Formula1 / formula one
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Mystic
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Formula1 / formula one
Does anyone know for any betting strategy to bet on Formula1 (/ formula one )?
When You know how it works then You should know how to break it. 
- ray mansi
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
i have checked all history since the very first season and it works for moto gp also never lost. but you get like 5-10 units per season like this 
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Mystic
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
It would be cool to hear about the strategy
When You know how it works then You should know how to break it.
- ray mansi
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
i think i can. Is this allowed to share email here where we could talk. But I would like to receive help also with it, because it can only be worthwhile if you bet high amount money and i started with small money. It takes many many years for me if it keeps winning. Together with others i could build bankroll more fast.
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arbusers
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arb12
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
@ Mystic,
The thread you started is definitely interesting.
I'm a little busy right now, but I'll post some side thoughts as soon as I'm free.
The thread you started is definitely interesting.
I'm a little busy right now, but I'll post some side thoughts as soon as I'm free.
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Mystic
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Post . I hope You write soon cuz Your posts are very interesting
Re: Formula1 / formula one
That's great to hear from experienced guy
. I hope You write soon cuz Your posts are very interestingWhen You know how it works then You should know how to break it.
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arb12
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
If you like Probability Theory and strive to build your own model via Stats and Data, that opinion could be helpful.
I've participated in some F1 markets in the past. I now have a diverse portfolio of circa 10-12 other sports and now personally very rarely participate in F1 markets due to a lack of time to model these ones. So my opinion isn't relevant now, but I hope some things below in the text can be useful for your modeling activity. Use the Socratic questioning approach in your activity and observations.
When compiling various probabilities here, keep in mind time-varying estimates by your model such as:
- Engines Ratings - Neither engineered project quality nor practice reliability is constant in time. Mugen/Honda, Cosworth/Ford, Ferrari, Mercedes and so on. Do you remember Ilmor (an IndyCar legend via Chevrolet), Peugeot, Yamaha and Toyota's engines and how exactly would you rate them given the current conditions of their edition?
- Every F1 team's unique chassis - constant uncertainty throughout the sporting season. Practically every week different settings are changed for each team, so my build overall rating on that variable is not very reliable for me. The additional forward estimates by your model herein are not based on informed opinion.
- Cumulative pre-estimation for the engine/chassis combination.
- Ratings for the F1 drivers - almost everything is clear here. But only at first glance. Why? For example, remember Schumacher in Benetton chassis/Ford engine. In Benetton/Renault also. Later in a top-quality Ferrari, it's easy.
And Nigel Mansell also. Two consecutive seasons, two world titles via quite a different chassis/engines and mostly different championship philosophies - F1 and IndyCar. Winning the IndyCar Championship as a Rookie of the Year at the age of 40 sounds to me (in an analogy of Soccer) like one of Otto Rehhagel's miracles - winning the Deutscher Bundesliga title via rookie team K'lautern or the European title via Greece.
- An additional cumulative pre-assessment that consists of all of the above.
- Your assessment of the particularities of every track. For example, How do you pre-estimate the overtaking possibilities on the Spa Francorchamps? And what about the Hungaroring? Why exactly? How about the speed of those two? Why? And so forth.
- Very interesting component is the team's tactic. For example, in the past, very interesting was to watch the chosen number of tires change, the exact moment for replacement, the type of the chosen tires, and the race condition at the moment. Remember Todt/Brawn/Schumacher and their tactic. I think nowadays things are much more equalized than before.
The probability of good performance, if modern F1 teams use similar tactics in similar conditions, is huge. Why? But how exactly given F1 manager will win given that the contemporary techniques/strategies used by almost all teams are similar?
The refueling stoppage time in the past, and also the stoppage time for tires-change. Every team was different and some teams lost more seconds to do it. I've remembered Jos "The Boss" Verstappen and the fire in the pitstop of Benetton. His son Max Verstappen has the same temperament on the track.
And numbers of other tactical components, if you've got enough time to estimate these. For example, tactics and decisions chosen in the rain. Again Schumacher (Benetton) from starting position 16th to winning the race.
- Consider building strategies aiming to mitigate the Black Swans by Prof. Taleb. You can't build the probability of when exactly an engine/suspension will fail. In my opinion, one of the most teaching races is Grand Prix Monaco, when Olivier Panis and the Ligier team won. Only three cars finished at the end. Almost all cars were eliminated. Watch that race, you'll teach a lot. That's a classical Black Swan.
