Someone spoke about the Spanish mafia. They expand.
Real Madrid Leipzig for the Champions League.
Real Madrid Fenerbahce for the Euroleague.
How do you handle these kinds of situations?
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arbusers
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arbusers
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
I am coming back to Luka Doncic's stats, and why I believe he will overpass LeBron James in points. At the same time, I do not think he will take MJ's position as the GOAT. I will now explain why that is.
Overpassing LeBron. Doncic is aged 25 and started playing in the NBA at the age of just 18 coming from Europe. Lebron started his career in NBA at the age of 21 going through the regular way via St. Vincent–St. Mary High School. Thus, Doncic has an advantage of 3 years against LeBron.
Doncic averages 28.59 points in his career so far, while this season has an astonishing 34.6 average. His best years are yet to come and they are expected to be between the age of 28 and 32 where he expected to have his maximum performance. Because of the never ending changing of teams, LeBron was not able to have a peak in his career during the years of 28 and 32.
Doncic plays in a team where he is the unquestionable leader and there is no other player who will ask for a bigger part in points. This of course might change, in the same way that we see Giannis and Damian playing in the same team.
Doncic is not playing at positions 4 and 5 where players have a shorter career.
Not becoming the GOAT. Well, so far there is no indication that his team has plans for a championship. Of course that might change in the future. But it is hard for me to imagine a GOAT without championships and titles. MJ had championships in his back at the age of 25.
Lastly, because he is not an American, it will be difficult for any authority to accept that NBA's best player is a European. We already see that happening. In addition, we all know the corporate factor that asks for a black athlete to be the #1 that would push sales and other agendas further.
Time will tell.
Overpassing LeBron. Doncic is aged 25 and started playing in the NBA at the age of just 18 coming from Europe. Lebron started his career in NBA at the age of 21 going through the regular way via St. Vincent–St. Mary High School. Thus, Doncic has an advantage of 3 years against LeBron.
Doncic averages 28.59 points in his career so far, while this season has an astonishing 34.6 average. His best years are yet to come and they are expected to be between the age of 28 and 32 where he expected to have his maximum performance. Because of the never ending changing of teams, LeBron was not able to have a peak in his career during the years of 28 and 32.
Doncic plays in a team where he is the unquestionable leader and there is no other player who will ask for a bigger part in points. This of course might change, in the same way that we see Giannis and Damian playing in the same team.
Doncic is not playing at positions 4 and 5 where players have a shorter career.
Not becoming the GOAT. Well, so far there is no indication that his team has plans for a championship. Of course that might change in the future. But it is hard for me to imagine a GOAT without championships and titles. MJ had championships in his back at the age of 25.
Lastly, because he is not an American, it will be difficult for any authority to accept that NBA's best player is a European. We already see that happening. In addition, we all know the corporate factor that asks for a black athlete to be the #1 that would push sales and other agendas further.
Time will tell.
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
In my view, the probability order for Asian Handicap lines on PSG matches in the near-future period is slightly different than before.
Apparently, coach Luis Enrique is setting up the team for the post-Mbappé era.
Apparently, coach Luis Enrique is setting up the team for the post-Mbappé era.
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Inter Miami vs Nashville within less than two hours from now (Champions Cup of CONCACAF),
DC United vs Inter Miami these days, (Major League Soccer),
The whole MLS Season,
The "Miami Wave" Project was launched by me due to unique combinations of stable plus unstable elements. An extremely challenging Project to build a sustainable Model. For example:
- Serhiy Kryvtsov - OK;
...
- Sergio Busquets - OK; Age Factor 1;
- Jordi Alba - OK; Age Factor 1;
- Robert Taylor - OK in predictable Time Series;
...
- Luis Suárez - (yes, the same Luis Suárez from Grêmio!) - Pretty OK, Age Factor 2;
- Lionel Messi - Pretty OK, Age Factor 2;
...
- "Tata" Martino - A Natural Disaster such as "El Niño" EXCEPT when forced to follow common sense for a while. Same case as Dejan Radonjić in PAO Basketball, if that kind of comparison is acceptable to some extent.
