Arbusers

arb12 wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:30 pm

Beyond that, I wonder about the future petrodollar-backed non-European teams that will one day be the new members of the EuroLeague.
However, I think some cases such as Maccabi Tel Aviv have a positive influence over that League, and I imagine the hypothetical case if some day top-notch Philippine Basketball teams join. There are very classy basketball teams in that country, playing exciting games!

It would be a great mistake to allow fake teams from the gulf to play in the league. I can understand (even though disagree) with some games played there for advertisement reasons, but creating teams out of the blue is not a good paradigm.
Maccabi Tel Aviv would do much better this year of able to play at home. Let's not forget that one of the best teams ever in Euroleague was that of Maccabi with Saras and the rest of the guys.
As for the Phillies, time difference will not allow.

Spanish ACB, Tenerife vs Gran Canaria now,
One of the most valuable moments was the unusual error in the attack by Tenerife at 72:78 if I am not mistaken. What a good market trigger for some low-risk positions given the minutes to go!

Addendum:
Somewhere at the moment of 01:33 minutes before the end of this clash, hedging the risk was a possible solution, but in my opinion, there was a better time to do it from a profit optimization/risk optimization perspective!

ATP Miami Open,
What a resurrection for Dimitrov vs. Tabilo from the point of 6:7, 6:6 (2:5) and the market odds followed the lower expected +EV probabilities in the 2nd set tiebreak interval from 2:5 to 7:5!
Later the value has gone.

San Marino vs St. Kitts & Nevis again, they will start within a few minutes,

As for the first game between those teams days ago, the Asian odds compilers incorporated into the initial odds some expectations of a first victory for Sammarinese since 2004, but they published wrong pre-match odds as a whole (MoneyLine, also Asian Handicap, Over/Under and so on) and that was the basis for a heavy market attack, even some wrong odds were published later in live mode!

In my opinion, the Asians are looking for more balanced pre-match odds for today's play in certain markets and shifted assigned weight to St. Kitts and Nevis compared to the match days ago.

However, there is a stable basis for loading up the guns on some wrong pre-estimated markets!

I would like to speak about yesterday's game between LA Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks and especially about the behaviour of LeBron James.

First of all, could someone explain why LeBron didn't play?
I recall a game when Giannis Antetokounmpo was denying and stoping James in a not so elegant way. That wasn't good for LeBron's public image.

So, instead of sitting down and admire the game of co-players and opponents, LeBron decided to count the seconds of Giannis in the free throw lines. See video below.



It is time for you to retire Lebron.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:55 pm

The "Spurs winter/spring'24" mini-project is currently underway, with new attempts aimed at better-calculated probabilities, but no sustained long-term proven success at the moment.
This work is just the old "Spurs autumn'23" but some new tune-ups have been loaded due to San Antonio's obviously improved games lately.

After some stop-loss/hedging operations (for example against City Thunder 132:118 and vs Rockets 101:103) I decided to introduce a narrow floating zone of preliminary estimates (Wembanyama and coach Popovich only) and a wide zone (floating point method) into the Model.
In addition, the increased relative weighting of long-term Charts and Statistics (carefully selected by me), plus an extreme solution - how exactly to interpolate the probabilities of Spurs finishing 2023/24 given the long-term Graphics for the period from 2013/14 till 2022/23 seasons plus the special charts and data for 1996/97 (20W/62L) - I have thousands of observations and that's why I made this decision.

The last 2 games, so far so good (I mean the Model's last triggers for San Antonio vs. Nuggets 106:117 and vs Nets 122:115), but the following hypothetical issues are in focus:
- Two fairly well "predicted" games are literally nothing for future behavior from here on out. The regular NBA'23/24 season is coming to an end, therefore "Spurs winter/spring'24" could be the basis for future Models about Spurs' 2024/25 season, provided the team core is relatively unchanged (The duo of Wembanyama/Popovich is required, otherwise the future Project is simply NULL).
- Changed basis of Money line forecasts have some hidden specifics despite their relativity to Spread markets to some extent.
- 14 games to go, and the primary task - true MoneyLine odds are in calculation now. The secondary task - the real probabilities of the Spurs winning at least 6 to avoid the balance of 1996/97 are under processing now, far before publishing by some in Vegas/Asia. Iterations/updates are needed. Not an easy task. No guarantee at all. But that mind task attempt is exceptional and joyful, as well as the core of that lovely Game!
-Regardless of the above (general MoneyLine markets), I think the Point Spread markets would calculate more true probabilities based on new experimental setups.
- Some hypothetical weapons for the attack of the Mavericks@ Spurs markets: the new experimental weight of Irving in the Model / the probability of Luka Dončić's reaching the maximum of his sporting form if San Antonio breaks Mavericks' initial plan considering his hamstring problem, and so forth.

