies is in progress at the Bengaluru pitch now, courtesy of Fox Sports Cricket.

While the MoneyLine market today has almost zero value, the Batsman markets, Dismissal markets, Runs markets and some other markets give us some options right now provided you watch those teams closely year after year.

I'm very surprised by Shafali Verma's early wrong move. I can spot the desire for a slightly conservative start to this Series from Captain Harmanpreet Kaur and I also notice some interesting measures from Laura Wolvaardt from the start.
I'm watching Smriti Mandhana's very slow and conservative S/R increase very closely for some reason.

I'm expecting some stuff from Jemimah Rodrigues right now and from Marizanne Kapp later that day.

Let's see what happens...


Your opinions?

A very important stage is in progress now - Klaas (1 Wckt taken so far) & Mlaba (1 Wckt taken so far) vs the heavy Indian guns Smriti Mandhana & J. Rodrigues.
WOW!

Well, I think the Runs market is a bit misjudged right now with Rodrigues Out (caught by Marizanne Kapp) & also after Ghosh was caught by Jafta.
Why BCCI did not select Taniya Bhatia today?

One of the most likely triggers today was Smriti Mandhana's one according to the Model's tune-ups: (x) 67% likelihood of achieving at least 85 Runs today vs South Africa. So far so good, taking in mind her 117 Runs today.
At the same time, I failed to "forecast" Shafali Verma's true score in terms of scored Runs.
The most interesting thing for the post-analysis is the triangle of Klaas-Luus-Jafta, involved in those cases. Huh...

By the way, Afridi removed both Balbirnie & Paul Stirling now (Pakistan vs Ireland in Florida now, T20 World Cup),
I personally expected similar Shaheen Shah Afridi's achievement but not too early (within Powerplay One) and not vs both heavy IRE gunners…
Let's see what happens.

Addendum: Excuse me, I have in mind Tucker, sorry.
Stirling is removed by Mohammad Amir actually.
The Pakistani achievement of 8 for 3 vs Ireland after 12 deliveries is too late in the group stage in that World Cup, but food for thought in terms of modeling Gary Kirsten's future matches...

By the way, Mohammad Rizwan's behavior on the pitch vs Ireland is what the Model is insisting on right now.
Harry Tector was also removed by Afridi.

In my opinion, both the BCCI & the PCB should approve Mohammad Rizwan and Shaheen Afridi's appearance in the IPL 2025.
Also, I think they should approve Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni's appearance in the PSL 2025.

Your opinions?

Chester-le-Street, Lancashire is very close to Durham's Run Rate after the eight Overs played,
The very interesting challenge is the "forecast" of the exact Lankashire's achievement near the Dead Overs stage,
I will pass that (the odds compilers killed the market early) and simply watch the game in order to improve my T20 Blast Model.

By the way, Imad Wasim's Economy Rate is spectacular now, below 2 after 18 bowling deliveries and Three Wckts achieved vs Delany, Adair & McCarthy.
I'm starting the Major League Cricket of the USA Modeling now and I hope Wasim will be there in the Seattle Orcas' team...