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Isn't the arb game dead?

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Yngwie
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:25 pm

Alfa1234 wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
Been parlay arbing for quite a while now. I'm not sure what you mean by changing the odd though?  How would you do that?  Once the ticket is made, the odds are set.
You can change the odds in your ticket as you want. Of course, total of odds can't be higher then the multiplier of parlay bet.

For example,

Let's say odds are,

Chelsea 1,50
Manchester United 1,80
Barcelona 1,30

Parlay pays: 3,51

You can change Chelsea odds but if you increase Chelsea odds, then odds for other bets will decrease.

You can change the odds like this:

Chelsea 1,40
Manchester United 1,70
Barcelona 1,47479

Odds may be different but parlay odds still 3,51. (2,51 to 1)

Math is something amazing, isn't it?  :D
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:12 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
Alfa1234 wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
Been parlay arbing for quite a while now. I'm not sure what you mean by changing the odd though?  How would you do that?  Once the ticket is made, the odds are set.
You can change the odds in your ticket as you want. Of course, total of odds can't be higher then the multiplier of parlay bet.

For example,

Let's say odds are,

Chelsea 1,50
Manchester United 1,80
Barcelona 1,30

Parlay pays: 3,51

You can change Chelsea odds but if you increase Chelsea odds, then odds for other bets will decrease.

You can change the odds like this:

Chelsea 1,40
Manchester United 1,70
Barcelona 1,47479

Odds may be different but parlay odds still 3,51. (2,51 to 1)

Math is something amazing, isn't it?  :D

I would assume that what you mean is betting at the price of the bookie and then setting your own virtual odd for the same events as long as they amounted to the total odds? that is also a risky gambling
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:26 pm

jagas wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
Alfa1234 wrote: Been parlay arbing for quite a while now. I'm not sure what you mean by changing the odd though?  How would you do that?  Once the ticket is made, the odds are set.
You can change the odds in your ticket as you want. Of course, total of odds can't be higher then the multiplier of parlay bet.

For example,

Let's say odds are,

Chelsea 1,50
Manchester United 1,80
Barcelona 1,30

Parlay pays: 3,51

You can change Chelsea odds but if you increase Chelsea odds, then odds for other bets will decrease.

You can change the odds like this:

Chelsea 1,40
Manchester United 1,70
Barcelona 1,47479

Odds may be different but parlay odds still 3,51. (2,51 to 1)

Math is something amazing, isn't it?  :D

I would assume that what you mean is betting at the price of the bookie and then setting your own virtual odd for the same events as long as they amounted to the total odds? that is also a risky gambling
No. There's no gambling.

Looks like I was unable to explain  :-[
Let me try again  :D

Actually, what you're doing here is, you cover only the risk in earlier arbs in order to get a snow ball effect (a massive increase) in later arbs.

Let's say you got,

Chelsea 1.50 (Opponent +0,50 is 3.50)
Porto 1.90 (Opponent +0,50 is 2.25)
Liverpool 1.40 (Opponent +0,50 is 3.50)

This parlay pays 3,99

You can change Chelsea odds.

You make Chelsea 1,40. Since you bet other side at 3.50, you don't make any profit in first leg at all.

Parlay was paying 3,99 with Chelsea. Well, you decreased Chelsea to 1,40.

So the remaining odds total is 2,85! (3,99 / 1,40)

You can keep Porto at 1,90. This way, you will have Liverpool at 1,50.
Alternatively, you can decrease Porto's price to 1,80. This way, you won't make any profit in second leg as well but if Porto wins, you will have Liverpol at 1,5833!

As you see, there's no risk or gambling. This strategy is useful specially if later arbs have a small or negative percentage.
Last edited by Yngwie on Sun Oct 04, 2020 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:41 pm

Hahahaha good lord that never even occured to me.  This is brilliant!

Basically, what Sawyer is saying is, you can decrease the odd at random for the first leg of your parlay (so it just breaks even) so you can increase the odd/arb for the later legs...which have a much higher stake so you can greatly increase your profits this way.  8)
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:10 am

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Postponing? Why? Seriously?  :D

More accounts = More profits!
Time! I wish I had more of that.

I think there's too much time for administration of soft accounts compared to potential gain.

I value bet mostly on small-medium markets on high limit offline books or on sharps. If I start spending time going back to the regular soft books (which limit more today than yesterday), I will make profits there, but it will probably be less than the lost profits on the offline books and sharps where I then can dedicate myself less. I've been developing and used bots as well as an attempt to free up some time, but both the technical part as well as the analyses of the results require time.

