Arbusers

The aforementioned match is over, now a little recap.

Despite the very successful attack of the Asian handicap markets after the time of the first goal scored and somewhere at the beginning of the second half, there were errors in today's Model settings:
- Wrong value pre-estimation of attacking the "Both Teams to Score" market at the moment of touching 2.6 odds.
- Unsuccessful "prediction" of all moves by Ivan Jovanović (I didn't expect both Verbič & Mancini out in the middle of the second half!).
- Absent of probability pre-estimation of Jonathan Menendez's appearance on the pitch. I awaited other decisions from Mantzios. My error, actually.

Some positives in today's settings-according to my anticipation:
- In the second half the Green were attacking much more on the right flank.
- The terrible defense of the Aris team when it comes to circa 55 percent left attacking flank by PAO during the first half, was corrected in the second half. That also gave me some ideas for supporting the AH.

Some of my rationale behind the risky positions in the AH markets today: as I said in the previous post, I spotted some constant decisions by Jovanović no matter whether his team is a temporary leader or not at the moment when some decisions have to be changed. In the Model, there were inputted some data for PAO in the 2022/23 season, bearing in mind:
- The period of the initial 26 matchdays, they finished on the top.
- Championship Group (matchdays 27-36), the AEK team displaced them from the top.

The lessons learned today will evolve in the next matchday's settings.

Yesterday we had the Heat Vs Bucks game in Florida.
You might remember last year's play offs when Heat prevailed against Bucks simply because Giannis was injured. This injury could be discussed for years BTW. But it was obvious to me that Bucks were far better team than Heat.
This year Bucks are re-inforced in the 3 points line and this gives them an additional advantage. So I had a small pre game bet for Bucks. The bet stood till the end of the game and I didn't have to change anything, even when Heat was 5 points ahead. At the same time, because of the tight score I didn't have the opportunity to trade.
So the game finished favourably for me. Lillard was the man of the game, and I can't wait to see Chris Middleton being the Middleton I remember 2 years ago before his injuries.

Well, The Asian Champions League is so stunning, as usual.
I personally didn't expect three goals in the initial eight minutes in four matches at the moment.
The profit from the early covered BTTS market (covered before the expected time point) in the game "Kofu vs Melbourne City" will be re-invested after the 30th minute in the game "Urawa Red Diamonds vs Wuhan Three Towns" according to the pre-selected Asian Handicap calculation.

Although the majority of the predicted attacked markets for Asian Handicap were covered by the Urawa Red Diamonds team under the management of the Polish coaching duo Skorża & Janas, after today's Urawa vs Wuhan TT match, the current Model trigger advised me to stop that due to high risk, until the Sanfrecce Hiroshima team would be overcome or not in the battle for 3rd place (J1 League) and also in the future games of the Asian Champions League.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:05 am

Yesterday we had the Heat Vs Bucks game in Florida.
You might remember last year's play offs when Heat prevailed against Bucks simply because Giannis was injured. This injury could be discussed for years BTW. But it was obvious to me that Bucks were far better team than Heat.
This year Bucks are re-inforced in the 3 points line and this gives them an additional advantage. So I had a small pre game bet for Bucks. The bet stood till the end of the game and I didn't have to change anything, even when Heat was 5 points ahead. At the same time, because of the tight score I didn't have the opportunity to trade.
So the game finished favourably for me. Lillard was the man of the game, and I can't wait to see Chris Middleton being the Middleton I remember 2 years ago before his injuries.

Hiya Admin,

I spotted your comment but I was quite busy all day with a lot of markets
Bucks, Heat & Celtics are among the most interesting Basket teams ever. My brief opinion:
- As you said, The Bucks are much stronger than Miami these days than the odds imply. I didn't choose to participate in that market, so I didn't model it. But you're right.
- I'm disgusted with the way the owners of the Milwaukee Bucks fired Budenholzer, he only needed 2-3 more years before he made the Bucks a sustainable sporting Legend!
- In my opinion, Spoelstra is the last of the Mohicans who believes in the greatness of the Miami Heat team. But I think the owners and operative directors are disinterested in smartly cash injecting and prefer to keep the team in the cryo-chamber i.e. in the "above-the-mediocrity" status and generously wish the best of luck to their own players in the Play-Offs, what a shame!
All the Miami 2022/23 Play-Offs' great performance and reaching the NBA 2023 Final by a miracle, is about the energy and the passion of the Last Miami Mohican, Spoelstra.
The start of the current season is the same as the last, I hope that Pat Riley has influence over the owners to change that madness, but...
I hope they'll avoid the San Antonio Spurs' last 9-year pattern to the downside...if Spoelstra & Riley remain at all.

That's why I generally avoid watching the Heat & Bucks that season...

AEK Athens vs Brighton & Hove has just started.

Initially, I assigned more weight to De Zerbi's tactical flexibility in general, and also when he works under negative scenarios on the pitch. Here I see AEK's coach Almeyda as more conservative (and much more predictable) and less flexible when some negative scenarios come.

Secondly, I tried to model the aforementioned things and tons of other data and observations (both AEK and Brighton are very well televised), bearing in mind the current players that Almeyda and De Zerbi have at their disposal tonight.

The Model shaped a few of the most probable scenarios tonight in Athens for additional processing by me, but I have some hesitations about how exactly to react if that case happens - the AEK team is seeking to score a second goal at any cost.