And thousands of other arguments.
Any modelers here?
DC United vs Inter Miami these days, (Major League Soccer),
The whole MLS Season,
The "Miami Wave" Project was launched by me due to unique combinations of stable plus unstable elements. An extremely challenging Project to build a sustainable Model. For example:
- Serhiy Kryvtsov - OK;
...
- Sergio Busquets - OK; Age Factor 1;
- Jordi Alba - OK; Age Factor 1;
- Robert Taylor - OK in predictable Time Series;
...
- Luis Suárez - (yes, the same Luis Suárez from Grêmio!) - Pretty OK, Age Factor 2;
- Lionel Messi - Pretty OK, Age Factor 2;
...
- "Tata" Martino - A Natural Disaster such as "El Niño" EXCEPT when forced to follow common sense for a while. Same case as Dejan Radonjić in PAO Basketball, if that kind of comparison is acceptable to some extent.
And thousands of other arguments.
Any modelers here?
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
The "Spurs winter/spring'24" mini-project is currently underway, with new attempts aimed at better-calculated probabilities, but no sustained long-term proven success at the moment.
This work is just the old "Spurs autumn'23" but some new tune-ups have been loaded due to San Antonio's obviously improved games lately.
After some stop-loss/hedging operations (for example against City Thunder 132:118 and vs Rockets 101:103) I decided to introduce a narrow floating zone of preliminary estimates (Wembanyama and coach Popovich only) and a wide zone (floating point method) into the Model.
In addition, the increased relative weighting of long-term Charts and Statistics (carefully selected by me), plus an extreme solution - how exactly to interpolate the probabilities of Spurs finishing 2023/24 given the long-term Graphics for the period from 2013/14 till 2022/23 seasons plus the special charts and data for 1996/97 (20W/62L) - I have thousands of observations and that's why I made this decision.
The last 2 games, so far so good (I mean the Model's last triggers for San Antonio vs. Nuggets 106:117 and vs Nets 122:115), but the following hypothetical issues are in focus:
- Two fairly well "predicted" games are literally nothing for future behavior from here on out. The regular NBA'23/24 season is coming to an end, therefore "Spurs winter/spring'24" could be the basis for future Models about Spurs' 2024/25 season, provided the team core is relatively unchanged (The duo of Wembanyama/Popovich is required, otherwise the future Project is simply NULL).
- Changed basis of Money line forecasts have some hidden specifics despite their relativity to Spread markets to some extent.
- 14 games to go, and the primary task - true MoneyLine odds are in calculation now. The secondary task - the real probabilities of the Spurs winning at least 6 to avoid the balance of 1996/97 are under processing now, far before publishing by some in Vegas/Asia. Iterations/updates are needed. Not an easy task. No guarantee at all. But that mind task attempt is exceptional and joyful, as well as the core of that lovely Game!
-Regardless of the above (general MoneyLine markets), I think the Point Spread markets would calculate more true probabilities based on new experimental setups.
- Some hypothetical weapons for the attack of the Mavericks@ Spurs markets: the new experimental weight of Irving in the Model / the probability of Luka Dončić's reaching the maximum of his sporting form if San Antonio breaks Mavericks' initial plan considering his hamstring problem, and so forth.
This work is just the old "Spurs autumn'23" but some new tune-ups have been loaded due to San Antonio's obviously improved games lately.
After some stop-loss/hedging operations (for example against City Thunder 132:118 and vs Rockets 101:103) I decided to introduce a narrow floating zone of preliminary estimates (Wembanyama and coach Popovich only) and a wide zone (floating point method) into the Model.
In addition, the increased relative weighting of long-term Charts and Statistics (carefully selected by me), plus an extreme solution - how exactly to interpolate the probabilities of Spurs finishing 2023/24 given the long-term Graphics for the period from 2013/14 till 2022/23 seasons plus the special charts and data for 1996/97 (20W/62L) - I have thousands of observations and that's why I made this decision.