It has been a consciuous choice of mine to narrow the business and refine the techniques around the offline and sharp segment. A more subjective argument is that I value that sports betting is enjoyable and personally I thrive with my current setup where I get around and I am not restricted to sit in front of my screen, managing accounts.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
jagas wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: You can change the odds in your ticket as you want. Of course, total of odds can't be higher then the multiplier of parlay bet.

For example,

Let's say odds are,

Chelsea 1,50
Manchester United 1,80
Barcelona 1,30

Parlay pays: 3,51

You can change Chelsea odds but if you increase Chelsea odds, then odds for other bets will decrease.

You can change the odds like this:

Chelsea 1,40
Manchester United 1,70
Barcelona 1,47479

Odds may be different but parlay odds still 3,51. (2,51 to 1)

Math is something amazing, isn't it?  :D

I would assume that what you mean is betting at the price of the bookie and then setting your own virtual odd for the same events as long as they amounted to the total odds? that is also a risky gambling
No. There's no gambling.

Looks like I was unable to explain  :-[
Let me try again  :D

Actually, what you're doing here is, you cover only the risk in earlier arbs in order to get a snow ball effect (a massive increase) in later arbs.

Let's say you got,

Chelsea 1.50 (Opponent +0,50 is 3.50)
Porto 1.90 (Opponent +0,50 is 2.25)
Liverpool 1.40 (Opponent +0,50 is 3.50)

This parlay pays 3,99

You can change Chelsea odds.

You make Chelsea 1,40. Since you bet other side at 3.50, you don't make any profit in first leg at all.

Parlay was paying 3,99 with Chelsea. Well, you decreased Chelsea to 1,40.

So the remaining odds total is 2,85! (3,99 / 1,40)

You can keep Porto at 1,90. This way, you will have Liverpool at 1,50.
Alternatively, you can decrease Porto's price to 1,80. This way, you won't make any profit in second leg as well but if Porto wins, you will have Liverpol at 1,5833!

As you see, there's no risk or gambling. This strategy is useful specially if later arbs have a small or negative percentage.
Sawyer at this parlay all games are arbs.
I suppose that there is a time difference between the games.
How you are so sure that you will be able to cover the second and later the third leg?
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:21 pm

How you are so sure that you will be able to cover the second and later the third leg?
That's why I prefer to keep profit low on early legs. Even if odds change, you guarantee to make profit in later legs.

By the way, if first leg of parlay loses, you miss other arbs. It happens sometimes. This is part of the game..but Since we bet value, it doesn't happen often.

Btw, you can make parlay arbs even if 2 games are on same time. If anyone have a question mark about this, just let me know and I will explain with an example.
Last edited by Yngwie on Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:45 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:
How you are so sure that you will be able to cover the second and later the third leg?
That's why I prefer to keep profit low on early legs. Even if odds change, you guarantee to make profit in later legs.

By the way, if first leg of parlay loses, you miss other arbs. It happens sometimes. This is part of the game..but Since we bet value, it doesn't happen often.

Btw, you can make parlay arbs even if 2 games are on same time. If anyone have a question mark about this, just let me know and I will explain with an example.
Thank you for explaining.
Of course I would like you to give an example from parley bets at the same time.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:06 pm

There are 9 possible outccomes for a 2-leg parlay. If you back all the 8 other possilbe outcomes with proportional bets in order to win same ammount, you should be fine.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:38 pm

What excellent posts by Yngwie.
Yes, please go on with more examples.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:51 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
Can you also use it with valuebets (also with two games) or it is too risky?
ex.m.u. 2.5
    r.m. 1.3
    juve 1.1.
The first bet has 5% value and I don't cover it.If m.u. don't win I lost the bet.
The second and the third game are small negative arbs and I will cover both of them.
Is it a good strategy for better odds or actually like this the 5% value will turn to a negative value at the end?
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:49 pm