And so on, and so on. That kind of modeling is time consumption, but if you have a motorsport passion...
I've participated in some F1 markets in the past. I now have a diverse portfolio of circa 10-12 other sports and now personally very rarely participate in F1 markets due to a lack of time to model these ones. So my opinion isn't relevant now, but I hope some things below in the text can be useful for your modeling activity. Use the Socratic questioning approach in your activity and observations.
When compiling various probabilities here, keep in mind time-varying estimates by your model such as:
- Engines Ratings - Neither engineered project quality nor practice reliability is constant in time. Mugen/Honda, Cosworth/Ford, Ferrari, Mercedes and so on. Do you remember Ilmor (an IndyCar legend via Chevrolet), Peugeot, Yamaha and Toyota's engines and how exactly would you rate them given the current conditions of their edition?
- Every F1 team's unique chassis - constant uncertainty throughout the sporting season. Practically every week different settings are changed for each team, so my build overall rating on that variable is not very reliable for me. The additional forward estimates by your model herein are not based on informed opinion.
- Cumulative pre-estimation for the engine/chassis combination.
- Ratings for the F1 drivers - almost everything is clear here. But only at first glance. Why? For example, remember Schumacher in Benetton chassis/Ford engine. In Benetton/Renault also. Later in a top-quality Ferrari, it's easy.
And Nigel Mansell also. Two consecutive seasons, two world titles via quite a different chassis/engines and mostly different championship philosophies - F1 and IndyCar. Winning the IndyCar Championship as a Rookie of the Year at the age of 40 sounds to me (in an analogy of Soccer) like one of Otto Rehhagel's miracles - winning the Deutscher Bundesliga title via rookie team K'lautern or the European title via Greece.
- An additional cumulative pre-assessment that consists of all of the above.
- Your assessment of the particularities of every track. For example, How do you pre-estimate the overtaking possibilities on the Spa Francorchamps? And what about the Hungaroring? Why exactly? How about the speed of those two? Why? And so forth.
- Very interesting component is the team's tactic. For example, in the past, very interesting was to watch the chosen number of tires change, the exact moment for replacement, the type of the chosen tires, and the race condition at the moment. Remember Todt/Brawn/Schumacher and their tactic. I think nowadays things are much more equalized than before.
The probability of good performance, if modern F1 teams use similar tactics in similar conditions, is huge. Why? But how exactly given F1 manager will win given that the contemporary techniques/strategies used by almost all teams are similar?
The refueling stoppage time in the past, and also the stoppage time for tires-change. Every team was different and some teams lost more seconds to do it. I've remembered Jos "The Boss" Verstappen and the fire in the pitstop of Benetton. His son Max Verstappen has the same temperament on the track.
And numbers of other tactical components, if you've got enough time to estimate these. For example, tactics and decisions chosen in the rain. Again Schumacher (Benetton) from starting position 16th to winning the race.
- Consider building strategies aiming to mitigate the Black Swans by Prof. Taleb. You can't build the probability of when exactly an engine/suspension will fail. In my opinion, one of the most teaching races is Grand Prix Monaco, when Olivier Panis and the Ligier team won. Only three cars finished at the end. Almost all cars were eliminated. Watch that race, you'll teach a lot. That's a classical Black Swan.
And so on, and so on. That kind of modeling is time consumption, but if you have a motorsport passion...
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Mystic
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
Wow! Although I don't know much about F1, this post was very interesting to read and learn something from. F1 is not a sport that I neither like nor dislike, but it is interesting because of all the parameters that affect the race and because not many people talk about F1, and there is another reason why I started to study F1 as a sport (how? where? what?) , and that's because in my country one man and his friend knew something about F1 that others don't and raised HRK 2-3 million (around €300k) by betting on 18 different bets (he had 18 betting tickets), after he also had problems with the bookmaker who didn't want to pay him money (even though he bet in the shop and had a bet ticket), so he also had threats from them, he didn't want to spread the news until the bookmaker went too far and started taking life from him and friends in danger. This happened around 2010, and they still have online articles about all of this, but in Croatian.arb12 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 10:50 pmIf you like Probability Theory and strive to build your own model via Stats and Data, that opinion could be helpful.
I've participated in some F1 markets in the past. I now have a diverse portfolio of circa 10-12 other sports and now personally very rarely participate in F1 markets due to a lack of time to model these ones. So my opinion isn't relevant now, but I hope some things below in the text can be useful for your modeling activity. Use the Socratic questioning approach in your activity and observations.
