Arbusers

@ Neopas,
You're absolutely right about Aris' big potential. I'm personally tryin' to imagine some scenarios, if Héctor Cúper receives another invitation to upgrade his previous staying in Thessaloniki...

The match days ago in Giannina, that you've mentioned in your posting, you've graded very well. Lately, I've lost some focus from that team, lack of much time due to my new project, but I'll hint to you some things about Aris.
That team is among the teams in Greek Championship, whose data, publicly available for your general and in-depth analysis purposes, are so-called RAW data in my eyes. You'd better see Aris on TV and further decide which kind of data are 100 percent relevant due to their manner of play in the Super League and the Cup tournaments.
Often, the statistical data of their performance are so tough to be directly used. That may be a potential pitfall, seekin' for a value.
Beware when they play matches in some circumstances, for instance, when they compete vs teams with a double-headed eagle on their logo - rivalry, motivation, kind of tournaments, stage of tournaments, current form, other factors.

Sometimes there are agencies, tryin' to lure their recreational users - for instance, in the friendlies, the betslip may contain the participant Aris, but they've mean Cypriot Aris actually.

One of the best domestic Volleyball Championships around the World, the Brasilian one, after about a month or something, will finish the regular stage and will go into the Play-Off stage.

Due to some reasons, the last rounds I preferred mostly to see the way the many things happen there, to collect some data, awaitin' for the Play-Offs. But now I'm awaitin' for some potential value if appears. Why? One reason is the match Minas vs FUNVIC Natal, held last week. Absurd pre-match pricing. The FUNVIC team is the defending champion. Although that team is currently 7th in the table, is among the best teams. Not to mention the Championship's final several months ago between the same participants.
Now, after Minas' defeat vs FUNVIC Natal, the Cruzeiro team has arisen some percent probability to compete for the best position before the Play-Offs.

Brasilian Lady's Volley Championship is also so classy tournament, and I'm willing to learn, collect data, and prepare for some action there.

By the way, minutes ago phenomenal turnaround for Camillo Placì's Hebar team in the Volleyball Champions League. Agencies, unlike other Hebar's matches, very well defended themselves, with weak odds and huge margins. Pinnacle also!
Warning, the match today, written that manner "Roeselare - Hebar" actually was held in Bulgaria, not in Belgium, and the next match tomorrow between the same teams also will be held in Bulgaria.
I don't imply any position to be open, Hebar produces weak games in the Champions League lately, but the Coach's genius sometimes saves them.

Earthquake in Nantes at the moment, at 16th minute they are two goals ahead PSG and their Atomic Trio Mbappe, Messi, Neymar. Triggers appeared across the markets on that event, due to usual scenarios on the pitch under Pochettino's governance so far.

Several hours to the kick-off time, Aris vs PAOK derby in Thessaloniki, the value for both the PAOK and the Aris teams disappeared slowly in several time intervals from opening the markets till now. For the traders, in the next interval hedging opportunities may arise. When it comes to the sporting analysis, there are several basic items to be properly evaluated - for instance, Lucescu's approach to balancing their power between PAOK's next important match (The second leg vs Midtjylland), and overcoming Aris, the best defense in Hellas today (excluding Olympiacos' defense, which is miles better). PAOK's attacking guns are most powerful so far in the domestic Championship, but from time to time not so efficient, wasting points and they are behind the dominant Olympiacos. On the other hand, have to be evaluated the probability for any given Mantzios' approach to attacking the top 6 before the next stage of the Super League, starting from today.

Andy Murray often appears in matches, when some value is spotted.

Let's considerin' very many variables, such as his age, racing spirit, health problems, the range of career matches and decisions, the very recent jumping in ATP ranking, and many more factors. At some matches, it's possible to compute manageable risk regarding that participant and to spot some value, offered by mistake by the agencies. Imagine some appearances of Pablo Cuevas, but multiplied by much more huge value, offered by the agencies.

Trading is a different case and much less risky activity, in the short-run time horizon, though.

Romanian soccer leagues - first and second tier, the potential of possibilities is very high, as usual.

For instance, when are applied to the Dinamo București team, the short, medium and long-term EMA-like analytics tools are among good basic instruments for the probability model regarding that team, preparing that object for deeper analytics in the operative model.
In the past, they were dominant alongside former the Steaua București team (now called the FCSB team), but for many years they're struggling to avoid many lower positions. Long-time analysis pretty perfectly fits the Dinamo București team, while medium-time EMA-like analytics tools are much fitting the CFR Cluj team.

Many short-time indicators are among the best analytics instruments for most of the teams in that country, such as former title holder and Cup holder Astra Giurgiu team. By the way, don't you find some similarities to cases, such as Kaiserslautern and Werder Bremen under Otto Rehhagel's governance, or Nottingham Forest under Brian Clough's management?

