Huge live surebet?!

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Huge live surebet?!

Mon Sep 09, 2013 2:58 pm

Hi! Could someone explain this to me because my head hurts..

I was watching the odds movement on oddsportal for the live match Cyprus U21 - Italy U21 at approx 85 min. with the result 0-1 the odds for handicap +0.5 were:

Image

The 4.57 odd for Italy is from Pinnacle, while the 15 is from a Softbook, I checked and the odds were also on the respective sites, not only on oddsportal.

I do not understand! Since Italy is winning as the current result is 0-1, there are only 5 minutes left and Italy is better than Cyprus, how Pinnacle odd for Italy is 4.57 ? Also another bookie (third row in the image) is aligned with Pinnacle odds. But it makes more sense the odd offered from the other soft bookie Cyprus AH+0.5 @15 since there is not very time left for score another goal.

While I was writing the post, the game has ended and Italy won 2-0, so I would have won the bet at Pinnacle, right?

I haven't played this arb because I'm inexperienced and it seemed to good to be true, but it seems to me the Pinnacle odds wasn't right. I wanted to know what are your thougths. There is some obvious error that I have missed? If I had played it the softbook will had me flagged? Or I have missed a very good opportunity?
kustef
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Re: Huge live surebet?!

Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:12 pm

it was mistake by pinnacle probably, you could be happy that you didnt place this surebet, because pinnacle void such odds mistakes
qbet
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Re: Huge live surebet?!

Mon Sep 09, 2013 3:57 pm

There is no mistake but it's no arb either. Pinnacle doesn't take into account the current score in their live AH markets so Italy would need to win by 2 goals in order for you to win, which is pretty hard given that we are in the 85th minute. If you want to bet on Italy to win go to the 1X2 market. Same goes for Asian bookies.

Also I wouldn't even trust a free service for pre-match odds, let alone in-play where prices move much faster.
pescu23
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Re: Huge live surebet?!

Mon Sep 09, 2013 5:45 pm

qbet wrote: There is no mistake but it's no arb either. Pinnacle doesn't take into account the current score in their live AH markets so Italy would need to win by 2 goals in order for you to win, which is pretty hard given that we are in the 85th minute. If you want to bet on Italy to win go to the 1X2 market. Same goes for Asian bookies.

Also I wouldn't even trust a free service for pre-match odds, let alone in-play where prices move much faster.
I completely agree here.

Is not a mistake.
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Re: Huge live surebet?!

Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:06 pm

qbet wrote: There is no mistake but it's no arb either. Pinnacle doesn't take into account the current score in their live AH markets so Italy would need to win by 2 goals in order for you to win, which is pretty hard given that we are in the 85th minute. If you want to bet on Italy to win go to the 1X2 market. Same goes for Asian bookies.
Thanks, that makes sense. Ironically the match ended 2-0 for Italy, the scored at 48' so I would have won!
There was also the book in the third row (BetVictor) that had the odds aligned with Pinnacle. So I suppose they also doesn't take into account current score in live AH. Since BetVictor is a softbook, how can I know which bookmakers does it account for current score in live AH and which not?

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