When compiling various probabilities here, keep in mind time-varying estimates by your model such as:
- Engines Ratings - Neither engineered project quality nor practice reliability is constant in time. Mugen/Honda, Cosworth/Ford, Ferrari, Mercedes and so on. Do you remember Ilmor (an IndyCar legend via Chevrolet), Peugeot, Yamaha and Toyota's engines and how exactly would you rate them given the current conditions of their edition?
- Every F1 team's unique chassis - constant uncertainty throughout the sporting season. Practically every week different settings are changed for each team, so my build overall rating on that variable is not very reliable for me. The additional forward estimates by your model herein are not based on informed opinion.
- Cumulative pre-estimation for the engine/chassis combination.
- Ratings for the F1 drivers - almost everything is clear here. But only at first glance. Why? For example, remember Schumacher in Benetton chassis/Ford engine. In Benetton/Renault also. Later in a top-quality Ferrari, it's easy.
And Nigel Mansell also. Two consecutive seasons, two world titles via quite a different chassis/engines and mostly different championship philosophies - F1 and IndyCar. Winning the IndyCar Championship as a Rookie of the Year at the age of 40 sounds to me (in an analogy of Soccer) like one of Otto Rehhagel's miracles - winning the Deutscher Bundesliga title via rookie team K'lautern or the European title via Greece.
- An additional cumulative pre-assessment that consists of all of the above.
- Your assessment of the particularities of every track. For example, How do you pre-estimate the overtaking possibilities on the Spa Francorchamps? And what about the Hungaroring? Why exactly? How about the speed of those two? Why? And so forth.
- Very interesting component is the team's tactic. For example, in the past, very interesting was to watch the chosen number of tires change, the exact moment for replacement, the type of the chosen tires, and the race condition at the moment. Remember Todt/Brawn/Schumacher and their tactic. I think nowadays things are much more equalized than before.
The probability of good performance, if modern F1 teams use similar tactics in similar conditions, is huge. Why? But how exactly given F1 manager will win given that the contemporary techniques/strategies used by almost all teams are similar?
The refueling stoppage time in the past, and also the stoppage time for tires-change. Every team was different and some teams lost more seconds to do it. I've remembered Jos "The Boss" Verstappen and the fire in the pitstop of Benetton. His son Max Verstappen has the same temperament on the track.
And numbers of other tactical components, if you've got enough time to estimate these. For example, tactics and decisions chosen in the rain. Again Schumacher (Benetton) from starting position 16th to winning the race.
- Consider building strategies aiming to mitigate the Black Swans by Prof. Taleb. You can't build the probability of when exactly an engine/suspension will fail. In my opinion, one of the most teaching races is Grand Prix Monaco, when Olivier Panis and the Ligier team won. Only three cars finished at the end. Almost all cars were eliminated. Watch that race, you'll teach a lot. That's a classical Black Swan.
And so on, and so on. That kind of modeling is time consumption, but if you have a motorsport passion...
When You know how it works then You should know how to break it.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
I think that most of the agencies in the countries of this peninsula are scammers and under the guise of "agency, bookmaker" other illegal things are done under the umbrella of people in power. Unfortunately, these (hidden) people do not support Aristotle's views that Justice is an important value in the State.
Mentioning the name of this agency would prevent this from happening again.
Very sad that happens in EU member.
Re: Formula1 / formula one
Mystic wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:50 pmWow! Although I don't know much about F1, this post was very interesting to read and learn something from. F1 is not a sport that I neither like nor dislike, but it is interesting because of all the parameters that affect the race and because not many people talk about F1, and there is another reason why I started to study F1 as a sport (how? where? what?) , and that's because in my country one man and his friend knew something about F1 that others don't and raised HRK 2-3 million (around €300k) by betting on 18 different bets (he had 18 betting tickets), after he also had problems with the bookmaker who didn't want to pay him money (even though he bet in the shop and had a bet ticket), so he also had threats from them, he didn't want to spread the news until the bookmaker went too far and started taking life from him and friends in danger. This happened around 2010, and they still have online articles about all of this, but in Croatian.
I think that most of the agencies in the countries of this peninsula are scammers and under the guise of "agency, bookmaker" other illegal things are done under the umbrella of people in power. Unfortunately, these (hidden) people do not support Aristotle's views that Justice is an important value in the State.