Will De Zerbi simply try to mitigate the late AEK attacks without taking additional risks, or will take more risks, counting AEK's defensive department's vulnerability through the central zone and also after corners? In my opinion, the first scenario is not very likely, even in a case of current result in Brighton's favor, unless a red card is conceded by them.

Anyone modeled here?

Czech Premier League, Sparta Prague vs Teplice now.

The early red card was an unexpected gift for all Asian Handicap hunters, and then the goal opened up all the possibilities to extend it according to your preliminary strategy.

This year, Santa Claus decided to start giving gifts not from Lapland, but from the Letná Stadium in Prague.
My advice is to use common sense and hedge some relevant positions due to the canceled second goal in favor of Teplice.

1Lig Göztepe vs Eyüpspor is coming later that day.
The SuperLig promotion battle between those teams (currently 3rd and 1st) caught my attention.
Circa 16 hours before the start of that clash, a release-candidate-version of the Model's tune-ups was chosen. Those tune-ups were carefully selected, based on the large Stats info and my personal interpretation of plenty of qualitative data.
Some of the key milestones that helped the preliminary analysis were as follows:
- From what I've spotted so far, Arda Turan's team is in the stage of relative maturity, handling most of the cases of the pitch much more adequately and effortlessly than most teams do in 1Lig so far, almost all of their matches, while Stanimir Stoilov's team has been under the "new-coach-quick-acceleration" effect last 4 games. That would be a good starting point to build some probabilities;
- The members of Eyüpspor's defensive department usually overlap with each other in a very qualitative way, except for some counterattacks against them;
- Göztepe's defensive department is the best so far in 1Lig, but take in mind the approach of the new coach to take the play much further into the opponent's box, also minimizing the number of dedicated defenders;
- Arda Turan occasionally ordered some changes in attacking style and possession when needed, Eyüpspor's attacking style is more difficult to neutralize and also through efficiency and lack of unnecessary movements.
- Caution here - in my opinion, the loss vs Bandırmaspor was due to extreme nervousness resulted in a lot of gaming errors (mainly in defense), while the loss vs Sakaryaspor was simply a deviation in the game distribution (i.e. σ case for further backtest and estimation) after the good game and the disallowed goal;
- Stoilov disrupted the previous coach's defensive-oriented style and ordered a press style and semi-aggressive attack so far. The result is 100 percent success so far (3 games 1Lig, 1 game Cup);
- However, I spotted a lower Göztepe's attacking speed and pressing efficiency than the previous low-ranked teams coached by Stoilov, when those teams played pretty OK vs much stronger teams at the home pitch - vs Benfica, vs PAOK, vs Olympiakos & APOEL, pretty OK home match vs Rodgers' Celtic and other examples;
- One of the best players Nukan is on the bench now under Stoilov, I'll await starting line-ups for the final Model tune-up;
- Sometimes a quite long number of one-type quick attacks were spotted even they're already guessed by the opponent.
Assessments of those and many other things would help build the right probabilities and calculate the right odds. Not to mention the rich quantitative Statistics here.

Hey! How are you?
I was wondering if the time to the game begins is an issue to you. If you pay atention or consider that in the making of a bet?
thank you!!

Daniel Goulart wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:34 pm

Hey! How are you?
I was wondering if the time to the game begins is an issue to you. If you pay atention or consider that in the making of a bet?
thank you!!

Excuse me, could you elaborate? If you have different time zones in mind, it is sometimes a big problem, but not an insurmountable problem.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:50 pm

Daniel Goulart wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:34 pm

Hey! How are you?
I was wondering if the time to the game begins is an issue to you. If you pay atention or consider that in the making of a bet?
thank you!!

Excuse me, could you elaborate? If you have different time zones in mind, it is sometimes a big problem, but not an insurmountable problem.

I mean, it is a problem if you place bets in games that will occur only 20 days further? Or do you choose games that don't have to wait this long. I think of that in a perspective of a bankroll, to don't let money stuck for a long period of time.
Thoughts of a newbie haha

Daniel Goulart wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:10 pm

arb12 wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:50 pm

Daniel Goulart wrote: ↑

Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:34 pm

Hey! How are you?
I was wondering if the time to the game begins is an issue to you. If you pay atention or consider that in the making of a bet?
thank you!!

Excuse me, could you elaborate? If you have different time zones in mind, it is sometimes a big problem, but not an insurmountable problem.

I mean, it is a problem if you place bets in games that will occur only 20 days further? Or do you choose games that don't have to wait this long. I think of that in a perspective of a bankroll, to don't let money stuck for a long period of time.
Thoughts of a newbie haha

Hiya again,
In my view, it's not an ideal occasion when a big percentage of the available capital is locked in time, causing you to lack operative short-term funds.
But you should measure the risk, if the Net Present Value allows you big long-term capital.

Yesterday we had the best game in the history of Euroleague. It was Real Madrid Vs Anadolu Efes. Those who watched it live will remember it for many many years. It is a pity that European referees are of such a low quality. Allow me to say, these referees are not at the level of these players...sorry if i disturb some.
Maybe we should import referees from the US? Just an idea.
How do we know the game is freed from Mafia?

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:06 pm

Yesterday we had the best game in the history of Euroleague. It was Real Madrid Vs Anadolu Efes. Those who watched it live will remember it for many many years. It is a pity that European referees are of such a low quality. Allow me to say, these referees are not at the level of these players...sorry if i disturb some.
Maybe we should import referees from the US? Just an idea.
How do we know the game is freed from Mafia?

I bet on it. ahahha