hi. i am a value bettor (steam chaser)
sometimes i hedge back my bet if the odds are reversed
how to calculate the EV of middles? since the hedge bet i took is always have book juice
i try to found few articles about middles but there is no exact way to calculate the EV in simple way
from what i know:
we must need to know the estimated chance of that situation to be happen, but i think i will not have enough time to calculate those in realtime wihle the odds is still moving around near kick off time
thank you for any insight
how to calculate EV of middles?
-
arb12
- Totally Pro
- Karma: 23
Post
Hello,
In the beginning, this is not an easy task. Later after systemic practice, it's easier.
You said you are a value position player in terms of picking the "steamers", therefore you can calculate the hypothetical expected value here. From that point on, you could simply broaden your mindset and practice. Plenty of Socratic questioning would help you learn to calculate the expected value of the "middles" instantly:
- Step one. Assuming you specialize in steamers market positions, what about drifters? If year over year you are successfully identifying "steamers", what exactly are the characteristics of "drifters"? When and how exactly you could recognize + EV on "drifters", while you're practicing value betting? Seek it for 10.000 markets and summarize.
- Step two. You say you sometimes use hedging. Trading is a close approach here. So, when exactly do you hedge a "steamer"? Calculate the expected value for the equivalent position here. Summarize that for 10.000 markets.
Make the same equivalent position EV calculation as above, but for the "drifters" hedge position.
- Step three. Broaden step two for the trading approach. What about trading complicated equivalent +EV positions vs normal positions?
- Step four. Make a clear difference when/why/why not using approaches 1, 2, 3 or something better (non mentioned here) in a given market case X or Y. Calculate hypothetical EV in any possible approach in case of X, respectively Y.
- Step five. Now you can calculate whatever you want very fast, assuming your journey crossed thousands of practices.
Return to building the "middles" approach. Have you seen something new before? Are equivalent approach 2 or even approach 3 helpful here in the building of the given "middle"? Is a given specific "middle" Y more valuable in terms of EV than approach 2, 3, or even quite a different approach in the long run? Why? What about different parameters belonging to the "middle" Z compared to Y? Why?
And so forth.
Two examples:
- GBL A1, Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos, held a day ago.
Consider the variants: Starting published AH (-6) points. Your own calculated true AH should be (N) points. Why exactly did you calculate N and was that + EV or not? You have all the pre-match info in order to compose the right AH line: the current form of all the players, strengths and weaknesses of both the teams, the most recent cumulative team form, managing style of both coaches, tons of stats, data, various graphics, personal sporting impressions from watching the last domestic and international matches PAO vs Partizan & Lavrio vs PAO and respectively OLY vs Maccabi & OLY vs Kolossos.
73:58 somewhere in the last quarter (remember a six-point initial pre-match handicap according to the agencies). There are minutes to go. Let's assume, until that moment you had M number of "middling" operations through various lines, securing the corridor (X ; Y). What exactly middling operations will you include later or not to? Why?
- Sacramento Kings. That's the modern Agatha Christie's thriller. Or Vegas' savior. The "middles", the AH and the Money Lines are very interesting here. You have to decompose Mike Brown's mind and what will he prefer for the next 10 days. The best European player Sasha Vezenkov, who scored 29 pts for Olympiakos vs Real Madrid in the EuroLeague Final 2023, was given a minor presence here. I think if Kostas Sloukas had moved here, he would have been given the same.
Sacramento's starting five, the rotation, the tactics changing when things are good/ not good... Brown & the Kings secure prognostic brainstorming more often than the initial team quality indicates.
Re: how to calculate EV of middles?
mita8888 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 3:20 pmhi. i am a value bettor (steam chaser)
sometimes i hedge back my bet if the odds are reversed
how to calculate the EV of middles? since the hedge bet i took is always have book juice
i try to found few articles about middles but there is no exact way to calculate the EV in simple way
from what i know:
we must need to know the estimated chance of that situation to be happen, but i think i will not have enough time to calculate those in realtime wihle the odds is still moving around near kick off time
thank you for any insight
Hello,
In the beginning, this is not an easy task. Later after systemic practice, it's easier.
