arbusers wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:06 pmYesterday we had the best game in the history of Euroleague. It was Real Madrid Vs Anadolu Efes. Those who watched it live will remember it for many many years. It is a pity that European referees are of such a low quality. Allow me to say, these referees are not at the level of these players...sorry if i disturb some.
Maybe we should import referees from the US? Just an idea.
How do we know the game is freed from Mafia?
Congratulations to the lucky ones who were in Real Madrid's hall.
You'll have great memories of this legendary battle for a really long time!
Reading your post, let me share some side impressions outside of this encounter RM vs Efes.
For the period from October 2023 to the end of December'23, my still unchanged basketball Model detected some hypothetical changes by the odds compilers in the leagues I follow.
- It's a common fact that the natural leaders were usually offered by hyper-favored pre-match odds, i.e.
(1) hyper-cut odds than the real calculated ones for the favorites, and
(2) sometimes bad odds and sometimes valuable odds for their opponents.
On (1) and (2) you have to overcome the applied pre-match margin and worsened live margin, of course, so the value in (2) more often happened than in (1). One example of the spotted value in (1) is when the Minotaurs sometimes help by pumping up occasionally the Favorites' odds.
- However, I'm under the subjective impression that odds compilers in general are testing their model evolution or simply they're adjusting the odds better from the pre-autumn 2023 period. Why?
According to my calculations in some markets, there are fewer hypothetically published value odds than before.
But that tendency (if it exists at all) is less visible in the NBA and Euroleague than in other championships.
Some value market examples from the GBL A1, Autumn 2023.
On one hand, the agencies offered very generous odds I accepted for those four clashes triggered for me by my Model, and those odds overcame the calculated and accepted level of my risk, such as AEK vs Lavrio 93:98 (odds really OMG!!!), PAOK vs Promitheas Patras 80:95, PAOK vs Peristeri 69:64 and naturally Olympiakos vs PAO 54:66 (Ataman's fourth-quarter-attack was successful, here pre-match odds were OMG again!), but on the other hand, till the 31st of December'23 I was unable to see such kinds of offers at that level of risk.
Again, that's my subjective impression regarding the odds compilers, there is a likelihood that my Model to appear out-of-date and new tune-ups need to be introduced someday, who knows?
The NBA & EuroLeague Basketball,
I remember the Spring 2023 odds in the NBA. The Miami Heat's value in their odds in the Playoffs '23 was like a dream, vs Celtics, vs Bucks (but no offered value vs NY Knicks at all).
In my opinion, the agencies offered highly negative expected value at odds below 1.20 for Real Madrid vs Anadolu Efes (130:126), 4pts diff, and also for Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs (125:121), again 4pts diff at the end. I think the offered odds for Efes and Spurs were unacceptable, too. So, the trading is much more acceptable than attacking value markets here.
Due to your mention of the quality of the referees' job at Real vs Efes, I think that Real Madrid Basketball has always been surrounded by unacceptable things over the years, for and against that team:
- Real Madrid (reserves?) vs CSKA Moscow 71:65 at the odds for Real >4 in Pinn & Asia as far as I remember. I hope Dimitris Itoudis will reveal in his memoirs the truth about why his team had to lose. I'll never forget his look during the 4th quarter...
- Real Madrid vs Crvena Zvezda 77:79, the "Favorite" was priced below 1.15 here...
- Real Madrid vs Partizan Belgrade 98:94, the 5th PlayOff, the "eliminated" difference of minus 18 points at the end of that match, and the unusually calm Željko Obradović...
- The disgusting way Real threw out the legend Pablo Laso... Here I remember Budenholzer and the Bucks.
- Real Madrid vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 72:70, referee's scandal about the substitution in the last minute.
And so on.
Now back to calculating the value.
And both Olympiakos & Panathinaikos teams have always been magnetic in the GBL A1 and Euroleague.
Still processing data here after every round. The departure of both Sasha Vezenkov & Kostas Sloukas expectedly caused some breaching in the Bartzokas' fortress in the Euroleague and I'm still trying to forecast the next breakthrough likelihood.
When it comes to the Panathinaikos team, I'm focused on processing in the Model the new attempt to build a great team, additional estimations and data about the unexpected appointments of Ataman & Sloukas plus Lessort. And I'm still wondering what would be the contemporary case in the Euroleague if Sloukas had accepted the Obradović offer to join Partizan Belgrade...
And finally, let me tell you about one of my endless experiments.
Here I mean some additional filters, aiming to help the best in-depth estimation and forecast to some extent. That's called jokingly Project Rubicon.
One of the plenty of filters I can afford to mention here is the overall tactical and sporting performance of the currently evaluated team vs the well-chosen teams, giving us plenty of various Stats and also qualitative info.
In 2023 for good Stats reasons, I chose the Valencia Basket & Saski Baskonia teams and removed Olimpia Armani Milan as one of the evaluating filters in the Rubicon.
Ironically, PAO as a slight underdog overcame the Valencia team (again as expected during Ataman's preferred 4th quarter, 82:81) but failed that test as a slight Favorite vs Baskonia 73:75.
And plenty of others.