Arbusers

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:06 pm

Yesterday we had the best game in the history of Euroleague. It was Real Madrid Vs Anadolu Efes. Those who watched it live will remember it for many many years. It is a pity that European referees are of such a low quality. Allow me to say, these referees are not at the level of these players...sorry if i disturb some.
Maybe we should import referees from the US? Just an idea.
How do we know the game is freed from Mafia?

Congratulations to the lucky ones who were in Real Madrid's hall.
You'll have great memories of this legendary battle for a really long time!

Reading your post, let me share some side impressions outside of this encounter RM vs Efes.
For the period from October 2023 to the end of December'23, my still unchanged basketball Model detected some hypothetical changes by the odds compilers in the leagues I follow.
- It's a common fact that the natural leaders were usually offered by hyper-favored pre-match odds, i.e.
(1) hyper-cut odds than the real calculated ones for the favorites, and
(2) sometimes bad odds and sometimes valuable odds for their opponents.
On (1) and (2) you have to overcome the applied pre-match margin and worsened live margin, of course, so the value in (2) more often happened than in (1). One example of the spotted value in (1) is when the Minotaurs sometimes help by pumping up occasionally the Favorites' odds.
- However, I'm under the subjective impression that odds compilers in general are testing their model evolution or simply they're adjusting the odds better from the pre-autumn 2023 period. Why?
According to my calculations in some markets, there are fewer hypothetically published value odds than before.
But that tendency (if it exists at all) is less visible in the NBA and Euroleague than in other championships.

Some value market examples from the GBL A1, Autumn 2023.
On one hand, the agencies offered very generous odds I accepted for those four clashes triggered for me by my Model, and those odds overcame the calculated and accepted level of my risk, such as AEK vs Lavrio 93:98 (odds really OMG!!!), PAOK vs Promitheas Patras 80:95, PAOK vs Peristeri 69:64 and naturally Olympiakos vs PAO 54:66 (Ataman's fourth-quarter-attack was successful, here pre-match odds were OMG again!), but on the other hand, till the 31st of December'23 I was unable to see such kinds of offers at that level of risk.

Again, that's my subjective impression regarding the odds compilers, there is a likelihood that my Model to appear out-of-date and new tune-ups need to be introduced someday, who knows?

The NBA & EuroLeague Basketball,
I remember the Spring 2023 odds in the NBA. The Miami Heat's value in their odds in the Playoffs '23 was like a dream, vs Celtics, vs Bucks (but no offered value vs NY Knicks at all).
In my opinion, the agencies offered highly negative expected value at odds below 1.20 for Real Madrid vs Anadolu Efes (130:126), 4pts diff, and also for Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs (125:121), again 4pts diff at the end. I think the offered odds for Efes and Spurs were unacceptable, too. So, the trading is much more acceptable than attacking value markets here.

Due to your mention of the quality of the referees' job at Real vs Efes, I think that Real Madrid Basketball has always been surrounded by unacceptable things over the years, for and against that team:
- Real Madrid (reserves?) vs CSKA Moscow 71:65 at the odds for Real >4 in Pinn & Asia as far as I remember. I hope Dimitris Itoudis will reveal in his memoirs the truth about why his team had to lose. I'll never forget his look during the 4th quarter...
- Real Madrid vs Crvena Zvezda 77:79, the "Favorite" was priced below 1.15 here...
- Real Madrid vs Partizan Belgrade 98:94, the 5th PlayOff, the "eliminated" difference of minus 18 points at the end of that match, and the unusually calm Željko Obradović...
- The disgusting way Real threw out the legend Pablo Laso... Here I remember Budenholzer and the Bucks.
- Real Madrid vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 72:70, referee's scandal about the substitution in the last minute.
And so on.

Now back to calculating the value.
And both Olympiakos & Panathinaikos teams have always been magnetic in the GBL A1 and Euroleague.
Still processing data here after every round. The departure of both Sasha Vezenkov & Kostas Sloukas expectedly caused some breaching in the Bartzokas' fortress in the Euroleague and I'm still trying to forecast the next breakthrough likelihood.
When it comes to the Panathinaikos team, I'm focused on processing in the Model the new attempt to build a great team, additional estimations and data about the unexpected appointments of Ataman & Sloukas plus Lessort. And I'm still wondering what would be the contemporary case in the Euroleague if Sloukas had accepted the Obradović offer to join Partizan Belgrade...

