Arbusers

Maybe it's worth to take a closer look right now at the Chinese Basketball Play-Off, Beijing Ducks vs Jilin. At the Half-Time, the Heavy Favorite team (accordin' to the agencies) is ten points behind. The third quarter has just started.

Spanish Basketball, Betis vs Murcia. Huge odds movement from the match kick-off till the half-time. Several facts for the fundamental back-end: Previous round, the ultimate in the table Betis team, playing literally for nothing, missed the win away in Tenerife. Overtime performance and some stats show us some potential to price our odds prior to today's match.
At half-time, vs Murcia (such as the Tenerife team battling for the Play-Offs stage), Betis are again ahead. Evans is a top striker as in the previous match. On the other hand, more of the major stats are in visitors' favor and they can't afford to lose here. The odds movement till now provided that the players didn't accept immediately the agencies' ones pre-match, assured some profit.
Two or three major scenarios are possible for the final attempt of the Murcia team to attack. The players may await acceptable Risk/Reward ratios for every possible scenario and to open new positions.
Third-quarter is in progress at the moment. The odds are moving very fast.

The NCAA Semifinals odds are priced in a similar range prior to Kick-Off, but my viewpoint is slightly different.
The first Semifinal has a slight favorite prior to the Kick-Off. Kansas has a winning percentage of 0.824 during the regular season, the Villanova team has 0.788. Both of the teams finished in a superior manner last matches in the regular stage. I didn't accept the initial odds. However, the second step is to see their in-play performance and to act accordingly. Currently, in the first half, the Kansas team is much better. Seeking for the value at some circumstances, if they appear in the second half.

A similar range of odds (Moneyline circa 1.5, the spread about minus 3.5 or minus 4 points) prior to the start is published regarding the second Semifinal - Duke (0.824) vs North Carolina (0.727). Beware, a month ago in the regular season, the heavy favorite Duke team (despite the odds, circa minus 11 pts according to the initial published Spread, and circa 1.15 Moneyline), was defeated by North Carolina after the superior second half, 81:94 at the end. The major stats are in Duke's favor, though. Personally seeking different odds to make entry points here before the Kick-Off. And later, during the game, I'm going to make decisions according to the pitch events.

Deutscher Bundesliga 2. The Nürnberg team minutes ago just have almost reduced the probability to be a powerful factor for the First Bundesliga qualification battle. For simplicity and practical reasons, my model was loaded by four teams battling for the Bundesliga 1 - Werder, Darmstadt, Sankt Pauli'10, and Schalke'04, separated by two points six rounds before the end.
Some data for mentioned four teams, the stats, strengths, and weaknesses may be useful for building an initial model for the last six rounds. Therefore players must estimate some probabilities: general group 3 from 4 teams and short group 2 from 4 for direct success for the Bundesliga 1 promotion. The next stage is to seek adequate odds from the agencies.
The same model, year by year, is spotted again in Bundesliga 2. The Werder team today demonstrates that. No heavy dominance at all no matter the quality or ranking of a given team. That's why the odds for so-called "favorites" in that tier are bigger than Bundesliga 1, but at the price of the "surprising" result when the average player doesn't expect that. The next possibility is diggin' in the performance and more precious estimation and comparing to the published odds to extract some value, but is it worth making that step, provided that Bundesliga 1 matches have much better liquidity than Bundesliga 2 ones? One impression regardin' the Schalke'04 team, still can't overcome the little chaos in two situations: when are losing the ball possession and when they are forced to score. An additional subjective impression is, that lately, they are playing with almost their full sporting potential unlike the other three mentioned teams at that stage. Another hint, sometimes early German news may be useful before the odds are changed.

EPL, Man City vs Liverpool. The game after something 65 minutes is against the probabilities, implied by the initial odds so far, especially visitors' odds. I'm not sure that full hedging operations to secure profit are the most valuable now, better partial hedging and awaiting the substitutions for some game change.

PAOK Thessaloniki vs Marseille. Twenty minutes of the match run time were enough for some odds reversal in slight PAOK's favor, which tended to follow the direction as they were prior to the beginning in some agencies. When later the possession reversed in Marseille's favor, combined with some technical indicators being crossed, the visitor team scored.
In my view, due to the low rates of some major non-quantitative indicators for the French team in the first half, will be a good base to have a look at the goals markets, provided that an acceptable Risk/Reward ratio appears. An additional condition is further analysis of Sampaoli's approach later in the second half.

I really enjoy your posts but what is the meaning of them if there is no real suggestions to bet on any market.
Thank you for the PAOK V Marseille comment, but what is the bet here?

crowned wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:30 am

I really enjoy your posts but what is the meaning of them if there is no real suggestions to bet on any market.
Thank you for the PAOK V Marseille comment, but what is the bet here?

@ Crowned,
Thanks for your interest,
I can't afford to suggest direct betting suggestions. On one hand, I'm neither a tipster nor selling anything regarding my system approach. I simply slowly upgrade my model over the years and share some impressions about pre-match and in-play situations. On the other hand, every fact I've spotted and shared in the topic is a potential or real odds-changing one, provided that both raw statistical indicators and quality (non-quantitative) estimations are processed in a quality manner, including computing some probabilities to happen or not to happen the event X or event Y. Thus the triggers by the model include odds-making (100 divided by the probability - that is for EU odds) and I can compare my odds to the market ones. A very important part of the process is money management, of course.
In addition, the quality analysis is very hard, it's a subjective one and varies from person to person, that's why it's recommended to make it for yourself and to continue to learn over the years.