The last 2 games, so far so good (I mean the Model's last triggers for San Antonio vs. Nuggets 106:117 and vs Nets 122:115), but the following hypothetical issues are in focus:
- Two fairly well "predicted" games are literally nothing for future behavior from here on out. The regular NBA'23/24 season is coming to an end, therefore "Spurs winter/spring'24" could be the basis for future Models about Spurs' 2024/25 season, provided the team core is relatively unchanged (The duo of Wembanyama/Popovich is required, otherwise the future Project is simply NULL).
- Changed basis of Money line forecasts have some hidden specifics despite their relativity to Spread markets to some extent.
- 14 games to go, and the primary task - true MoneyLine odds are in calculation now. The secondary task - the real probabilities of the Spurs winning at least 6 to avoid the balance of 1996/97 are under processing now, far before publishing by some in Vegas/Asia. Iterations/updates are needed. Not an easy task. No guarantee at all. But that mind task attempt is exceptional and joyful, as well as the core of that lovely Game!
-Regardless of the above (general MoneyLine markets), I think the Point Spread markets would calculate more true probabilities based on new experimental setups.
- Some hypothetical weapons for the attack of the Mavericks@ Spurs markets: the new experimental weight of Irving in the Model / the probability of Luka Dončić's reaching the maximum of his sporting form if San Antonio breaks Mavericks' initial plan considering his hamstring problem, and so forth.
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
EuroLeague Basketball,
Despite I love to watch and analyze all the top-notch teams, some hypothetical irregularities almost pushed me away from further modelling them until the playoffs in Spring 2024 begin.
I didn't like the pseudo-serious play on the pitch of either Real vs Olimpia Armani 76:81 or Real vs Fenerbahçe 79:89. Outside of that tournament, I saw some strange things on the pitch in "encounter" Barça vs Breogán 85:88. And so on.
A very interesting task arose:
In my Model, I called the battle for the Top 6 (direct playoffs) the first-level probability Matrix.
Accordingly, the second-level probability Matrix is performed by teams "relegated" at the end from the Top 6, or successfully qualified through attacking from 11th place and below, or simply staying there (7th-10th place, which allows for much more tough playoffs).
In the final 5 games of the regular season (rounds 30 to 34), the original large array of probabilities of second-level Matrix was shortened for reasons of simplicity to the battle for the last possible playoff spot (10th), and the teams of Partizan, Valencia Basket, Bayern, Olimpia Armani, Anadolu Efes (covering a very large probability area, conditionally calculated >XY%) are included in the probability problem to solve.
Two very interesting series of matches are among the most attractive to watch and calculate - Anadolu Efes and Partizan Belgrade both start their last 5 matches with two consecutive home games: (R30) Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiakos Piraeus and (R31) Anadolu Efes vs. Alba Berlin, while (R30) Partizan Belgrade vs Saski Baskonia and (R31) Partizan Belgrade vs the very intriguing team of Real Madrid. Coach Obradović?
And so forth...
Despite I love to watch and analyze all the top-notch teams, some hypothetical irregularities almost pushed me away from further modelling them until the playoffs in Spring 2024 begin.
I didn't like the pseudo-serious play on the pitch of either Real vs Olimpia Armani 76:81 or Real vs Fenerbahçe 79:89. Outside of that tournament, I saw some strange things on the pitch in "encounter" Barça vs Breogán 85:88. And so on.
A very interesting task arose:
In my Model, I called the battle for the Top 6 (direct playoffs) the first-level probability Matrix.
Accordingly, the second-level probability Matrix is performed by teams "relegated" at the end from the Top 6, or successfully qualified through attacking from 11th place and below, or simply staying there (7th-10th place, which allows for much more tough playoffs).
In the final 5 games of the regular season (rounds 30 to 34), the original large array of probabilities of second-level Matrix was shortened for reasons of simplicity to the battle for the last possible playoff spot (10th), and the teams of Partizan, Valencia Basket, Bayern, Olimpia Armani, Anadolu Efes (covering a very large probability area, conditionally calculated >XY%) are included in the probability problem to solve.
Two very interesting series of matches are among the most attractive to watch and calculate - Anadolu Efes and Partizan Belgrade both start their last 5 matches with two consecutive home games: (R30) Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiakos Piraeus and (R31) Anadolu Efes vs. Alba Berlin, while (R30) Partizan Belgrade vs Saski Baskonia and (R31) Partizan Belgrade vs the very intriguing team of Real Madrid. Coach Obradović?
