Arbusers

HI,

I had an algorithm that compared soft bookies odds with sharp bookies odds to find value bets (alerting when soft odds bookies odds are higher than sharp without the juice).

I ran this algorithm and bet during a yer and had a good return until I got banned.

The markets were ATP|WTA tennis (singles an doubles) Basketball both betting on the underdog winning side. Also draws for soccer.

The more and more I read on this forum I wonder if I was lucky, because if I understand well what I have read here, the only way to find value bets consistenly is to build my own odds an then find value bets based on my own odds.

The next move I want to try, is to run a Montecarlo simulation to see how lucky I was with the result.

Is still possible to find value using only soft odds and sharp as a reference?

Thanks!

josé wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 22, 2023 10:44 am

Is still possible to find value using only soft odds and sharp as a reference?

Of course you can never be sure unless you see the data, but in my view your thought process is wrong.
Firstly, because taking higher odds from softs compared to sharps, will not help your accounts live longer. The bookmaker will simply think that you are arbing.
Secondly, because both sharps and softs have an opinion on the market, and many times they have information which is not distributed among all parties. That means they are one step ahead, and they can create what we call ''value traps'' in order to make you bet.

Of course, we only talk about tennis and basketball. Tennis is notorious for irregularities to put it kindly.

On the other hand, if this tactic works for you that means you should go on with it for as long as it works. In the US basketball, they say ''You never change a winning team''.

I totally agree that this strategy will end with a ban sooner or later. But last year I could grow a bankroll from X to 100X. I would love reapeating it.
I also bet as a gambler from time to time, to make my strategy harder to detect. And try to bet mainly on liquid markets.
I am asking this because I would like to check if this approach (soft vs sharp odds) still should work, or maybe I was just lucky.

josé wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 22, 2023 10:44 am

The markets were ATP|WTA tennis (singles an doubles) Basketball both betting on the underdog winning side. Also draws for soccer.

The more and more I read on this forum I wonder if I was lucky, because if I understand well what I have read here, the only way to find value bets consistenly is to build my own odds an then find value bets based on my own odds.

The next move I want to try, is to run a Montecarlo simulation to see how lucky I was with the result.

Welcome to the Club, congratulations on intentions of building your own model, testing approaches and compiling your own odds. However, use a variance mitigation plan until you get a lot more experience compiling those odds. Much later in time, it is much easier.

Im in the making of a simular bot. But I have a question about fixture ids. How do you match the different bookies to the same game if fixture ids not are the same and the names dont match like feks PSG & Paris SG?

this was a tough nut to crack years ago. not sure it became easier nowadays