Money management valuebet live help me
- francesco
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Money management valuebet live help me
Hello everyone, I would like to ask for information so as not to lose all my capital on live valuebets. I want to start from a minimum odds of 1.60 to get to odds 10. By always betting 1% of the capital up to odds max 10, will I lose all my invested capital?
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Sandica9
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Re: mooney management valuebet live help me
You have to know your edge for each individual bet in order to determine the % of BR for each bet. You can estimate it by dividing the odds you bet by the 'true odds'. The true odds you can estimate by deducing the juice from your reference odds. After having the edge % you can go with a the form of Kelly that suits the best your risk tolerance.
francesco wrote: ↑Thu Jun 15, 2023 10:06 amHello everyone, I would like to ask for information so as not to lose all my capital on live valuebets. I want to start from a minimum odds of 1.60 to get to odds 10. By always betting 1% of the capital up to odds max 10, will I lose all my invested capital?
- francesco
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Re: mooney management valuebet live help me
so do you recommend the kelly formula rather than the flat bet?
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arbusers
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Re: mooney management valuebet live help me
There is another recommendation I could make. Of course it is open for debate, it has its pros and cons but if you are ready to sacrifice some time and money it will lead you to the correct results.
Start with a flat stake. When the sample is sufficient, say 300 bets, analyse the data and find the golden cut(s). Of course, if you use a lot of types of bets, then you will need a bigger sample, meaning more time, effort and lost potential profits, but you will have a better picture of what is going on.
Start with a flat stake. When the sample is sufficient, say 300 bets, analyse the data and find the golden cut(s). Of course, if you use a lot of types of bets, then you will need a bigger sample, meaning more time, effort and lost potential profits, but you will have a better picture of what is going on.
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Wolfie
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Re: mooney management valuebet live help me
This is very specific on the bookmakers you use. For example flat 100 eur stake the bookmaker X can accept it in all odds, while in bookmaker Y odds = 5 can have a max stake of 30 eur. So in some bookies you just cant use flat stake even if you wanted. If your account goes for manual checks to traders, flat stake can rise flags. But at the same time using kelly can rise a bigger flag. So its just trial and error depending on the bookmakers you use.
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Sandica9
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Re: mooney management valuebet live help me
Good advice, but people is always in a hurry. Why not try to play on paper 300 or x hundred bets and see if it works.
Kelly is proven as the best way to increase the bankroll, but there is one variable that people take at ease: the REAL EDGE.
Kelly is proven as the best way to increase the bankroll, but there is one variable that people take at ease: the REAL EDGE.
arbusers wrote: ↑Thu Jun 15, 2023 3:21 pmThere is another recommendation I could make. Of course it is open for debate, it has its pros and cons but if you are ready to sacrifice some time and money it will lead you to the correct results.
Start with a flat stake. When the sample is sufficient, say 300 bets, analyse the data and find the golden cut(s). Of course, if you use a lot of types of bets, then you will need a bigger sample, meaning more time, effort and lost potential profits, but you will have a better picture of what is going on.
Last edited by Sandica9 on Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sandica9
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Re: Money management valuebet live help me
And as a joke - once I was asked by the head of trading from a big betting company: what's your staking plan? And I said: anywhere between half-Kelly and full bankroll 
- voodoo
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Re: Money management valuebet live help me
Better have same net win amount, than use a flat stake for every bet... X stake at 1.60 and the same X stake at 10 seems risky to me. You can bet X euros at odds 1.9-3, Y euros at odds 3.01-5 etc. Also, generally i would suggest min odds higher than 1.6, better close to 2.00
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