And so forth...
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Euroleague, Partizan Belgrade vs Saski Baskonia has finished,
Plenty of errors and therefore far away from sustainable quality produced by the EuroLeague Top 4 teams (even despite my reservations about the Monaco team). However, very good encounter for teams, residing at the end of the Top 10.
It was a pleasure to spot carefully the tactical battle between Željko Obradović and Duško Ivanović.
In my opinion, among the key achievements of coach Obradović specifically in that match were: killing Baskonia's usual comfortable fast attacking speed, limiting both the efficiency and the number of Baskonia's well-known long-distance shootings, the home team's unusually excellent defense today (compared to their last known sporting form), limiting Baskonia's fast shooting attempts (they often don't hesitate to shoot much earlier than the maximum allowed time they must attempt a field goal), the home team's supremacy in three-pointers and so on, and so forth.
Two of the strongest triggers for specific market intervention today were generated at that time (according to the predefined trading plan):
- Killing the eight-point advantage due to home team errors at the end of the second quarter (somewhere circa 44:42);
- The hidden hypothetically match-point-alike moment when Baskonia de facto failed to come very close with a big psychological pressure, missing a strategic shooting circa 15 or 16 seconds left in the 3rd quarter. Here market risk was pretty acceptable; In the very next attack the home team scored and the value was gone.
I think the critical moment for a possible turnaround (the moment circa 85:83, seconds to go, remember Baskonia never took the leading over Partizan from the match beginning) came with great unacceptable risk, considering the initial plan, the market positions at that moment and other things.
Plenty of errors and therefore far away from sustainable quality produced by the EuroLeague Top 4 teams (even despite my reservations about the Monaco team). However, very good encounter for teams, residing at the end of the Top 10.
It was a pleasure to spot carefully the tactical battle between Željko Obradović and Duško Ivanović.
In my opinion, among the key achievements of coach Obradović specifically in that match were: killing Baskonia's usual comfortable fast attacking speed, limiting both the efficiency and the number of Baskonia's well-known long-distance shootings, the home team's unusually excellent defense today (compared to their last known sporting form), limiting Baskonia's fast shooting attempts (they often don't hesitate to shoot much earlier than the maximum allowed time they must attempt a field goal), the home team's supremacy in three-pointers and so on, and so forth.
Two of the strongest triggers for specific market intervention today were generated at that time (according to the predefined trading plan):
- Killing the eight-point advantage due to home team errors at the end of the second quarter (somewhere circa 44:42);
- The hidden hypothetically match-point-alike moment when Baskonia de facto failed to come very close with a big psychological pressure, missing a strategic shooting circa 15 or 16 seconds left in the 3rd quarter. Here market risk was pretty acceptable; In the very next attack the home team scored and the value was gone.
I think the critical moment for a possible turnaround (the moment circa 85:83, seconds to go, remember Baskonia never took the leading over Partizan from the match beginning) came with great unacceptable risk, considering the initial plan, the market positions at that moment and other things.
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arbusers
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Some Euroleague teams look like tourists to me. I am wondering what Alba and Lyon are doing in this league. I m convinced there are teams not participating in this league who have more things to give and show.
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
San Marino vs St. Kitts & Nevis, second half now,
Offers with exceptional odds and decent liquidity are now provided by some Asians. Keep in mind that San Marino is FIFA Ranking 210th vs St. Kitts & Navis FIFA Ranking 147th, but the initial odds by some Asians...
Why did this match catch my attention?
The San Marino team has scored in four straight games including today (they started that streak vs Denmark in October, what a game!!!) and another outstanding hypothesis for them in the final minutes (provided that you know exactly what both teams are pursuing today, I mean Asian Handicap markets, O/U markets and so on).
Let's see what happens...
Offers with exceptional odds and decent liquidity are now provided by some Asians. Keep in mind that San Marino is FIFA Ranking 210th vs St. Kitts & Navis FIFA Ranking 147th, but the initial odds by some Asians...