I'm not a forecaster on every single market, my aim is to "catch" the general +EV when it comes to a group of events (trading or value betting), according to the Probability Theory. That is another reason for not publishing my direct betting advice here, but the idea behind some impressions is in some indirect way to hint at some useful things.

These in the topic are only my opinions and nothing more, don't know if they are correct or wrong. I'm glad when reading the forum, the people are exchanging some expertise and viewpoints.

Regarding your question about PAOK vs Marseille, let me explain.
In terms of some quantitative indicators, data, and technical analysis: The odds across the markets were moving from one point to another. PAOK's win was priced at the odds near to 3 at a moment pre-match. Very well known to me are Lucescu's typical approaches and PAOK's style of play. Some probabilities arose happened to move the odds in one direction if some spotted by me indicators tell me about that. For instance, combinations of possession, attacks, and many other stats indicators, plus continuous monitoring and subjective assessment of the players and coaches' decisions, result in instant probability making on-the-fly. That's why if your model computes some probability for the PAOK's odds moving from near 3 far before the Kick-Off, till about 2.7 in the 15th or 20th minute, you may act accordingly.

Interestingly, like some Forex methods, when some monitored by me indicators crossed each other at some points, the goal was scored.

Due to the fact, that both Sampaoli and Bielsa are among the last South American old-school coaches, many of their decisions are predictable on some occasions;

Most recent Sampaoli's approach and its implementations by the players. Spotted things not only about Marseille but CAM Atlético-Mineiro under Sampaoli's management.

Marseille's defense in European tournaments this season has one model, in the French Ligue has similar, but not the same in similar situations;

The above, plus other info and in-play stats, produces the probability for PAOK's attacking strength to vary or not during the second half i.e. the probability for the Argentinian coach to neutralize the opponents' attack.

It's your decision how to act in similar situations.

Monte Carlo ATP Masters semifinal, clay surface tournament.
Again and again, the enigmatic Grigor Dimitrov. The prematch analyses are very hard when his event is coming. With more than a decade in big tennis, the former ATP number three is maybe the strongest player among those of his generation, who almost wasted their talent, but he's never been considered to be excluded from sporadic breakouts. Even on the clay surface, where Dimitrov historically is not so strong.
The classical technical analysis, based on his matches' stats and other indicators, is much less useful for generating valid conclusions, than if that kind of analysis is applied to most of the other high-ranked tennis ATP players. When it comes to the fundamental analysis, here things are even much more complicated than the technical one, mentioned above.
He is maybe the only one, who may access with ease several times ATP Grand Slams semifinals and ATP Masters semifinals, and be beaten with ease by world number 405 Kevin King. The number of his losses against players who resided out of the Top 100 is unusual for a top player like him.

After a long time of observations, regarding pre-analysis when Dimitrov's appearance is coming, two pure non-sporting factors have to be counted:
Psychological resilience. The number of meltdowns in his matches is countless so far;
Other behind-the-scenes factors are suspected.

Among the precautions are:
Minimal amount to participate pre-match, if triggers appeared;
Mostly in-play decisions to participate;
Monitoring the events on the pitch and if something unusual is coming, to exit;
The technical analysis graphics and data are organized at unusual intervals. In combination with monitoring the game, these give an advantage prior to happening the unusual things if they happen at all.

Your opinions?

Serbian derby Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade. After the first half, the slight advantage in terms of some selected stats in Crvena Zvezda's favor isn't exactly corresponding to the pre-match probabilities, implied by the odds. On the other hand, the medium-term curve, similar to the Forex-like EMA describing both the teams' appearances, is similar to what was on the pitch in the first half.
At the moment odds for a draw are below 1.8. Milan Pavkov has entered, but no result, excluding the higher possession. I'm waiting for another substitution in the next several minutes to confirm or not the selected entry/exit point.

Monte Carlo ATP Masters final. Some very good possible situations, if they arise, at some predefined odds and other factors will secure an acceptable ratio of Risk/Reward.
Among these are, accordin' to my backtests and probability scenarios:

If the first set results in a win for the Spaniard and no injury for the Greek;
Initial breaks in Davidovich Fokina's favor, and constant monitoring of Tsitsipas' self-control level;
Assessment about is it worth entering the current levels of AH or not, combined with a possibility to hedge in in-play mode, or not.

And many others, of course.

Because of his youth and temperament, Tsistsipas is a waif of his psychology. He is the best player when his psychology is good, and the worst when it is bad. This is the field he should be working in and I m sure he does work on it. Other than that, my favourite player as I am waiting for the dinosaurs to retire. Can't wait to see him live in a Grand Slam final again.

I think so too. Medvedev, Tsitsipas, and some others are among the future Big Three or Big Four. From the wagering point of view, the behavior of these players, if constant monitoring and proactive behavior from the bettors are implemented, many points could be achieved when the current in-play odds are still unchanged. Their current self-control is not the same as their sporting potential. I've remembered Federer's lack of self-control in his young years.

In addition, when it comes to Tsitsipas, I spotted him when he was below ATP rank 200 or 300 or something. At this time, he had to play qualifications to enter the tournaments. I have the impression, that at that stage of his career, maybe he was more calm behavior than nowadays, but this is my subjective impression. The Star-illness is his big enemy today.

Medvedev will be asked to declare his faith in peace at a point.
Djokovic will be asked to get jabbed at another point.
It is getting more politics than anything else.