Arbusers

Ok,

so new user here.. Wanted to provide an example and find out if I am beating the closing line and placing a value bet.

So NBA Indiana Pacers were +12.5 at -107 on Pinnacle at the close.

Once the game started in the first quarter Indiana +12.5 changed to +132. I took this bet and ended up winning.

Did I beat the closing line? Was this a value bet? I think yes, but there those that say when you hit it live something is different. But how so ? Since the closing line before the game doesn't change once the game starts

@ Pri,
Do you come from the US or the Caribbean? Tell us about those bookies over there, if you want. American odds lines have some conveniences when we should correlate fast some points spreads or various quantities of data. It's a matter of habit. Euro odds and other expressions of odds are OK too.
Do you mean in your question Pacers@Warriors or Pacers@Suns? Personally didn't watch these ones. The last Pacers match I've participated in was a notable one Pacers@Clippers 133:139 when agencies anticipated circa 209 or 210 points to be scored WOW! Remember the fourth quarter, there were 78 points produced by the teams - close to average points, scored by a Euroleague top team for full match time (Olympiacos, Barça etc).
Now at your questions. First, it's preferable not to deal with closing lines in a classic way. Compile your own odds. Tricky indeed, but if you want to grow in that business, that's a must. At that point, you have ground for some comparisons and decisions, before kick-off time, and later when the event goes in-play mode.
Second, there is not fully clear the stage you've caught the hypothetical value. You've told us somewhere in the first quarter. Probably the favorite team produced some lead against the underdog and you made some bets, but it's not a completed task at all.
Let's say, Gargantuan pre-game analysis is needed. Historical data, various data sets, and so on.
Especially for the NBA in-play mode, several screens and fast data processing are needed. Stream/Satellite/Tv signal on one screen, and on the others ones - various data inflow and you're compiling these as fast as possible.
The pace of the game, coaches' decisions and their reflections and implementations by the players, last matches, future games, injuries, accumulated tiredness (LA to NY distance for instance), various statistics inflow during the gameplay are needed to be processed in realtime, and much more things. Sporting expertise is strongly advisable. Maths, Stats and Financials are mandatory too.
Triggers may appear. Proper money management may be considered. And so forth.
Finally, the value must be evaluated in the circumstances of the current moment you've made positions, not the closing lines. Additionally, the value has to be reevaluated that way - not if you've caught the win in the given event, but in the very long run if you are in a positive zone. To correct iterations - current data sets have to be updated during the event and the general data set must be updated after the match/season end, before another iteration and processing input in your model.

Addendum to the previous post - I am not against closing lines assessment, simply the agencies lately charge players by huge margins, lure them by value traps if something hidden they know (Asia, Singapore etc), lure the squares by these lines, especially when a strong favorite is aired by the odds. I personally prefer to manage closing lines in a non-standard way if involved with them.
And second, you've mentioned in your posting the first quarter of the game, desired spread and odds. Go further and analyze how the agencies treat spreads and totals pre-game, after every quarter, after half-time and later stages of the event nowadays. And compare the same things a decade or two ago. Do you remember, a long time ago, if projected points were let's say XX, then half-time they were priced XX/2?
Not only the agencies' approach to odds compiling. nowadays and the past times but do you remember players, coaches, common tactics in these years? Do you see the global picture's slow evolving during the decades? And on the other side, the shocking change for almost every team/player/agency in Covid years for the business?
Reanalyze several things and you will discover more to do and not to do. Step by step, you'll improve your operative model.

arb12 wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:18 pm

Addendum to the previous post - I am not against closing lines assessment, simply the agencies lately charge players by huge margins, lure them by value traps if something hidden they know (Asia, Singapore etc), lure the squares by these lines, especially when a strong favorite is aired by the odds. I personally prefer to manage closing lines in a non-standard way if involved with them.
And second, you've mentioned in your posting the first quarter of the game, desired spread and odds. Go further and analyze how the agencies treat spreads and totals pre-game, after every quarter, after half-time and later stages of the event nowadays. And compare the same things a decade or two ago. Do you remember, a long time ago, if projected points were let's say XX, then half-time they were priced XX/2?
Not only the agencies' approach to odds compiling. nowadays and the past times but do you remember players, coaches, common tactics in these years? Do you see the global picture's slow evolving during the decades? And on the other side, the shocking change for almost every team/player/agency in Covid years for the business?
Reanalyze several things and you will discover more to do and not to do. Step by step, you'll improve your operative model.