Why did this match catch my attention?
The San Marino team has scored in four straight games including today (they started that streak vs Denmark in October, what a game!!!) and another outstanding hypothesis for them in the final minutes (provided that you know exactly what both teams are pursuing today, I mean Asian Handicap markets, O/U markets and so on).
Let's see what happens...
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arb12
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Post
Agreed!
I'm pretty sure Dejan Bodiroga as a brilliant basketball player knows this, but the corporate owners behind him dictate some business decisions.
As far as I know, there are two kinds of EuroLeague memberships - permanent and temporary ones (WildCard system) or something.
If they remove at least 4 or 6 teams with lower ability and the number of games in the season will be the same as today, the sports quality of the field will increase and they will play more games against each other in the season.
Another problem is the pointless tensions between the Euroleague and FIBA about the tournaments. I'm not sure at all if teams such as Promitheas Patras / Unicaja / Peristeri / Pınar Karşıyaka / Chemnitz / Budućnost substitute Alba/Lyon, they would be initially very competitive vs much more capital/budget available for the Top 6 teams in the Euroleague.
However, I'm pretty sure that historical EuroLeague legends such as Joventut Badalona / Cibona / Split and others should play there!
Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Agreed!
I'm pretty sure Dejan Bodiroga as a brilliant basketball player knows this, but the corporate owners behind him dictate some business decisions.
As far as I know, there are two kinds of EuroLeague memberships - permanent and temporary ones (WildCard system) or something.
If they remove at least 4 or 6 teams with lower ability and the number of games in the season will be the same as today, the sports quality of the field will increase and they will play more games against each other in the season.
Another problem is the pointless tensions between the Euroleague and FIBA about the tournaments. I'm not sure at all if teams such as Promitheas Patras / Unicaja / Peristeri / Pınar Karşıyaka / Chemnitz / Budućnost substitute Alba/Lyon, they would be initially very competitive vs much more capital/budget available for the Top 6 teams in the Euroleague.
However, I'm pretty sure that historical EuroLeague legends such as Joventut Badalona / Cibona / Split and others should play there!
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arb12
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Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
EuroLeague, Partizan Belgrade vs Real Madrid at the moment,
The main thing in my today's market tune-ups is the possible scenarios in the battle Mateo vs Obradović. Obradović's Partizan in 2023/24 lost Lessort/Papapetrou and Sloukas rejected the joining offer, but the Legendary Coach has a much more combinative Mind, leading a less capable team, while Mateo/Real case is the opposite.
I decided to experiment with some Spread markets, aiming for well-chosen "middles", supported by the pre-analysis as of today, counting recent sporting forms, rosters, and motivation.
Let's see what happens!
The main thing in my today's market tune-ups is the possible scenarios in the battle Mateo vs Obradović. Obradović's Partizan in 2023/24 lost Lessort/Papapetrou and Sloukas rejected the joining offer, but the Legendary Coach has a much more combinative Mind, leading a less capable team, while Mateo/Real case is the opposite.
I decided to experiment with some Spread markets, aiming for well-chosen "middles", supported by the pre-analysis as of today, counting recent sporting forms, rosters, and motivation.
Let's see what happens!
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arbusers
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Monaco and Bologna was not playing in this league some years ago, and look at them today.
I am sure there are wealthy people looking for an opportunity to entry in this business, and this is the key. Another key is thresholds to the numbers of non European players per team. I believe there should be a minimum number of (real) Europeans playing in each team. This would bring in more talents that would react in even stronger national teams.
Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
Monaco and Bologna was not playing in this league some years ago, and look at them today.
I am sure there are wealthy people looking for an opportunity to entry in this business, and this is the key. Another key is thresholds to the numbers of non European players per team. I believe there should be a minimum number of (real) Europeans playing in each team. This would bring in more talents that would react in even stronger national teams.
