Formula to Find the exact EV

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sheep
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sheep

Formula to Find the exact EV
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:04:32 AM »

I use 2 valuebet alerts, and recently i am looking for new markets (e-sports), that my alerts, dont look, to despiste the bookmakers, i bet with 365 odds.

My strateg, was look for pinnacle odds, and assume that was the Sharp odds, and bet in 365, if find some value.

I try to make a math formula, to compair the odds, and find the ev, but my formula, doesnot match with the alerts (dont know where i am wrong), the alerts are rebel and trademate.

like an exemple, gonna use a game that show in the alert...

The game is a 2 way outcome, tha te odds in pinnacle are  2.72(outcome1) x  1.409 (outcome2), and the outcome 1 in 365 is 3.20, the alerts shows a value of 5.27%

In my formula, i put the 2 outcomes of pinnacle, to find the rake of the pinny, with the rake (7,18%), i can find the fair odds, and the probability, (2.9304 and 34,12%).

And with this probability i can multiply with the 365 odds, that is 3.20 x 0,3412 = 1,09184  =  9,184% EV+

9,1% is a big difference from 5,27%, so i dont know where is my error.

someone can help me with some explanation?

thanks, and sorry for my english
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kustef
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Re: Formula to Find the exact EV
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2020, 10:03:02 AM »

Hi

see here:
https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets

on the right side of the panel click on: "True odds" and your browser will automaticly download excel file..

There you have 4 methods of how to calculate true odds from bookmaker odds.

For more info about that methods read https://www.football-data.co.uk/wisdom_of_crowd_bets and whole site  ;)
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