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
I see that changing the individual odds does not change the parlay odds but how do you change the indivdual odds? As far as I am concerned I know no bookie, where you can do that but I have the feeling, that I am missing out on something important :D
If you could explain, how one could change the odds in practice I would be very grateful. Thank you for sharing!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:04 pm

meisterhaft wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
I see that changing the individual odds does not change the parlay odds but how do you change the indivdual odds? As far as I am concerned I know no bookie, where you can do that but I have the feeling, that I am missing out on something important :D
If you could explain, how one could change the odds in practice I would be very grateful. Thank you for sharing!
You don't change them at the bookie, you virtually change them yourself as it suits you...the end result is the same mathematically.  If you have made a ticket for 100€ betting 3 games, each odd 2.0 you have a parlay paying 800€ if it wins.  You can "arb" the first game as if the odd was 1.5 with say no profit, then "arb" the 2nd game as if it was 2 and then the last game as if it was 2.667.  Your bet is made but you can adjust the counter bets by the odds you choose to set yourself, mathematically the end result is the same for your ticket but you can greatly increase profits by virtually creating a bigger arb in the last leg if you "decrease" the first odd and increase the last odd this way.  It's your choice.
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:00 am

Alfa1234 wrote:
meisterhaft wrote:
Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: Pregame arbing is dead mostly..Unless you're living in a location where you have access to sleepy bookies. Bookmakers limit very quickly when you bet value odds pregame. It takes longer for them to realize what you're doing when you're arbing live. Live arbing is my favourite arbing strategy recently..

My favourite arbing strategy was parlay arbing in the past but had been a long time since I made my last parlay arb. Man, I miss those bets! Parlay arb was an amazing tool to camouflage your action and boost your profits. Maybe you know, maybe you don't know; do you know you can change the odds in your bet ticket?

For example,

Dundee United Reserves 2,50
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,50


You can change odds in bet ticket how you want,
You can change odds like this for example;

Dundee United Reserves 2,00
Chelsea 1,30
Liverpool 1,875



Last leg of parlay (Liverpool) becomes 1,875 from 1,50! If opposite side is 3,20 which creates a %2.13 arb; Well, it becomes a Massive %18.23 ARB!

It's specially useful when arbing lower leagues where there's parlay requirement by some bookmakers. Anyway, I think live arbing is better. No void risk (almost), you get your money back quickly, your account lasts longer and you can catch goals which results in massive profits. Nothing feels like you pick Liverpool -1 and Salah scores a goal few seconds after and you see your cover bet in Pinnacle is rejected  :D
I see that changing the individual odds does not change the parlay odds but how do you change the indivdual odds? As far as I am concerned I know no bookie, where you can do that but I have the feeling, that I am missing out on something important :D
If you could explain, how one could change the odds in practice I would be very grateful. Thank you for sharing!
You don't change them at the bookie, you virtually change them yourself as it suits you...the end result is the same mathematically.  If you have made a ticket for 100€ betting 3 games, each odd 2.0 you have a parlay paying 800€ if it wins.  You can "arb" the first game as if the odd was 1.5 with say no profit, then "arb" the 2nd game as if it was 2 and then the last game as if it was 2.667.  Your bet is made but you can adjust the counter bets by the odds you choose to set yourself, mathematically the end result is the same for your ticket but you can greatly increase profits by virtually creating a bigger arb in the last leg if you "decrease" the first odd and increase the last odd this way.  It's your choice.
Exactly  ;) :D

This is the magic of Math!
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?

Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:17 am

Of course I would like you to give an example from parley bets at the same time.
When you parlay two events scheduled at same or similiar time. You have chance to get x25 of your arb profit. Yes, x25!

However, you reduce the overall profit little bit..but you keep your chance to hit the jackpot.

Allright, here's the parlay:

Man City 1,35    Saturday 17:00 (Lay is 1,25)
Liverpool 1,35    Saturday 17:15 (Lay is 1,25)


Stake: 3000€

The key is..We lay each bet seperate.

Risk for City is 1120,39€ Lay stake is 4481,56€.
Risk for Liverpool is 1120,39€. Lay stake is 4481,56€.

Let's have a look at scenarios now..

Both City and Liverpool win +226€ Profit
City wins, Lİverpool not winner  +226€ Profit
Liverpool wins, City not winner +226€ Profit

What if both Liverpool and City does not win?

Well, you HIT THE JACKPOT in that case!

+5739€ profit if both Liverpool and City fail to win.

Parlay bet lost -3000€
City lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)
Liverpool lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)

Net Profit: +5739€

PS: Betfair comission is %2.5

PS2: This strategy works best with short odds. Doesn't work very well on bigger odds.

PS3: If you think winning 2 lay bets is very unlikely, Well, think again! It just happened this weekend! Liverpool lost 7-2 while Leeds-Man City match ended 1-1.

PS4: If two events were scheduled at different times, and you were arbing classic way. You would make +223€ profit if first leg lost and +524€ profit if first leg was winner.

PS5: In stores 12 November.
Last edited by Yngwie on Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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