And finally, let me tell you about one of my endless experiments.
Here I mean some additional filters, aiming to help the best in-depth estimation and forecast to some extent. That's called jokingly Project Rubicon.
One of the plenty of filters I can afford to mention here is the overall tactical and sporting performance of the currently evaluated team vs the well-chosen teams, giving us plenty of various Stats and also qualitative info.
In 2023 for good Stats reasons, I chose the Valencia Basket & Saski Baskonia teams and removed Olimpia Armani Milan as one of the evaluating filters in the Rubicon.
Ironically, PAO as a slight underdog overcame the Valencia team (again as expected during Ataman's preferred 4th quarter, 82:81) but failed that test as a slight Favorite vs Baskonia 73:75.

And plenty of others.

The NBA bottom fishes' derby is goin' to start within an hour. San Antonio @ Detroit caught my attention with slightly different custom-made Stats processing.

In order to help build my true pre-match analysis in that very specific matchup, I decided to add simple moving averages to selected past periods along with the usually proven custom sets of long-term and short-term exponential moving averages and other types of exponential-like curves. Why? The assigned set of EMA 1, EMA 2, ... EMA (N)..., and also exponential-similar ones, if applied to the data of different NBA teams, returns better analytical results ready for inclusion in the Model. But when it comes to the Spurs and Pistons (and some others), the specific past data I've been observing closely would be given too little weight by the EMA. For example, I wouldn't sacrifice tons of useful info from these - Rockets @ Spurs, Spurs @ Suns and again Spurs @ Suns days later, as well as Pistons @ Hornets and Pistons vs Bulls, all these from October and November '23.
On the other hand, for the purpose of qualitative analysis, have to stress the assigned assessments and generated probabilities, affected by the latest stability improvement attempt (better on-the-pitch behavior) by Popovich, and also the removing the burden of a record streak loss vs the Raptors and the "Quo Vadis" state, applied to the Pistons thereafter.

And so on, and so on...

Euroleague Basketball, I'm so impressed with these matches that ended a few hours ago.

- Partizan Belgrade vs Maccabi Tel Aviv 88:79,
An ideal testing ground for various experiments was that! The chosen tune-ups were based on the hypothesis that Maccabi's short-term sporting form is slowly declining, while Partizan's is fluctuating, proven by tens of graphics (technical analysis) and tons of data.
While the practical implementation of some balance management (offensive/defensive departments) was assigned solid estimations against Virtus despite losing 75:77, the first and especially the last quarter vs Fenerbahçe (loss 91:76) and almost the whole match vs Crvena Zvezda (loss 88:72) gave us a clear picture of some limits of strengths and reveal old weaknesses, i.e. the urgent tasks on which Obradović is obliged to work (remember Mathias Lessort's quality job is missing after his moving to Panathinaikos Basketball, and Kevin Punter himself is not a magical match-deciding-player).
The way Fenerbahçe handled Maccabi 109:74 and especially the decomposition of the analysis of the second quarter gave us not only the leading probability why Partizan is a favorite vs Maccabi, but also the sporting and tactical rationale behind that. However, I cannot explain at all the lackluster Partizan play that led to a collapse in the 1st quarter and even in the 2nd, until 15:39 or something, when they began slowly awakening.
So, despite the overall good forecasting in Partizan's favor (the valuable pre-match AH (-6.5) was covered at the end), the first half events weren't correctly pre-drawn by today's settings, and apparently new improvements here are required someday, in order to mitigate at some extent likelihoods of the inevitable errors.

- The Rubicon project,
The benchmarking usability of the Saski Baskonia team is extremely good and raising, Valencia Basket also OK at the moment.
The Brownian motion of some data flows was again observed today (Saski Baskonia vs Olympiakos 80:69), which provided us with various things for future analysis, but too different from data flow Baskonia vs Panathinaikos days ago, so the potential of that experimental benchmark could be more than expected in the end if long-term processing quality of RAW data is confirmed one day.
I rejected the use of these two benchmarks against the other two Spanish teams due to possible data distortion.