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arb12
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Addendum to the Alba/Lyon case:
In that situation, despite lower sporting quality when less capable teams are in the EuroLeague, there are opportunities for various market attacks. For example:
- The "bottom fishes" derbies are hard to the odds-compilers;
- Various non-standard Spread markets approaches by you, based on year-by-year observations;
- In a well-chosen by you array of XXX number of matches, the probability for YYY games and their markets, contains hidden value due to errors by the odds compilers. Naturally, MoneyLine is not the main market here.
- These teams are able to affect the first-level (respectively the second-level) probability Matrix and when your Model triggers this you can grab unique odds from the Asians every now and then; The computing of the probabilities of these occurrences isn't extremely hard if you watch and love that Game year-by-year;
- In some cases easy placing of some pre-defined odds;
- And so forth.
Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
arb12 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:36 pm
Agreed!
I'm pretty sure Dejan Bodiroga as a brilliant basketball player knows this, but the corporate owners behind him dictate some business decisions.
As far as I know, there are two kinds of EuroLeague memberships - permanent and temporary ones (WildCard system) or something.
If they remove at least 4 or 6 teams with lower ability and the number of games in the season will be the same as today, the sports quality of the field will increase and they will play more games against each other in the season.
Another problem is the pointless tensions between the Euroleague and FIBA about the tournaments. I'm not sure at all if teams such as Promitheas Patras / Unicaja / Peristeri / Pınar Karşıyaka / Chemnitz / Budućnost substitute Alba/Lyon, they would be initially very competitive vs much more capital/budget available for the Top 6 teams in the Euroleague.
However, I'm pretty sure that historical EuroLeague legends such as Joventut Badalona / Cibona / Split and others should play there!
Addendum to the Alba/Lyon case:
In that situation, despite lower sporting quality when less capable teams are in the EuroLeague, there are opportunities for various market attacks. For example:
- The "bottom fishes" derbies are hard to the odds-compilers;
- Various non-standard Spread markets approaches by you, based on year-by-year observations;
- In a well-chosen by you array of XXX number of matches, the probability for YYY games and their markets, contains hidden value due to errors by the odds compilers. Naturally, MoneyLine is not the main market here.
- These teams are able to affect the first-level (respectively the second-level) probability Matrix and when your Model triggers this you can grab unique odds from the Asians every now and then; The computing of the probabilities of these occurrences isn't extremely hard if you watch and love that Game year-by-year;
- In some cases easy placing of some pre-defined odds;
- And so forth.
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arb12
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Agreed to a very big extent. See the number of local players in Greek/Serbian teams, competing in the EuroLeague...
Beyond that, I wonder about the future petrodollar-backed non-European teams that will one day be the new members of the EuroLeague.
However, I think some cases such as Maccabi Tel Aviv have a positive influence over that League, and I imagine the hypothetical case if some day top-notch Philippine Basketball teams join. There are very classy basketball teams in that country, playing exciting games! I imagine a Filipino or additional Israeli team, obliged by the EuroLeague to recruit some European players, coached by Dimitris Itoudis / Željko Obradović / Igor Kokoškov / Erdem Can / Darko Rajaković. These teams could substitute some former EuroLeague participants, banned after the aggressive war vs Ukraine.
Re: How do you handle these kinds of situations?
arbusers wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:47 pm
Monaco and Bologna was not playing in this league some years ago, and look at them today.
I am sure there are wealthy people looking for an opportunity to entry in this business, and this is the key. Another key is thresholds to the numbers of non European players per team. I believe there should be a minimum number of (real) Europeans playing in each team. This would bring in more talents that would react in even stronger national teams.
Agreed to a very big extent. See the number of local players in Greek/Serbian teams, competing in the EuroLeague...
Beyond that, I wonder about the future petrodollar-backed non-European teams that will one day be the new members of the EuroLeague.
However, I think some cases such as Maccabi Tel Aviv have a positive influence over that League, and I imagine the hypothetical case if some day top-notch Philippine Basketball teams join. There are very classy basketball teams in that country, playing exciting games! I imagine a Filipino or additional Israeli team, obliged by the EuroLeague to recruit some European players, coached by Dimitris Itoudis / Željko Obradović / Igor Kokoškov / Erdem Can / Darko Rajaković. These teams could substitute some former EuroLeague participants, banned after the aggressive war vs Ukraine.
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