Arbusers

tomtom70 wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 31, 2023 2:39 pm

Hi Cufs,

to answer your question whether you should run an MC I would first counter with a question: what do you want to prove with the MC?

Without having calculated the statistics, just from a quick look at the numbers, I would say that the strategy works well with the majority of handicaps. Where there are only few observations it is not quite unusual or unexpected that you get larger deviations from the mean (expected value), which is obviously something like + 8.77 %.

In an MC you should, however, make a reasonable assumption about the distribution of both the odds you use to test the strategy and the "true" distribution of results. That's where it is getting really difficult because the latter is obviously unknown.

As far as I know the (absolute) standard deviation of your results will rise with the square root of number n of simulations (this is because the sum of these individual distributions ultimatively converges to a standard normal distribution). This means, that the relative standard deviation (in % of your bank roll) will drop with 1/sqrt(n). So why should you do a MC? The results will show exactly this behaviour but are heavily dependent on the assumption of the edge you have (the mean of the distribution). I personally would not do it, but it obviously depends on what (and to whom) you want to show.

GNMbg wrote:can you share the website which provides the data? thanks