ATP Australian Open,
The most valuable live odds at the prematch predefined level of risk for Djokovic vs Prižmić were at circa 1.16, much higher than the initial starting level of odds (I mean the main market here), but the most interesting triggers here were the unusual number of lost serves for the current ATP 1 vs ATP 178. Even the first serve during the tiebreak in the 2nd set caused a lot of market positions following the signals on the graphics.
Additionally, there were internal mini-series in the 3rd and 4th sets in that clash - ATP 1 vs ATP 178, which generated a lot of extremely interesting secondary data for further post-analysis and preparation for the next games.

Euroleague Basketball, Crvena Zvezda (pre-match favorite) vs Saski Baskonia at the moment, seconds to go.
As seen occasionally in some previous matches over the years in Belgrade, an early home team advantage of circa 10 points was blown for an unknown reason...
In my view, the Rubicon here was 2:11 in the third quarter and par score 54:54 in the overall result at that moment, it seemed like Sfairopoulos, at last, implied the right winning tactics till 60:56, but at the end of third quarter everything was clear in terms of long-term Crvena Zvezda's mentality, no matter of the final score today...

EuroLeague Basketball,
I'm still analyzing what I saw hours ago PAO vs Partizan Belgrade, is it possible for the currently better team to postpone its current home sporting dominance until the fourth quarter for some reason?
It's clear Željko Obradović is the factor that keeps Partizan in the high-level game that year, it's clear statistically that Ataman in the fourth quarter mainly does some things, but watching that game again and again, I don't explain why exactly both teams held the real battle till the final quarter when they showed real differences in quality, although well-known differences in sporting power were more hinted at than made in the beginning of that game.

The game is changing. This season it became clear to me that iconic coaches like Obradovic, Itoudis, Ataman, they all belong to the previous generation. The game is changing in a faster pace than coaches.
Not sure about Sferopoulos. Saras is the new generation.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 20, 2024 8:33 am

The game is changing. This season it became clear to me that iconic coaches like Obradovic, Itoudis, Ataman, they all belong to the previous generation. The game is changing in a faster pace than coaches.
Not sure about Sferopoulos. Saras is the new generation.

What do you think about Vasilis?

Too early to say about Spanoulis. I believe the Greek national team is gambling with him. We need to see what he is able to do in the club level first before appointing him a post with bigger responsibilities. Let's hope he is good.

Do you remember exactly how Bayer'04 Leverkusen and their exceptional roster failed to win all three trophies (Champions League, Deutsche Pokal and Bundesliga) in about 10 days in the Spring of 2002?

The Project codenamed "Triple Play Revisited v.2.0" which I started somewhere in December was inspired by Bayer Leverkusen's good performance in all three major competitions they participate in nowadays (Deutsche Bundesliga & Pokal and also the Europa League). My idea here is to attempt to build the main probability matrix for Bayer'04 in all three tournaments, a quite few of the secondary matrices and cover all possible markets when the appropriate triggers occur. I use the following:
- Statistical processing of all available up-to-date quantitative data for Bayer'04 players and the current squad as a whole.
- Also qualitative assessments and data processing.
- Historical graphs and data in order to help me see some trends and calculate the probability of certain things happening/not happening or even this team creating a brand new achievement.
- Others.

The main problem here is the number of variables handled. When I reduced this number of variables, the triggers were significantly reduced, but their accuracy was increased. And vice versa, more variables, more triggers, but much less accuracy.
Even before the clashes Bayern vs Werder 0:1 and Bayer'04 vs Borussia M'gladbach 0:0, the first axis of the tripple play project (The Bundesliga competition) generated some triggers, but I registered some errors. For example, before yesterday's Bayer'04 vs. M'gladbach event, my Model triggered the leading probability (that outweighed the hypothetical risk) and accepted the "Under 2.5 goals" market (very true at the end of the game), but the main error before the match was the generated possibility of Draw and 1:1, instead of diggin' into calculating the probability of a true result Draw & 0:0.