Gaz Metan Mediaș produced some value in some markets, due to the complex situation for that team.
That situation caused underdog-like published odds and easily conceded defeat away at Dinamo București, despite their technically better team at the championship earlier stages, but the financial crisis for G.Metan takes its tall. For the Dinamo position stakers , although very low odds in their favor, that situation produced some manageable ratio Risk/Reward and possibilities for bigger than usual stakes.
Much better value was caught in Gaz Metan Mediaș' win away at UTA Arad, and very best entry and exit points in their match vs CFR Cluj.

Circa 23rd of February some news around Gaz Metan Mediaș is possible. Maybe additional six points will be deducted (at the moment they are 2 points deducted) and a fine will be considered, due to the Mihai Teja case. That info will be incorporated into the odds.

When it comes to the second tier in Romania, there are several interesting teams also.
Hermannstadt is one of them, due to many reasons.
Another team, called CSA Steaua Bucureşti exist. If they qualify in the first tier, or in the Cup tournament in the future, there's some probability for large money flows in a hypothetical match between CSA Steaua Bucureşti and FCSB (former FC Steaua Bucureşti). Both the teams disputed the legacy of The Champions League title, won in1986, and all the history, related to the "Steaua" name.
By the way, a very similar case exists in Sofia, Bulgaria, there are two created circa 2016 teams - "CSKA-Sofia" and "CSKA-1948 Sofia", disputed the legacy of the former CSKA team, created in1948, insolvency announced in 2016.
Once Churchill was said: The Balkans produce more history than they can consume.

When considering entry positions in Romanian soccer, have to see the influence of various people, like Gigi Becali, Anamaria Prodan Reghecampf and others.

Almost the end of the regular stage of the Brasil Volleyball Men Championship has arisen now.

Apparently, the first two teams(Minas/FIAT and Sada/Cruzeiro) are building their strategies for the Play-Off stage of the Championship. I mean, the Cruzeiro team plays such manner, as they seem to avoid in the play-off stage the defending Championship title holder FUNVIC Natal. On the other side, the FUNVIC team has its class but struggling with some problems. That does not mean they are giving up at all. At this point, some probabilities may be built for all the teams, prior to the next stage of the Championship. Further, these probabilities are to be loaded by the proven in that Championship money management approach (plus/minus the expected statistical errors).

After some time, in the Play-Off stage, all the info has to be updated.

It's about to start the Play-Off stage of the Greek Super League. The Top 6 battle (and relegation group as well).
To mitigate the stats noise, several columns from the stats data have to be reevaluated and some of them - to be reset. First matches are useful for retrieving the new data purposes.

The interesting fact is that the agencies published slightly worsened probabilities for a home win for Olympiacos vs Aris, than PAOK's probability for home success vs PAS.
Maybe much more data and observations are needed to evaluate Burgos' approach at the Aris' helm. Olympiacos are out of Europe and now may think only about the domestic tournaments.
PAOK has to balance properly between the sure start of the Play-Off stage vs PAS Giannina now, and the second leg in Belgium next few days.
Maybe a potential (but not confirmed) absence of Paschalakis and Oliveira vs PAS and maybe vs KAA Gent. For me, at this moment it is unclear why -0.5 or -0.75 are the most relevant levels for Asian Handicap in Belgium accordin' to the several agencies now. Seekin' for slightly different entry points.

PAO vs. AEK Athens - there are no strong reliable signals so far.

Czech Championships, Banik Ostrava vs Karviná (the last team in the table), at the moment 1:3 after 67 mins. Minutes ago there were some interesting discrepancies and good entry points.
Bulgarian Championships, the weakest team in the table, Tsarsko Selo wins two points vs the first and the second teams in the table in the last two rounds. Dream odds in the markets.

Today spotted three strange-priced matches.
Soccer, Monaco vs PSG. Prematch AH +0.5 may be good, but PSG's appearance under Pochettino's management have a predictable manner when they're under strong attack and when the match goes in-play mode in some circumstances often produce good entry points so far in the French Championship.
Basketball, Spain. Real Madrid vs Manresa. Real, Barça and Manresa are divided by a few points in the table. On the other hand, last appearances and EMA-like analysis didn't advise publishing such odds like these before the match in Madrid today. After Real Madrid's advantage, something 12 points, was the ideal moment to enter here, and probably +15 in Manresa's favor was the first exit point to secure some profit for the conservative player. That match finished minutes ago.
A very similar mispriced pre-match event is Hellenic Basket A1, Kolossos Rodou vs PAO. Currently, the home team leads at half-time.
No matter the final result, due to misprised odds prematch, the player is guaranteed some profit, provided that at the kick-off proper entry point and money management were applied. Naturally, if a value bet was chosen, have to see the third and fourth quarters and may risk some profit if PAO accelerates. Interestingly, at this moment (half-time), the Handicap moves between +2 and +2.5 points.

After the decisions by the ECA Shareholders Executive Board, it's very interesting to analyze possibilities to enter the top 8 in Euroleague Basketball, before the next stage (The Play-Offs). Interested in variations regardin' these teams: Maccabi, Monaco, Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Basconia. Starting positions, the current positions, possibilities, sporting potential, schedule, and other factors may generate some triggers before the Play-Offs.
Another intriguing team in the Euroleague and in the domestic Championships is Real Madrid, what happened to that team recently and how the model will evaluate their performance? Some scenarios are in use already in the model.