Wow.. Arb12, you gave me a load of different possibilities to ponder for a newbie. The value trap is a big one. I figured in Pre Game they would lure you with a value trap but once in game it gets more accurate. I am in the USA and deal with USA books. The market is very new and wild in the USA right now with all these new books and promos.

Pri wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:51 am

The market is very new and wild in the USA right now with all these new books and promos.

These are the times to make fortunes.
If I had the experience I have now back in 2003 when I started, I would make a million each day.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:37 pm

If I had the experience I have now back in 2003 when I started, I would make a million each day.

Yessss. This is the arbusers grandiose we love to hate. Could you explain how you could make a million each day back in 2003?

balls of steele wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:21 pm

Could you explain how you could make a million each day back in 2003?

Yes, I could. But before doing so, it is important to remember the period so you understand what I say. How old were you by 2003 really?

i for one am looking forward to the bet by bet breakdown of the 'million a day' arbusers strategy, maybe he means 1 million Uzbekistani soʻm?

when it comes to the NBA, just beat the closing vegas lines, and you will win.

the variables arb12 speaks of are the sort of things you think about 5 days before the game when the lines are weak or in very low level basketball in mozambique division 3

I don't think bookmakers set value traps. Consider the few sportsbooks that take the time to make their own opener. The last thing they are saying to themselves is, "what odds on this specific game will encourage our customers to make a negative EV bet."

Put up a line that hopefully draws equal action and move it depending where the money is being bet and by whom. Value traps are gambler folklore in my opinion.

Long term observation has shown that bookmakers indeed set up value traps. These traps will be deemed as...
-''better odds'' from the clueless bettor
-''arbing opportunity'' from arbers
-''value'' from value bettors
-''a fix'' from the speculation bettor
Out of these 4, the 2nd will make money no matter what, the 3rd will make more money in the long term, and the other 2 will simply gamble.

And why should a bookmakers set up a value trap? A simple answer would be, because he knows better.

arbusers wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:58 am

Long term observation .......

And why should a bookmakers set up a value trap? A simple answer would be, because he knows better.

Belgian Cup, Turkish Cup, Slovak/Czech Cup and The Winter competition, Lower Tier Cypriot and Hellenic divisions, South American and Asian domestic competitions, Canadian soccer and many more from time to time - for those "events" the classical Maths and Statistics aren't reliable at all for the analysis and entry points purposes. Seeing the events TV/Streams over the years and rethink before participating there. But Slavia Sofia is one of the "industry leaders" in its domicile in all the tournaments over the decades. Bookies know why. Avoid suspicious of them at any cost or apply Quantum Maths - Newtonian physics and Quantum physics analogy, if that kind of parallel is appropriate at all... Over the years, assuming that we saw almost everything, but they always may surprise all of us again by new astonishing release...

So you guys consider injury or fixed game information not available to the public but used to formulate odds a value trap?

turbobets wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:13 am

So you guys consider injury or fixed game information not available to the public but used to formulate odds a value trap?

@ Turbobets,
Not only these. In fact, things are so complicated and many amateurs are trapped easily. Pro or semi-pro participants, which not gamble but invest over the years, constantly have to test new approaches or hypotheses, preferably in agencies for that purpose - almost sure they are net losers there. These are so-called development costs, capitalizing in the future, provided that pro users can build and evolve the working operative model.
But even though that model was successfully built by some professionals, no guarantee of any kind for future performance. At a given stage pro has to use good surveillance of the sporting world's evolve and agencies' ones. Constantly have to change and improve things which don't provide good performance in the model already, nevertheless, they were good so far. Etc.