The second and third axis (Deutsche Pokal and UEFA Europa League respectively) with the current experimental tune-ups generated some triggers, but the agencies did not offer the value odds here at all, therefore no market positions were opened in Bayer'04 matches vs Paderborn and vs Molde in December.
However, a slight change in the Model tune-ups would allow me to look for a hypothetical value of Asian Handicap market odds in the next few days in the second axis of my Project (quarter-final vs VfB Stuttgart), adjusting assessments by what I've seen in yesterday's matches Bayer vs M'gladbach and VfB vs Red Bull Leipzig.

Finally, regardless of the low weight given to past historical data, let me highlight the differences between Bayer'04 under Klaus Toppmöller in 2002 and under Xabier Alonso in 2024:
- Berti Vogts (Bayer'04 in 2001) and Toppmöller (Bayer'04 in 2002) inherited a top-notch demonstrating stable team developed by Christoph Daum himself - 2nd in 1997, 3rd in 1998, 2nd in 1999, 2nd in 2000.
- Alonso took the Bayer'04 helm in Autumn 2022 when Bayer was penultimate, the rest is History.
In addition, Alonso doesn't have the opportunity to use footballers such as the starry Bayer roster in 2002: Michael Ballack, Hans-Jörg Butt, Berbatov, Zé Roberto etc.

Ligue 1 at the moment,
Monaco vs Le Havre, from what I've seen so far, it is much better immediately to profitably close the positions in the pre-market AH (-0.75) and attack the interval between the 55th and 78th minutes in three different consecutive market positions in other markets according to current statistics and future substitutions.

Euroleague Basketball, Panathinaikos vs Fenerbahçe at the moment.

Shockingly low scoring pattern (endless missed shots) for one of the teams in O.A.K.A during the first quarter and also a very clear classic trading graphics (MoneyLine). The Spread market also has a clear turnaround.

Perfect moment for loading a lot of next market guns during the second quarter according to the current analysis, the liquidity is OK.

EuroLeague Basketball, 26th Round.

In my opinion, Ioannis Sfairopoulos (Crvena Zvezda Belgrade) and Željko Obradović (Partizan Belgrade) are severely limited by the available players class vs other teams in that competition. Here I don't mean at all the last outcomes Crvena Zvezda vs Žalgiris 91:93 & Partizan vs Bayern 78:79 by that three-pointer 0.8 seconds before the end.
I don't see both mentioned coaches staying in Belgrade unless there is a quality transfer offensive in the summer by both clubs.

In the next few days, I'm about to start calculating the correct probabilities for Partizan Belgrade's late attempt to attack the 7-10 position for the PlayOff phase, if it is possible for them. A head-to-head comparison between Partizan and Maccabi Tel Aviv's latest performance in terms of current sporting form, dozens of Stats and their attacking & defending dept estimations, aiming to build the right probabilities for those teams to qualify for the PlayOffs generates many interesting possibilities that should be thoroughly explored...

Also, one of the ongoing Projects I'm managing now is the Alba Berlin vs Lyon-Vlb battle to avoid the bottom. Some interesting triggers are likely, mainly in the Spread points market. Let's see the next games...

Also, despite I have some answers for Monaco vs Real 98:74, I haven't finished yet decomposing the game Olimpia Armani vs Real 81:76, aiming the answer not only why exactly Real again lost, but find the right answer to why Olimpia was leading vs Real by 19 pts at the halftime... In my view, Nikola Mirotić due to his top-notch level shouldn't waste his talent in Olimpia.

EPL, Man City vs Everton at the moment,
That's a pleasure to watch the tactical battle between Guardiola and Woan.
I personally changed on the fly some pre-match built Model parameters based on the playing behavior of Nathan Ake, Jarrad Brathwaite and James Tarkowski on the pitch. The AH market positions are under market attack now.

Guardiola vs Klopp battle for top spot in EPL,
I get the impression that Pep has the luxury of using specific long-term tactics backed by almost endless finances and stuff, while Klopp is forced to use all his weapons urgently, he's limited by time and other things.