How would you capitalise this analysis?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 25, 2022 7:14 am

How would you capitalise this analysis?

@Arbusers,

I'll try to explain my view regarding that situation and how to try to enter here.
According to that decision of the Board, three teams are off of the battle - annulated from the tournament are UNICS, CSKA and Zenit teams. Therefore the battle for the Play-Off stage (Top Eight) in the final rounds has involved some teams and some of them are more motivated now. In my view, the teams I pinpointed in my previous posting, no matter if they have the probability to qualify for the top 8 or not, are motivated to accelerate their performance. That means some value for them due to sponsorship and financial reasons for the future. Therefore their future matches hypothetically may produce some value to the players in terms of betting. The teams already sure for the Play-Offs are not so interesting (or may have "rest" in a match, when the bettors do not await that, but the agencies maybe know that, despite the odds do not imply that).
In my view, the penultimate decision of the Board (point two from last month) implies the probability to cancel the annulation under some political condition (if the war stop). After the ultimate decision some days ago, that is impossible and these mentioned teams must accelerate to their full potential.
At that point, after the final decision of the Board, the players have to rethink motivation, schedule, sporting potential, current standings position, and so forth in the final rounds in the regular stage of the Euroleague Basketball. The next stage for the players is to give a proper weight of every factor and further to compile some own odds.
And proper money management if the entry and exit points are considered.
Another idea is possible. I'm personally intrigued by the groups of similar situations and their real outcomes, from the statistical point of view. After the groups of similar situations in the years, might be done an assessment of the probabilities of every outcome.
I mean, when in the past matches in the years, when saw similar kinds of situations (many teams battle for several places, not only basketball matches), how the situations are evolved. The pitfalls are possible here - no one situation is like another; every team has different sporting power; the mental strength of the players in the pitch is not the same; off-the-pitch hidden factors must be accounted (an almost impossible task for the minor betting player, indeed) and others.
Another pitfall is possible - after every round, some data must be updated, but some data must be saved and accumulated. The proper distinguishing is needed. And the right weight assigned to every factor is a problem, too.
That story in short - after the final Board decision, more teams are interested in accelerating their performance. The bettor player hypothetically may spot some selected teams, to see their performance, to make some statistical processing, to distinguish properly the statistical noise from the real data, to compile (if possible) their own odds, and to build their own entry/exit points. Money management is at the end of this process and always is an important task. And observations in similar situations (many non-so-strong teams battle for a few valuable places at the bottom) if properly estimated, may generate some ideas.
And if you ask for Real Madrid in the posting above - I mean their tend-to-mediocrity appearances lately, most of them in the Spaniard Championships for the very big odds. If the player watches regularly Real Madrid's matches and Pablo Laso's orders and their current implementations by the players, and the opponent's current performance
in the given match, are there possibilities for successful entry points sometimes or not? And next stage is to reevaluate historically all the observations by the player and all the successful and unsuccessful decisions regarding the entry/exit points and to evolve further.

@ Arbusers,

And now, the direct answer to your question - personally I'm first tryin' to collect appropriate data and watch the selected by my criteria teams: Maccabi, Monaco, Crvena Zvezda, Fenerbahce, Basconia. I mean several scenarios. Every one of these teams has bigger or lesser resources. After every round reassesses some things and therefore the probability for the next match and the touch the Play-Off phase. Watch them when going in-running mode. Making an assessment regarding some scenarios trade the entry/exit points, described above. Willin' to make fewer errors and to make more successful estimations. The errors are unavoidable and I'm willing to learn a lot. That is a continuous process so far.
Trying to estimate their potential pre-match and in in-running mode. And backtesting every scenario and the errors in some way. Not to mention lots of own buildin' data sets, most of them are among the usual statistical data, but some of them are my own ideas and have to be time-proven or to be refused in the long haul.
Regarding Real Madrid's recent matches, for instance, while I was puzzled and not properly estimated the probabilities about the meltdowns vs MoraBancAndorra in 3rd quarter and another meltdown vs Baskonia (again in 3rd quarter), the somehow mispriced odds vs Manresa (Moneyline), and vs Crvena Zvezda away (AH) and vs Valencia Basket (AH) produced some successful triggers. The probability for the home team acceleration in the final quarter vs Maccabi away also was "caught". Very acceptable Risk/Reward ratio here. Willing to learn some things and have to adjust a little bit to the operative model.
Regretfully all this is time-consuming. I have no resources like the agencies and the sports metrics statistical departments. Nevertheless, when I have some more time, that's a pleasant and funny task. Let's see what'll happen in the future.

Spain ACB. Circa 12 percent of successful three-pointers more for Barça, but most of the important statistical indicators are in Murcia's favor till now, currently in the third quarter of the game. Awaiting for some quality attempts for visitor's attack later in the final ten minutes and entry point if the R/R ratio becomes better, but the agencies' odds are disappointing at the moment.