Golden States Warriors @ Spurs has started, Q2 now,

When it comes to the efficiency of all my custom-tuned Models, the "Spurs winter/spring'24" project surprisingly moved ahead of almost all my current projects regarding other sports (except for all my projects regarding IPL 2024, that kind of sport has been covered by solid Logic and the IPL tournament has unbeaten liquidity).
I'd like to confirm that all the experimental tune-ups from my previous Spurs post have been moved to fully operational ones. I'm extremely happy that Vegas/Asia didn't react so well in pre-match estimations, that's why the three consecutive victories vs. Knicks 130:126, vs. Jazz 118:111, and vs. Suns 104:102 generated more valuable payouts than expected.
However, I decided to make some improvements to the current Model tune-ups:
- I spotted the way Asia/Vegas reacted to the last San Antonio Spurs' team winning streak and the raised market risk components, so I changed the way of calculation of some Model's components (here I mean some things, such as the changed weight, assigned to the probabilities of avoiding or not the 20W/62L series 1996/97, eight games to the end, starting from today, and some others major settings);
- The odds compilers still have some weaknesses in the Spread markets, but some changes are needed;
- The Spread markets before the start of the Warriors @ Spurs game, revealed some hidden opportunities for market attacks (moving of lines such as Spurs -8.5, -9, -9.5, -10, -10.5 compared to my prognosis point);
- The "Middles" are even easier than the past periods, Gregg here is relatively predictable;
- The Wembanyama/Popovich Zone in the Model is extremely solid, but I introduced slightly different probabilities to Wembanyama's neutralization;
- And so forth.

Let's see what happens.

Any NBA modelers here?

Tonight is the last day of the Euroleague regular season. Especially for this day, it is a mistake (Spanish mafia?) that last round games are played in different days. The game that will have all eyes on is Olympiacos - Fenerbahce.
Have a look at the standings.
Consider the potential games.
And then think who will win tonight.

Obviously, when it comes to some "black box" analysis, interpolation and also extrapolation are some of the most difficult tasks in modelers' work. When these are combined with appropriate methods, calculations of probabilities for a given array of events such as A={αij} are much easier.
Some examples (calculation tasks in some projects that started a few months ago):
- Likelihood of Bayer'04 to win competitions X, Y, and Z under Xabier Alonso, considering Bayer'04 never won X before 2024 despite Christoph Daum's amazing work (why?), won Y under Dragoslav Stepanović (why?) and won Z under Erich Ribbeck (why?);
Also runner-up in all X, Y, and Z tournaments in 2002 (analysis of the big failure in all of those finals within a few days);
- Likelihood of the SA Spurs winning X times in the next Y games to avoid a repeat of their 1997 NBA debacle (why?);
Also acceptable calculation of probability in Spread markets;
Probability of catch odds > N vs. very big NBA sharks (Kelly Criterion immediately kicks in) in MoneyLine markets, etc.;
- And so forth.

Some experimental tasks are in progress, for example:
- Analysis of an atypical "black box" in Spartak vs CSKA clash, Bulgarian NBL, starting on April 19th. The last three consecutive matches between these teams gave exactly a 4-point difference at the end.
In case you're wondering about these teams, the top teams in NBL basketball have some similarities to the Greek A2 Elite League, their second-tier level actually. The CSKA team returned to the NBL a few years ago and so far its statistics and data are insufficient, but Spartak has good ones. A long time ago, Spartak, full of domestic players only (under the name Plama due to sponsorship reasons) defeated Real Madrid (full of stars such as Pablo Laso and Dejan Bodiroga on the pitch, led by Željko Obradović) at home, 93:84 for the EuroCup, group C.
- Some interesting cases as above (point spread probabilities, etc.) but in the Philippine Cup. The tournament is in progress now, backed by excellent stats and data! Basketball in this country is very good and enjoyable to watch and I think the Philippine teams should be invited to at least the EuroLeague/NBA pre-season tournaments/friendlies.
- Naturally, one of the most interesting tasks is to calculate some probability of the final result for the winner of Hellenic Basketball in their top-notch GBL A1 for the season 2023/24.
For some reason, I'm digging into the "black box" below. Some custom PAO & OLY Exponentials are crossed into the central zone of the rectangle with coordinates (2020;3) (2020;4) (2021;3) (2021;4). A properly assigned weight to some elements of the long-term chart plus some formulas would give some signals, helping to "predict" the 2023/2024 winner.
I'm trying to build the hypothetical change of some custom graphics, provided that Olympiakos had not opted out of the GBL A1 in the 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 seasons. Here I mean, that both PAO & OLY are most likely to be seen on the graphics on rows 3,4, or 4,3 (i.e. 1st and second or vice versa) at the end of those competitions. But the probability of this is not 100% at all, see 2004, 2005 and 2019.
Retrospectively, the crossing of the Red Exponential & Mean, and also the near zone of the crossing of the Green Exponential and Mean pinpointed the 2nd OLY title under Dušan Ivković in GBL A1(after 1997 one), Ivković's dominance over Željko Obradović in the short run and also the Obradović's departure after the 2011/12 race. And other custom graphics examples, of course.

Naturally, a much greater weighting of statistics and data for the current season is crucial for building some probabilities of Winner/Runner Up, but a little help from well-chosen middle-term and long-term graphics often makes some hidden things clear.

Let's now enjoy the second half of Hellenic Basket Superclásico PAO vs Olympiakos.