Mentioning the name of this agency would prevent this from happening again.
Very sad that happens in EU member.
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Mystic
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
I absolutely agree with you, I would say the betting shop is well known not only locally, but now it has a different name under the same company, it used to be Fortuna, and now it is called PSK.arb12 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 30, 2023 12:31 amMystic wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:50 pmWow! Although I don't know much about F1, this post was very interesting to read and learn something from. F1 is not a sport that I neither like nor dislike, but it is interesting because of all the parameters that affect the race and because not many people talk about F1, and there is another reason why I started to study F1 as a sport (how? where? what?) , and that's because in my country one man and his friend knew something about F1 that others don't and raised HRK 2-3 million (around €300k) by betting on 18 different bets (he had 18 betting tickets), after he also had problems with the bookmaker who didn't want to pay him money (even though he bet in the shop and had a bet ticket), so he also had threats from them, he didn't want to spread the news until the bookmaker went too far and started taking life from him and friends in danger. This happened around 2010, and they still have online articles about all of this, but in Croatian.
I think that most of the agencies in the countries of this peninsula are scammers and under the guise of "agency, bookmaker" other illegal things are done under the umbrella of people in power. Unfortunately, these (hidden) people do not support Aristotle's views that Justice is an important value in the State.
Mentioning the name of this agency would prevent this from happening again.
Very sad that happens in EU member.
When You know how it works then You should know how to break it.
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Do you like motorsports in general? If you go to the track and rent a speed car (like a Lotus) or even a go-kart and race or even just practice, you will feel some things deeply, including engine, suspension, gearbox, the surface of the track, acceleration, brakes, feeling of track positioning in the race, quick switching of thought, etc.
Who knows, it might help to understand some things, while watching or modeling motorsport. If not, the pure joy of the sport will remain.
Re: Formula1 / formula one
Mystic wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 11:50 pmWow! Although I don't know much about F1, this post was very interesting to read and learn something from. F1 is not a sport that I neither like nor dislike, but it is interesting because of all the parameters that affect the race and because not many people talk about F1, and there is another reason why I started to study F1 as a sport (how? where? what?) ...............
Do you like motorsports in general? If you go to the track and rent a speed car (like a Lotus) or even a go-kart and race or even just practice, you will feel some things deeply, including engine, suspension, gearbox, the surface of the track, acceleration, brakes, feeling of track positioning in the race, quick switching of thought, etc.
Who knows, it might help to understand some things, while watching or modeling motorsport. If not, the pure joy of the sport will remain.
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arbusers
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Re: Formula1 / formula one
It's not about liking or disliking any sport. Smart betting is a business, and in some cases, you don't have to even watch the game you bet on. On the other hand, if you have a personal experience and you really like the sport, then you have an advantage on your side.
Let me make a parenthesis here to illustrate what I am talking about, and of course I apologise for interrupting your interesting dialogue. I recently came across a 16 year old boy, who is a basketball freak. This boy is watching NBA, Euroleague, FIBA games, and national championships 16 hours per day. He is now so efficient that he advises his father and his mother in betting. On average, every betting account makes 9K Euros without betting at any pulps before the bookmaker closes is down. This is the power of loving the game and dedicating time to it.
Now this story is interesting...
Let me make a parenthesis here to illustrate what I am talking about, and of course I apologise for interrupting your interesting dialogue. I recently came across a 16 year old boy, who is a basketball freak. This boy is watching NBA, Euroleague, FIBA games, and national championships 16 hours per day. He is now so efficient that he advises his father and his mother in betting. On average, every betting account makes 9K Euros without betting at any pulps before the bookmaker closes is down. This is the power of loving the game and dedicating time to it.
Now this story is interesting...
Mystic wrote: Wow! Although I don't know much about F1, this post was very interesting to read and learn something from. F1 is not a sport that I neither like nor dislike, but it is interesting because of all the parameters that affect the race and because not many people talk about F1, and there is another reason why I started to study F1 as a sport (how? where? what?) , and that's because in my country one man and his friend knew something about F1 that others don't and raised HRK 2-3 million (around €300k) by betting on 18 different bets (he had 18 betting tickets), after he also had problems with the bookmaker who didn't want to pay him money (even though he bet in the shop and had a bet ticket), so he also had threats from them, he didn't want to spread the news until the bookmaker went too far and started taking life from him and friends in danger. This happened around 2010, and they still have online articles about all of this, but in Croatian.
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