You said you are a value position player in terms of picking the "steamers", therefore you can calculate the hypothetical expected value here. From that point on, you could simply broaden your mindset and practice. Plenty of Socratic questioning would help you learn to calculate the expected value of the "middles" instantly:
- Step one. Assuming you specialize in steamers market positions, what about drifters? If year over year you are successfully identifying "steamers", what exactly are the characteristics of "drifters"? When and how exactly you could recognize + EV on "drifters", while you're practicing value betting? Seek it for 10.000 markets and summarize.
- Step two. You say you sometimes use hedging. Trading is a close approach here. So, when exactly do you hedge a "steamer"? Calculate the expected value for the equivalent position here. Summarize that for 10.000 markets.
Make the same equivalent position EV calculation as above, but for the "drifters" hedge position.
- Step three. Broaden step two for the trading approach. What about trading complicated equivalent +EV positions vs normal positions?
- Step four. Make a clear difference when/why/why not using approaches 1, 2, 3 or something better (non mentioned here) in a given market case X or Y. Calculate hypothetical EV in any possible approach in case of X, respectively Y.
- Step five. Now you can calculate whatever you want very fast, assuming your journey crossed thousands of practices.
Return to building the "middles" approach. Have you seen something new before? Are equivalent approach 2 or even approach 3 helpful here in the building of the given "middle"? Is a given specific "middle" Y more valuable in terms of EV than approach 2, 3, or even quite a different approach in the long run? Why? What about different parameters belonging to the "middle" Z compared to Y? Why?
And so forth.
Two examples:
- GBL A1, Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos, held a day ago.
Consider the variants: Starting published AH (-6) points. Your own calculated true AH should be (N) points. Why exactly did you calculate N and was that + EV or not? You have all the pre-match info in order to compose the right AH line: the current form of all the players, strengths and weaknesses of both the teams, the most recent cumulative team form, managing style of both coaches, tons of stats, data, various graphics, personal sporting impressions from watching the last domestic and international matches PAO vs Partizan & Lavrio vs PAO and respectively OLY vs Maccabi & OLY vs Kolossos.
73:58 somewhere in the last quarter (remember a six-point initial pre-match handicap according to the agencies). There are minutes to go. Let's assume, until that moment you had M number of "middling" operations through various lines, securing the corridor (X ; Y). What exactly middling operations will you include later or not to? Why?
- Sacramento Kings. That's the modern Agatha Christie's thriller. Or Vegas' savior. The "middles", the AH and the Money Lines are very interesting here. You have to decompose Mike Brown's mind and what will he prefer for the next 10 days. The best European player Sasha Vezenkov, who scored 29 pts for Olympiakos vs Real Madrid in the EuroLeague Final 2023, was given a minor presence here. I think if Kostas Sloukas had moved here, he would have been given the same.
Sacramento's starting five, the rotation, the tactics changing when things are good/ not good... Brown & the Kings secure prognostic brainstorming more often than the initial team quality indicates.
- mita8888
- Gaining experience
- Karma: 1
-
RB-Simon
- Gaining experience
- Contact:
- Karma: 6
- Location: Sweden
Post
Re: how to calculate EV of middles?
Getting the EV involves calculating the probability the (up to four) different outcomes, from the sharp fair odds. This is generally not something you can do very quickly while betting. We have considered adding it to RebelBetting, it would make trading in middles much more profitable.
There is also an easier rule of thumb calculation where you get the "middles profit/risk ratio":
ratio = middleHitProfit * (window / cost)
middleHitProfit = profit if you win both sides
window = size of your middle, so OU 1.5 vs 2.5 has a window of 1
cost = the average cost if your middle does not hit
There is also an easier rule of thumb calculation where you get the "middles profit/risk ratio":
ratio = middleHitProfit * (window / cost)
middleHitProfit = profit if you win both sides
window = size of your middle, so OU 1.5 vs 2.5 has a window of 1
cost = the average cost if your middle does not hit
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